How times change. The last time the local election seats up this week were contested in 2021, Boris Johnson was riding a “vaccine bounce”, and a wave of Tory gains prompted speculation of a decade of dominance. Three chancellors and two prime ministers on from Johnson’s high-water mark, his successor Rishi Sunak will be scanning a bleak electoral landscape for any glimmers of hope, while Keir Starmer will be looking for big breakthroughs to confirm that a red wave is indeed coming to Westminster.
The first big result will be Blackpool South in the small hours of Friday morning. Labour should win this “red wall” marginal comfortably on current polling, while anxious Conservatives will be watching the Reform UK vote share. Big early wins for Labour in the Westminster byelection and early counting councils will help the opposition set the tone for coverage of the long days of counting to follow.
