As Rishi Sunak reaches 100 days as prime minister, how should we judge his opening months as the incumbent in No 10.
What can the prime minister be proud of?
Well, he has at least comfortably exceeded in quantity and quality the 49-day chaotic reign of his predecessor, Liz Truss. If he manages to stay in Downing Street for another 20 days he’ll also overtake George Canning (1827), and if makes it to a general election in the summer of 2024 he’ll be ahead of other footnotes in history such as Bonar Law and Alec Douglas-Home.
Of necessity, some 12 years since the Conservatives first came to power since 2010, and after the traumas of the last couple of years, Sunak has had to define himself negatively and in contradiction to his two immediate predecessors. Thus, he presents himself as a repudiation of the economic policy of Truss, by putting beating inflation ahead of unfunded tax cuts and growth; and a contrast to the freewheeling, boosterish and scandal-ridden ways of Boris Johnson.
His five pledges, not delivered until a keynote speech at the start of this year, were described by him as “five foundations on which to build a better future for our children and grandchildren”. They are, however, rather managerial in tone, unexceptionable, a little vague and modestly pitched with the maximum chance of being fulfilled by January 2024. They are not, therefore, a “vision” of a new society.
For the record, the Sunak pledges are: halving inflation growing the economy; reducing the national debt; cutting NHS waiting lists; and “stopping the boats”. It’s not building a new Jerusalem. He’s maintained the Johnson-Truss policy on Ukraine.
What has been his worst moment?
In gaffe terms, he seems slightly unlucky. He was unlucky to turn up at a meeting during lockdown, walk into a birthday party for Johnson and get a fine, but now he’s done it again. His high-profile launch of the regional “levelling up” projects was sadly overshadowed by a video of him not wearing a seatbelt in a moving car – and receiving a second fixed penalty notice. He was also ridiculed for asking a homeless man if he worked in business. Sunak has had a mixed record at Prime Minister’s Questions, but no outright disasters.
More substantively, the most unpleasant episode must be the messy and badly-handled scandal around the tax affairs of Nadhim Zahawi, where Sunak seemed weak, indecisive and ill-informed, to put it politely, about what was going on in his own government. Sunak himself was said to be “livid” about Zahawi’s run-in with HMRC, but he clung on to him for too long, possibly for political reasons, (essentially too weak to fire him). Bullying allegations against the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, will also tarnish the prime minister’s own reputation.
The very early departure of Gavin Williamson, after he’d been caught sending abusive messages to a colleague, was another low; as was the rapid reappointment of Suella Braverman to the home office, only six days after she’d been dismissed by Truss for leaking and breaking the ministerial code.
A failure to settle the wave of strikes – which have some public support – and the prospect of a long recession mean the Sunak premiership will probably experience more turbulence before lower interest rates and tax cuts offer him some electoral hope next year.
What about integrity, professionalism, and accountability?
It’s certainly something that has become associated with the prime minister. On his first day at work, 25 October 2022, he declared outside No 10: “This government will have integrity, professionalism, and accountability at every level. Trust is earned and I will earn yours.”
The problem is that every time an incident of what is loosely called sleaze emerges, Sunak’s lofty words are hurled back at him, making him look hypocritical, not to say foolish. It’s so air to the way that “back to basics”, much misquoted and misunderstood, came to haunt John Major and his government. Sunak pleads that many of the scandals date back to Boris Johnson’s premiership, and indeed have Johnson at the centre of them, but the public don’t care about that so much. Johnson’s forthcoming interrogation about Partygate and accusations of lying to parliament at the Commons privileges committee await to further embarrass Sunak. Of course, Sunak’s family’s own tax affairs, now regularised, are always going to be part of public perceptions.
Strong and stable government?
Not quite. His party is so addicted to plotting and factionalism that he has little hope of ever stamping his authority on it. Even with a formal majority of more than 70 in the Commons, Sunak can be derailed by any one of the myriad of groups of Conservative MPs devoted to some or other hobby horse – the EU, China, “growth”, the respective devotees of the cult of Johnson and the cult of Truss, as well divisions of interest and outlook between the “red wall” and “blue wall” MPs. Overlaid with different shades of economic and social liberals versus small-C conservatives, it creates a kaleidoscopic challenge for party management.
Thus, even this soon in his premiership, Sunak has been forced into ignominious U-turns on planning targets, onshore wind farms and the Online Safety Bill. More encouragingly, he has cancelled fracking and the privatisation of Channel 4, two policies that carried disproportionate political risk. But bold, radical change in any direction, even were it on his agenda is something that some in his party will always be ready to veto. That is also why he has been forced to appoint, and then keep, the likes of Suella Braverman to his government. Hence Labour’s repeated charge of “weakness”, which they clearly think will gain traction.
What do the public think?
There was no spectacular Sunak “bounce” when he took over; and he’s recently been slipping, even before the latest revelations and the denouement of the Zahawi tax scandal. His personal ratings seem to have been dragged down by the near-terminal unpopularity of his own party, despite his best and no doubt sincere efforts. Keir Starmer has now overtaken him as the public’s choice as “most capable as prime minister”, albeit, without much enthusiasm. Indeed Sunak has seen the steepest slump in popularity at this point in a premiership of any prime minister in four decades – with the sole exception of Truss.
He cannot be blamed for all that has gone wrong, but it’s fair to point out that he was chancellor for three years, in the government since 2018, and campaigned for Brexit, and thus has an “ownership stake” in that failing project. Sunak did not, in other words, parachute in from heaven to save us, but emerged from the swampy waters of the contemporary Conservative Party. He has seen shaped by his times, and 100 days isn’t long enough for him to have succeeded in making the political weather.
Can Sunak survive as PM?
He is resented in some quarters of his party because of the way he came to power. Johnson, and his supporters, feel that Sunak’s resignation from Johnson’s cabinet was an act of treachery by a “snake”. Sunak’s enemies also resent the fact that he profited from the fall of Truss, and that he was not voted in by the party membership. Indeed, in the first leadership contest of 2022, Truss beat Sunak comfortably in the membership ballot. The March Budget, which will have little to please the right, and the May local elections, likely to be appalling for the Tories, will be flash points, and talk of a Johnson comeback will reach a crescendo.
Unless something strange happens, the sheer horror at having to change leader again will probably outweigh any possible benefits of re-installing Johnson or some other figure. It would simply make the Tories look hopelessly divided and incompetent, and send their ratings even lower. Sunak is all they've got, and they are all Sunak has got.
