A footnote to the excellent article by Timothy Garton Ash (What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025, 21 December). The so-called rare earths are essential raw materials for advanced electronics industries. China – with the world’s largest economically exploitable reserves – has a major strategic advantage in access to rare earths, underlined by the tight export controls that it has recently imposed. In Europe, it is eastern Ukraine that has the best reserves. To gain and maintain control of Ukraine’s reserves would be a major boost for Russia.
A defeat here for Ukraine, enabled by the failure of the west to provide the long-term support that it has promised, would signal to China that it should not be too concerned about western resolve in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan is a dominant supplier of the advanced electronics, incorporating rare earths, that will continue to be a major determinant of economic success.
