Reeves needs faster UK growth than the OBR predicts for her budget to work

Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer touring a laboratory at University Hospital Coventry the day after the budget. The IBS says increased health spending is one reason spending growth is likely to remain high. Photograph: Darren Staples/Reuters

Choosing to hold a bumper tax-raising budget the day before Halloween was always going to create presentational problems for Rachel Reeves. If you announce plans to borrow more and increase the size of the state you can expect the headline writers to have fun at your expense. The Daily Telegraph’s “Nightmare on Downing Street” summed up the mood.

Reeves is not naive and knew what was coming. But while the chancellor would have preferred more positive headlines, a budget is judged not on its day one reception but over months and years.