India once had two credit policies a year: a slack season policy in April and a busy season policy in October. That practice is gone. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) now reviews rates every two months, so October is one of six checkpoints rather than a seasonal pivot. It still matters. The busy season, with festive demand and rising credit offtake, begins now. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has moved to a similar cadence, with eight scheduled meetings a year, roughly every six weeks.
Credit policy is treated as an event, with markets speculating and waiting for guidance. But much of the mystery has gone. Decisions are increasingly data-driven, and the framework is fixed in advance. India targets consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% with a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. Wholesale inflation is not part of the target, so everyone reads the same CPI print. Central banks now differentiate themselves through guidance, not surprise.
