Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have faced off for an hour of intense and at times testy debate on ITV1. Here are some of the claims made – and whether they stack up.
Would every family’s taxes go up by £2,000 under Labour?
This much-repeated line from Sunak is based on a supposed £38.5bn “black hole”, one based on an official Treasury forecast, done by civil servants. What Sunak did not say – for obvious reasons – is that the calculations were based on assumptions set out by Conservative-appointed political advisers. They are also heavily contested by Labour (and would possibly be contested in private by some of those Treasury officials). Both sides will debate this but it is fair to say that the claim is very unproven and most likely incorrect.
Are NHS England waiting lists going down?
This was said by Sunak – and immediately challenged by Starmer. It depends on how you measure it. Non-emergency waiting lists are falling month on month. In the period from September 2023 to January 2024, some of the most recent figures available, they fell by about 170,000 – albeit a drop of just over 2% of the total.
However, the total figure was more than 350,000 above the equivalent period from a year before, and more than 600,000 higher than when the prime minister entered No 10. So any fall is only claimable in a very specific way.
Have the Conservatives abolished non-dom status?
Once again, yes and no. The budget in March did, surprisingly, include a plan to phase out the ability of people non-domiciled in the UK to not pay tax on overseas earnings. However, it allows people four years in which to do this, and if they place any overseas funds in a trust before April 2025, they would be liable for UK income and capital gains taxes, but exempt from inheritance tax.
Labour say that this, plus other elements of the plan such as a discounted rate of 12% for any income and capital gains brought to the UK before May 2027, could cost many hundreds of billions of pounds.
Will the UK be less energy-secure if it stops new North Sea drilling?
This idea raised by Sunak would be significantly challenged by plenty of energy experts, and on two points. The first is that UK-drilled oil and gas is sold on global markets, and would thus have a negligible impact on prices. There is also a strong argument that investing heavily in sustainable and green energy – as many other countries are doing – would eventually make the UK notably less reliant on imported fossil fuels.
