The flurry of extreme storms which have brought destruction to the UK might be repeated as climate change wreaks havoc on our weather.
Newcastle University experts say we must prepare for more extreme weather - and things could get worse if we don't address global heating.
Writing for The Conversation, Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, and climate research associate Colin Manning addressed the question of why recent storms Arwen and Eunice were so severe, and whether such events might become more common.
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They said the current spate of dangerous wind storms, which have sparked two 'red' warnings in as many months and left parts of the North East without power for days, is due to "a particularly strong polar vortex creating low pressure in the Arctic, and a faster jet stream – a core of very strong wind high in the atmosphere that can extend across the Atlantic", which combined to bring wet and stormy weather to our shores.
A strong jet stream makes storms more powerful and can send them our way, though the experts said that while some effects of climate change are likely to strengthen the jet stream, causing more UK wind storms, other effects might weaken it.
Scientists haven't yet reached a consensus about whether climate change will cause windier storms in the UK - though it is broadly agreed that warmer temperatures will lead to heavier rain here.
But there's one aspect of the recent tempests which the Newcastle team say made them especially dangerous and which could also become more common as a result of climate change.
Both Arwen and Eunice are thought to have contained a “ sting jet ”: a small, narrow airstream that can form inside a storm and produce intense winds over an area smaller than 100km.
Rare but potentially deadly, these might become more frequent in years to come, the Newcastle scientists said.
They said: "Sting jets occur in a certain type of extratropical cyclone – a rotating wind system that forms outside of the tropics. These airstreams form around 5km above the Earth’s surface then descend on the southwest side of a cyclone, close to its centre, accelerating as they do and bringing fast-moving air from high in the atmosphere with them. When they form, they can produce much higher wind speeds on the ground than might otherwise be forecast by studying pressure gradients in the storm’s core alone.
"Meteorologists are still working to understand sting jets, but they are likely to have a significant influence on the UK’s weather in a warming climate...
"In 1987, the models used for weather forecasts were incapable of representing sting jets, but improvements mean that forecasters predicted Storm Eunice before it had even begun to form in the Atlantic.
"Over the past decade, our team at Newcastle University has worked closely with colleagues at the UK Met Office to develop new high-resolution climate models that can simulate sting jets, as well as hail and lightning, to illuminate how extreme weather events might change in a warming climate."
They added: "Our high-resolution models predict more intense wind storms over the UK as climate change accelerates, with much of this increase coming from storms that develop sting jets.
"Projections from global climate models are uncertain and suggest only small increases in the number of extreme cyclones. But these models fail to represent sting jets and poorly simulate the processes that cause storms to build. As a result, these models probably underestimate future changes in storm intensity.
"We think that using high-resolution climate models, which can represent important processes like sting jets, alongside information from global models on how large-scale conditions might change, could give a more accurate picture. But the UK isn’t doing enough to prepare for the increasingly severe extreme weather already predicted."
Amid such dire predictions, politicians in parts of Northumberland which were especially badly hit by Storm Arwen have called on the Government to plan ahead for more such disasters.
Northumberland Labour group leader Scott Dickinson said: “We saw a woefully inadequate response with Storm Arwen, with people left without power for well over a week and national emergency having to be called before any serious action was taken.
“And with the latest storms (Dudley and Eunice) which affected most parts of the country, it's clear that the Government is just not planning thoroughly enough for these increasingly common events.
“Set this against a backdrop of Government funding for flood response services being slashed since the Tories took power...
“We want to see much more in the way of planning and swift action when people and communities are affected.
“Storms and flooding are going to become things we are going to have to learn to live with. If that's going to be the reality then Government needs to put its money where its mouth is to protect people and property, prevent damage where possible and take swift action to protect individual and communities.”
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