For starters, the NFC South should be much better than last year, and the division winner likely won’t be under .500 for the second consecutive season.
But it might still be the worst division in the conference—don’t expect multiple teams to clinch a playoff spot. You should, however, expect an intriguing three-team race for the NFC South crown with the Saints’ signing Derek Carr, the Panthers’ drafting Bryce Young and the Falcons’ selecting Bijan Robinson.
The Buccaneers, who won the division last season with an 8–9 record, will likely have a drop-off with the retirement of Tom Brady, but they shouldn’t be counted out in a wide-open division.
A good way of predicting the 2023 division champion is by examining the rosters after free agency and the draft. So, here’s how we see the NFC South rosters, from worst to best:
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers’ offseason moves best summarize this subpar division. They made enough moves to possibly win the division, but with concerns at three critical areas—quarterback, offensive line and edge rusher—they can easily be in the race for college quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye by Halloweeen.
Tampa Bay passed on a full rebuild this year, retaining key in-house free agents Lavonte David and Jamel Dean to field a talented defense this season, while also repairing the salary cap to possibly chase top outside free agents next season.
First-round rookie Calijah Kancey is an undersized defensive tackle at 6'1" and 281 pounds, but his athleticism—and the luxury of playing next to stout nose tackle Vita Vea—might make him a productive interior pass rusher. The Buccaneers are thin at edge rusher with unproven players behind Shaquil Barrett. But they might have the best secondary in the division with Dean, cornerback Carlton Davis and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (although the Saints might disagree).
The biggest concern on this roster is at quarterback with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask competing for the starting job. Mayfield is probably the front-runner, but the Buccaneers spent a 2021 second-round pick on Trask, and they might want to see what they have in him before entering the Williams and Maye sweepstakes. Tampa Bay does have the best trio of wideouts in the division with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage, but that might not matter if the offensive line and running game struggle for the second consecutive season.
3. Atlanta Falcons
This is where it gets tough to rank the rosters. It’s a three-team race in the NFC South, but the Falcons are a notch below in talent, mainly because starting quarterback Desmond Ridder is unproven and the team didn't do enough to address the lack of pass rushers after generating only 21 sacks last season.
But there’s plenty to like on the Atlanta roster, especially the offensive trio of Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. No other team in the division has that caliber of skill players—Robinson might already be the best running back in the division, and he hasn’t played a game. But the Falcons lack depth at wideout; London doesn’t have a running mate, such as Evans or Godwin.
It will be up to Ridder to feed London and help Pitts get more involved in the passing game. The QB will have the benefit of playing behind a rugged offensive line, perhaps the best in the division. The Falcons are also attempting to make it easier for their inexperienced quarterback by providing him a running back tandem of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but this run-heavy approach might backfire if the defense allows a few early touchdowns. Ridder will need to make plays in the passing game.
The defense is in better shape with the signing of safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackle David Onyemata. (It was probably worth the gamble to trade for cornerback Jeff Okudah, the 2020 No. 3 pick.) But adding veteran Calais Campbell, 36, to play with Grady Jarrett, 30, likely won’t improve Atlanta’s pass-rushing problems.
2. New Orleans Saints
Middle-tier veteran quarterbacks in search of a fresh start haven’t been a winning recipe for success lately in the NFL—just ask the Colts and Commanders. But it’s hard to count out this older, more experienced roster after the arrival of Carr, who had many highs and lows throughout his nine seasons with the Raiders.
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Here’s the list of the Saints’ familiar core group: Running back Alvin Kamara, 27; wide receiver Michael Thomas, 30; right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, 29; defensive end Cameron Jordan, 33; linebacker Demario Davis, 34; and cornerback Marshon Lattimore, 26. It’s an impressive group with plenty of postseason experience, but age and injury history is why this roster ranks second in the division.
Carr and the Saints will need Thomas to be available after playing only 10 games the past three seasons because of injuries. Kamara will have help in the backfield with Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller.
With Carr under center, the Saints will likely be in the race for the division until the end, but it’s tough imagining this group making one more deep postseason run. And there are a few younger cornerstone pieces, such as wide receiver Chris Olave, a dynamic downfield threat, and left tackle Trevor Penning, a rugged run blocker.
The defense has a quality safety tandem with Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye, but the unit is thin on the interior of the defensive line. Jordan will need someone else to step up as a quality pass rusher; first-round rookie defensive tackle Bryan Bresee might provide immediate help on the defensive front.
1. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers aren’t far ahead of the Falcons and Saints, but they get the top spot because they have fewer holes on a roster made up of quality veterans, Pro Bowlers and promising young players.
After the Panthers’ No. 1 selection of Young, the offensive depth chart looks to be in good shape—there isn’t a glaring position hole. It’s not a stacked group, and it doesn’t feature a scary trio like the one in Atlanta, but it’s one that will help Young establish a rhythm early in his rookie season.
Carolina returned the entire starting offensive line, a unit that played well last season. The decision to re-sign center Bradley Bozeman will be vital in the development of Young. The Panthers also added the trio of running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver Adam Thielen and tight end Hayden Hurst. Young will have a variety of weapons with speedy wideout DJ Chark and intriguing rookie wide receiver Jonathan Mingo, the second-round pick with a sizable catch radius. (At the combine, his arm length measured at 32 1/8".)
As for the defense, the Panthers have the best edge rusher in the division in Brian Burns, plus defensive tackle Derrick Brown and cornerback Jaycee Horn, who could soon join Burns as Pro Bowlers on the roster. Carolina also added defensive veterans in free agency with defensive tackle Shy Tuttle and safety Vonn Bell. The unit does, however, have a few holes to address, specifically at inside linebacker and edge rusher—an area it might need third-round defensive end DJ Johnson to make an immediate impact.
Again, it’s not a star-studded roster, but Young has a strong supporting cast to deliver a memorable rookie season with, and the defense is ascending with Burns leading the charge. Expect the Panthers to win a wide-open NFC South.
