The NFL’s coaching carousel began spinning early in the 2022 regular season. That’s when the Carolina Panthers decided they’d seen enough from Matt Rhule and kicked him to the curb after 38 underwhelming games.
Frank Reich and Nathaniel Hackett joined him soon after on the ignominious list of in-season firings. Once Week 18 came to an official close, the Houston Texans couldn’t even wait until Black Monday to fire Lovie Smith. That left Kliff Kingsbury, architect behind a rich tradition of Arizona Cardinal collapses, as the only man to lose his job on the traditional carving grounds for foundering head coaches.
That leaves the blossoming 2023 offseason with five coaching jobs not yet filled by full-time coaches. Which provides the best landing spot for a stacked cast of rising young assistants and valuable retreads? Well, the thing is that each needy team is bad in its own way — but some provide an easier path to success than the rest.
5
Arizona Cardinals
Years of ineffective roster building between former general manager Steve Keim and former head coach Kliff Kingsbury have left Arizona with an impotent lineup. Kyler Murray backslid before tearing his ACL in Week 12, leaving fans to wonder if he’ll ever reach the MVP-adjacent heights of the first half of his 2021 season. Even worse, an embattled defense allowed more points than all but one other team in the NFL.
Young talent is hard to come by for the Cardinals, whose primary offensive contributions came from players 25 or older and whose defense has a few bright stars (Budda Baker, Marco Wilson, maybe Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins if the next coach can utilize them properly) that don’t quite make a constellation. Fortunately, Arizona has a top three draft pick and no use for a quarterback, so the team could trade back and pick up a smattering of selections to help upgrade the roster. It also has a modest amount of salary cap space to bring in the veteran talent capable of making this team look less like Kingsbury’s failure.
The 2023 season will likely be the backdrop to a roster purge. The next man up on the sideline will have to manage that as well as a young mobile quarterback returning from a season where his efficiency crashed even before a devastating knee injury. Factor in the competition in the NFC West and you’ve got a daunting rebuild, at least in the short term.
4
Indianapolis Colts
The good news: a team that’s been a franchise quarterback away from truly contending in the AFC is finally in position to draft one after falling to the fourth overall pick in the completely bonkers and thankfully brief Jeff Saturday era. The bad news: the once-promising offensive line and defense that held this team together through a string of disposable veteran QBs fell apart in 2022 and may not be easily fixed.
The wheels fell off for the Colts, which was actually a good thing considering their spot in NFL limbo since Andrew Luck’s retirement. The team’s top 10 scoring offense fell to 30th. Its top 10 scoring defense fell to 28th. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman each had forgettable seasons after promising 2021 campaigns. Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles made multiple starts behind center.
This led Indianapolis to its highest draft position since 2018 — a year in which the team traded back, collected a haul for the third overall pick and surrounded Andrew Luck with young talent in exchange for the right to draft Sam Darnold. The Colts may have to do the same thing to lock down a top-two quarterback this spring, as the needy Texans select second and both the Bears (first overall) and Cardinals (third) would benefit from a trade back in order to fix the myriad other holes in their rosters.
Whomever takes over will be tasked with coaching up the team’s most hyped quarterback since Luck. Fortunately, the AFC South remains winnable despite the Jacksonville Jaguars’ recent heroics. Indy has a reasonable amount of cap space to add veterans to fit into its rebuild. Frank Reich was able to make this team better than most despite regrettable returns at quarterback in four-plus seasons. That’s where the bar will be set for his replacement.
3
Houston Texans
Anyone taking the Texans job will have to ask: am I being set up to be Houston’s fall guy in a rebuilding year?
That’s exactly what happened to David Culley and Lovie Smith, two unexpected head coach hires who each lasted exactly one season before being axed. Those two were brought in to lose games and secure a high draft spot. While each was successful, this Texans team isn’t in an appreciably better place talent-wise than it was in 2021.
Culley and Smith were brought in to run out the lingering effects of Bill O’Brien’s terrible salary cap management. Whomever takes the reins gets a team without a quarterback (though the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft should fix that), a receiving corps where the top two wideouts are each about to turn 30 (Chris Moore is a free agent, while Brandin Cooks may not want to be there), and the league’s 30th ranked pass blocking (and, after making O’Brien look foolish with his last contract, Laremy Tunsil is once again asking for record-setting money).
On the plus side, Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley are the young nucleus for a valuable secondary. Dameon Pierce’s 2.3 yards per carry after contact was a top-five mark among running backs. Houston has spending room and 11 picks in the upcoming draft, including five in the first 75 selections. There’s room to build this team in your own vision if you’re a rising coaching candidate.
And you get to play in the perpetually disheveled AFC South, which is a plus.
2
Denver Broncos
There’s one question each candidate the Broncos interview will have to answer. How are you going to fix Russell Wilson?
Wilson was a disaster in 2022. His debut season as a Bronco saw him post career worsts in multiple categories. He threw 16 touchdown passes and was sacked a league-high 55 times despite playing only 15 games. In terms of advanced stats, his closest comparisons among starters were Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan — two other aging quarterbacks with Super Bowl experience who cratered badly last fall.
Fortunately, there’s a solid supporting cast around him. Young playmakers Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams and Courtland Sutton (OK, young-ish) return for 2023. So does the bulk of a defense that allowed only 17 points per game — second-lowest in the NFL — through the first 13 weeks of the season before finally abandoning hope in an exhausting, pointless season. A head coach capable of guiding this offense to 21 points per game is likely one capable of leading Denver to a winning season and ending a seven-year playoff drought.
The Broncos are now owned by Wal-Mart’s Walton family, which suggests they’ll have few concerns about splashing around money to hire a big name after 2022’s abject failure. Wilson is only 34 years old. He should not be irreparably broken, even if he looked that way throughout the regular season. Getting him back to just 90 percent of his peak should be enough to be successful in Denver — but that might be a lost cause.
1
Carolina Panthers
Steve Wilks went 6-6 in his 12-game audition as interim head coach, earning more wins than anyone on the Carolina sideline since 2018. He was able to coax (mostly) competent play from Sam Darnold at quarterback and has the full-throated support of his players. There’s a reasonable chance he gets the full-time job and that it’s the right decision for the Panthers in 2023.
Shaq Thompson says he and a couple other Panthers’ players need to talk to David Tepper to voice their support for Steve Wilks.
“You guys keep asking the question. We want Wilks.” pic.twitter.com/0BFoaWC0H6— Joe Person (@josephperson) January 8, 2023
If he doesn’t, there’s a lot to lure a top coaching candidate to Charlotte. The Carolina defense is young and capable of big performances — it held eight opponents to 325 total yards or fewer and six to 15 points or fewer despite an offense that possessed the ball less than anyone else in the NFL. The run game thrived in spurts, even after trading away Christian McCaffrey. The team has six picks in the first four rounds of this year’s draft, which should help counteract a stuffed cap sheet that offers little room to add free agents.
That last piece should give candidates pause. Matt Rhule failed for a variety of reasons, but the most blatant was the team’s lack of a viable quarterback. Carolina could move up and select a passer in this year’s draft, but it would be coming up from the ninth overall pick and would have to contend with the Texans and Colts, each of whom need QBs and have higher draft slots. The team could clear space with some cuts/restructures and take a run at an available veteran, but would likely be competing with the Jets, Saints, Commanders and others.
Fortunately, team owner David Tepper has been willing to give his coaches a reasonable amount of time to turn things around. The Panthers could be an average quarterback away from winning the NFC South. If they can find him, this becomes a cushy spot for a rising head coach.
