For all the silverware Pep Guardiola has won at Manchester City, the Champions League has eluded him so far - and accusations of over-thinking his tactics are never far away. Given his pursuit of tactical perfection, Guardiola has more often than not proved his doubters wrong with trophy-laden spells in charge of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and now Man City.
But after winning the European Cup three times at Camp Nou - once as a player, and twice as a coach - the Catalan maestro has yet to get his hands of the famous trophy since 2011. In Munich and now Manchester, Guardiola has been outfought and out-thought by sides on tighter budgets and of more limited technical means. Though Chelsea boast a similarly fearsome transfer budget - until recently, at least - last season's defeat to the Blues in the Final will have stung Guardiola after Thomas Tuchel exposed his decision not to play a natural holding midfielder, with Mason Mount carving his side open to set up Kai Havertz for the only goal of a tight contest.
City are one game away from another Final this season, and hold a one-goal advantage over Real Madrid following a thrilling 4-3 semi-final first-leg win over Los Blancos in Manchester. Make no mistake though - Carlo Ancelotti's LaLiga champions will be confident of glory at the Bernabeu, especially with Ballon d'Or contender Karim Benzema leading the line. So, the big question is: Will Guardiola stick or twist with his tactics given what is at stake?
David McDonnell: Stick
As the saying goes – if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Guardiola would do well to keep that maxim at the forefront of his thinking.
City hold a 4-3 advantage after a thrilling first leg, although with Guardiola's side having surrendered a two-goal advantage on three occasions, he will no doubt be ruing the fact his side do not travel to the Spanish capital with a bigger lead. That said, Guardiola did little wrong in the first leg. Were it not for poor decision-making and finishing by his players at home in the first leg, the tie would be all but over now.
Guardiola, so often accused of over-thinking at the business end of the Champions League, made the right selection calls and it was only the fact his hand was forced, with an injury to John Stones, that allowed Real a route back into the game. Already without the injured Kyle Walker and suspended Joao Cancelo, Guardiola was forced to play Stones, who had been struggling with a muscle problem, at right-back.
When he came off early in the second-half, Guardiola's only option to replace him was veteran midfielder Fernandinho, who looked every one of his 37 years when he was humiliated by Vinicius Jr - 16 years his junior - for Real's second goal. But with Cancelo back from suspension, Guardiola can at least deploy him at right-back if, as expected, Walker is not fit, giving City's back-four greater balance and stability, with Nathan Ake likely to play at left-back.
The rest of the side picks itself, with Rodri anchoring the midfield, flanked by Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne, with a likely front three of Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus and Phil Foden, just as in the first-leg. Given his side did little wrong apart from failing to convert the multitude of chances they created, Guardiola should keep faith with the same personnel, trusting in them to get the job done and take City to a second successive Champions League final.
Have Your Say! Should Guardiola stick or twist with his tactics? Join the debate here.
Gideon Brooks: Twist
City will look on the first leg of this semi-final and wonder just how damaging it may prove to be that they conceded three goals to the Spanish champions. Yet context is everything, and the return of not one but possibly two key players to Guardiola’s back line gives hope that a uncharacteristically leaky display will not be repeated in the Bernabeu.
Cancelo’s suspension and Walker’s ankle injury left Guardiola searching for square pegs to fit in round holes with a gamble on a half-fit Stones lasting just 36 minutes, and 36-year-old Fernandinho having to fill in at right back for over an hour.
On the other side Oleksandr Zinchenko slotted in more comfortably for Cancelo at left back and, to be fair, was excellent but he sits comfortably behind the Portugal international in the pecking order. Yet of the two it is the return of Walker which may just be of greater significance given the pace of Vinicius Junior down the left flank.
Ruben Dias was just one game back from a hamstring tear when he played at the back with Aymeric Laporte and it showed in a rare rusty display from the Portugal international. He looked more his old self in the shutout against Leeds at the weekend and can step on again.
It is however the return of pace in Cancelo and hopefully Walker down the flanks at full-back which gives City the biggest hope that they can stem the flow of service to Karim Benzema from Brazilian wingers Vinicius and Rodrygo and book themselves a ticket to Paris.
