Even after losing convincingly at home to the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers are entering the bye week at 6-3 and would be in the NFC playoffs if the season ended today.
Sure, the Packers are third in the NFC North, and two disappointing home losses inside the division have introduced some doubt over Matt LaFleur’s team as a top contender. But the Packers haven’t come close to playing their best football through nine weeks and are still a couple of self-inflicted mistakes away from being 7-2 or better. Compared to last season, when their record stood at 3-6 after nine games, the Packers are in an incredible position.
Great teams get hot at the right time, and the Packers must now use the bye week to heal up and find ways of heating up during the final two months of the season.
Feeling down to start the bye week? Here are some reasons for optimism entering the off week:
— The Packers are eighth overall in DVOA, fourth in yards per play, 11th in yards per play and sixth in turnover margin through nine weeks. This is a verifiably good football team with a lot of room to grow.
— The Packers offense ranks eighth in DVOA despite two different injuries to Jordan Love and all the inconsistencies with the passing game. This has been an explosive, big play offense that needs to improve in terms of down-to-down, drive-to-drive consistency and finishing in the red zone.
— The Packers defense ranks 13th in DVOA — a major improvement over last year, when Green Bay ranked 27th in the final season under Joe Barry. The improvement has happened despite all the inconsistencies with the pass-rush up front and some question marks at linebacker and cornerback.
— Josh Jacobs needs to get his ankle healthy, but he could be a game-changer down the stretch — much like Aaron Jones to end last season. Jacobs ranks among the NFL’s top running backs in yards after contact and missed tackles forced — and he’s only going to get more productive as the weather starts to turn.
— Jordan Love has thrown 10 interceptions, but he’s been credited with only 10 turnover-worthy plays at Pro Football Focus. Love hasn’t protected the football consistently this season, but he’s been punished harshly in the interception department. For instance, Dak Prescott leads quarterbacks with 16 turnover-worthy plays this season but has only eight interceptions. Josh Allen has 12 turnover-worthy plays but only two interceptions. Love needs to be better, but there’s a good chance Love’s turnover luck will even out.
— The Packers are 27th in special teams DVOA, but a lot of the negative comes from Brayden Narveson’s five misses early on. Brandon McManus has only one miss in three games and Daniel Whelan is enjoying a terrific season. The return game needs to get better, but Keisean Nixon will likely get more kick returns as the weather turns. The Packers haven’t allowed a blocked punt or kick and have generally covered kicks and punts well.
— Over the final eight games, the Packers play only three games against teams in the top 16 of DVOA (49ers, Lions, Vikings) and four games against teams ranked 23rd or lower (Bears twice, Dolphins, Saints).
— The Packers are averaging 5.0 yards per rush and have almost 1,400 rushing yards in nine games. They rank in the top 10 in the NFL in attempts, rushing yards and yards per rush.
— The defense has 19 takeaways, including multiple takeaways in seven of nine games. Takeaways can be sporadic, and the Packers have zero in two of the last three games, but the Hafley defense is vastly improved in terms of taking the ball away.
— The third down defense ranks seventh overall. Combining takeaways with third-down stops is a strong recipe for a winning defense.
— The Packers have dropped a staggering 19 passes, including an NFL-high seven drops from Jayden Reed and six from Dontayvion Wicks. Reed is too good to continue dropping the football at his current rate. It’s unclear if Wicks — who is still consistently getting open — can get the drop issue fixed this year, but it won’t be surprising if the Packers catch the ball more consistently during the second half.
— The Packers offensive line has given up only 69 total pressures, and Jordan Love leads the NFL in sack percentage. This is a terrific pass-blocking offensive line once again.
— The Packers rank 29th in pass-rush win rate. It has to get better, right? Trading away Preston Smith is going to provide more snaps for Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Arron Mosby and Brenton Cox Jr., and the Packers need the young talent to step up down the stretch.
