Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
AAP
AAP
Business
Poppy Johnston

Jobless rate stays at 3.5 per cent

The unemployment rate has not budged from its record low levels, but the official jobs figures nod to a labour market that won't get any tighter.

Just 900 jobs were added for the month, well below expectations and far fewer than the 33,500 lift in total employment in August.

And unemployment actually lifted by 8800, according to the national statistics bureau, adding 0.06 per cent to the jobless rate.

Thanks to rounding, the 3.54 per cent read in September remained the same as the 3.48 per cent figure in August.

The participation rate also stayed the same at 66.6 per cent.

The trend away from part-time work towards full-time work also continued.

Full-time employment rose by 13,000 and part-time employment fell by 12,400.

Total hours worked dropped off, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics saying this was less about illness and more about workers taking holidays.

"The number of people working fewer hours because they were sick was also higher than we usually see in September, but only around 14 per cent higher," the ABS's Bjorn Jarvis said.

"It is no longer around two to three times higher, as it was earlier in 2022."

On Thursday, the treasurer said he suspected COVID-related absences were keeping the unemployment rate low because employers had bolstered their workforces to make up for staff off sick.

Employment Minister Tony Burke said the September job figures proved the broken connection between low unemployment and strong wages growth.

"Unemployment has now been at these low levels for quite some time. And yet our wage price index remains at 2.6 per cent," he told reporters in Sydney.

He said wage growth was still well off the Reserve Bank of Australia's "anchor point" of 3.5 per cent, which is roughly how much the central bank thinks they should be increasing.

The employment minister will introduce legislation to parliament next week that includes several measures to drive wages growth, including new multi-sector bargaining rules.

Shadow employment minister Michaelia Cash said it was concerning to see fewer jobs created than anticipated.

She called on the government to quickly pass measures already approved by the Senate to double the amount pensioners can earn before their payment is affected from $300 to $600 a fortnight.

JP Morgan's Tom Kennedy said other job market indicators signalled a stabilising or softening unemployment figure in coming months.

He said new job vacancy data had been trending lower and weekly payroll data as measured by the ABS had started to decline.

"We retain the view that further declines in the jobless rate would be hard won, and we forecast increases from here," he said.

AMP Capital's Diana Mousina agreed the labour market was starting to soften and that unemployment may have bottomed out in July at 3.4 per cent.

She said the weaker-than-expected September employment data supported the RBA's decision to slow the pace of monetary tightening at its October meeting, and expects to see one last 25 basis point lift in November.

"But the overall tightness in the labour market means that employment situation is still very positive for consumers and that wages growth will rise," she said.

The economist expects easing growth in 2023 caused by interest rate hikes should see a slowdown in the massive numbers of open jobs, before feeding into a higher unemployment rate.

Ms Mousina said the jobless rate could tick above four per cent in 2023.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.