Real wages — pay adjusted for inflation — are projected to fall in Italy, Spain, France and the UK between the first quarters of 2026 and 2027, while rising in Germany, according to the OECD’s Employment Outlook 2026. In Italy and Spain, they are expected to remain below their early 2026 levels until at least the end of 2027.
“In the future, geopolitical uncertainties and a time-limited increase in energy costs may significantly weaken labour markets while exerting further upward pressure on inflation, which likely will depress wages,” the report said.
