Trading up to land an elite player is one of the most thrilling possible outcomes for an NFL team entering a draft, and it’s rather easy to present the case for a team, like, say, the Green Bay Packers, to trade up for a pass-catcher, like, say, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Giving Jordan Love a potentially elite slot receiver could do wonders for his development and viability as a first-year starting quarterback.
Now, however, it’s time for the other side of the coin.
The Packers, as currently constructed, are not in a great position to trade up. And trading up for a receiver, while possible, might be a luxury this team cannot afford.
Let’s run down the reasons why the Packers should trade down from No. 15 in the first round of the 2023 draft:
Championship status
Teams that think they are one player away from competing for a title can get away with trading up to get a top prospect. The Packers are no longer that team. This is a franchise in transition, and trading down could give the Packers more valuable picks to build out Brian Gutekunst’s roster and potentially open up a new title window down the road. The post-Aaron Rodgers Packers won’t admit they are in a rebuild phase, but this is, at the very least, a time of replacement and reloading.
Roster holes
The Packers’ roster is littered with holes, thanks in large part to all the free-agent defections. Let’s run through it: the Packers need a backup quarterback, stability at running back past 2023, 3-4 wide receivers and tight ends, long-term starting options at at least one offensive tackle position, 2-3 defensive linemen, a long-term investment at edge rusher, potentially two new starters at safety and a new kicker. Brian Gutekunst will go into the draft with 10 picks, and he’ll likely get more in the Aaron Rodgers trade, but his roster has more holes than just one draft can fill. It’s time to re-stock, and more picks equal more chances to fix holes.
Premium position value
It’s easy to see the first-round depth at premium positions in this draft class. The Packers, at No. 15, are likely to have several different options available at edge rusher, offensive tackle, cornerback or defensive line when they come on the clock in the first round. The depth (especially at cornerback) should provide a real opportunity for a contending team to move up and grab a player a premium position at 15, allowing the Packers to move down and grab an extra pick or two.
Top 100 picks need
The Packers might have 10 picks, but seven are on Day 3, and Green Bay currently has only two picks inside the top 50. Good players can be found anywhere in the draft, but the hit rate is always higher earlier in the process. Trading down from 15 could increase the ammo that the Packers have in the top 100 picks in the 2023 draft, helping Brian Gutekunst better address all the holes in his roster. Reloading around Love would become much easier with better draft capital.
Salary cap
The Packers are a top-heavy team in terms of the salary cap, and the 2023 offseason was just the start of building out a better financial future. Teams covet draft picks so much because drafted players are cheap labor on rookie deals. Filling out the 53-man roster with more players on entry level deals would further help the Packers create a cost-effective and healthy roster over the next few years. Of course, there is some cap savings from moving down in the first round, too.
Caveats
Of course, any trade scenario comes with caveats. It takes two to tango. The right trade partner has to come available, and the right compensation package would have to be agreed upon by both sides. All teams, in theory, would prefer to trade down, but most don’t because they like a player at their spot or fail to find the right trade. So, the caveat here is that a trade down only works if the Packers have similarly-graded players on the board and the right trade is available.
