The AFC East might be the NFL’s most competitive division in 2023.
After watching the Bills run away with the crown for three straight years, the Jets and Dolphins have made significant upgrades over the past two offseasons. This winter Miami traded for corner Jalen Ramsey to bolster an already tough secondary, while the Jets headlined with the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are trying to avoid missing the playoffs for the third time in four years after qualifying for 10 consecutive seasons under coach Bill Belichick. Much of the pressure will be on third-year quarterback Mac Jones, who struggled to find consistency under former offensive coordinator Matt Patricia in 2022.
Still, it’s hard to argue for New England as having anything but the AFC East’s worst roster, which is where we start our countdown.
4. New England Patriots
The Patriots are a tale of two units. On defense, this should be one of the league’s tougher groups. Edge rushers Matthew Judon and Josh Uche combined for 27 sacks last year, propelling New England to being ranked eighth in total defense.
The secondary is also a quality group, but youth will be key. Corners Jack Jones and Marcus Jones are entering their second years, while first-round pick Christian Gonzalez is projected to start immediately. The safeties are now led by fourth-year man Kyle Dugger, who will take on an expanded role following the retirement of Devin McCourty.
Offensively, there are far more questions. Jones struggled mightily in his second campaign, at times barely keeping his job over rookie Bailey Zappe. The Patriots didn't do much to help his cause in the offseason, adding receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Mike Gesicki, but losing wideout Jakobi Meyers and tight end Jonnu Smith as well.
If New England is going to consistently move the ball and improve on its output of 21.4 points per game from last season, it’ll likely be Jones raising his game behind a line that’s good on the interior but shaky on the edges.
3. New York Jets
Jets fans won’t appreciate checking in third, but the AFC East is loaded—someone had to slide. New York has its best roster in well over a decade, led by new quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, is Gang Green getting the Rodgers who won consecutive MVPs in 2020 and ’21 or the Rodgers who failed to throw for 300 yards in any game last season?
Around Rodgers, the offensive talents abound. The receivers are deep, led by second-year wideout Garrett Wilson and supplemented by veterans Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Mecole Hardman. The offensive line is the group's only real question, with Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, Max Mitchell and Carter Warren all vying to start at tackle.
Defensively, this is a strong unit led by coach Robert Saleh. The secondary is the focal point with All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner and veteran D.J. Reed manning the perimeter. The front seven is also a significant strength, with rookie edge rusher Will McDonald IV, Pro Bowl tackle Quinnen Williams, outside linebacker Carl Lawson and defensive end John Franklin-Myers all worthy of attention.
Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
If the Jets can stay healthy and Rodgers performs near his MVP-level days, New York is a contender.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are entering the second phase of their contention window with quarterback Josh Allen.
For the first five years of Allen’s career, he was on a rookie deal and Buffalo was able to add pieces through trades and free agency. That’s no longer the case, save for a rare exception. Instead, Buffalo largely had to watch as linebacker Tremaine Edmunds left for a big deal in Chicago, while the team made mostly small additions in March and April.
Ultimately, the defense remains one of the league’s best, although it’ll be under the command of coach Sean McDermott instead of Leslie Frazier, who is taking a year away from football. The secondary remains elite with corner Tre’Davious White, plus safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. However, there’s a question of age on defense with both Poyer and Hyde over the 30-year threshold. Up front, edge rusher Von Miller, 34, is coming off a torn ACL suffered on Thanksgiving in Detroit, and his timetable to return remains murky.
Unquestionably, Buffalo's offense will score plenty with Allen at the controls. Surrounded by receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, along with a two-tight end set of rookie Dalton Kincaid and veteran Dawson Knox, the Bills will overwhelm most teams. For Buffalo, it’s about harnessing its best football come January.
1. Miami Dolphins
Give general manager Chris Grier his flowers. No front office executive has done more over the past three years, taking the Dolphins from an afterthought to having one of the league’s deepest rosters.
The looming question, of course, is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health. When upright, Tagovailoa was one of the league’s most productive signal-callers, working beautifully with receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The offensive personnel is largely the same, save for the loss of second-string tight end Gesicki. It's a unit that will win with speed both in the backfield and on the perimeter, highlighted by Hill’s All-Pro talents.
Last season the defense was a sore spot even after the midseason acquisition of edge rusher Bradley Chubb. Enter Vic Fangio, who over the last decade has fielded elite units with the 49ers, Bears and Broncos—influencing many teams around the league to run his style of play, including last year’s NFC-champion Eagles. Fangio also inherits Ramsey, who the Dolphins traded tight end Hunter Long and a third-round pick for.
Few teams can match the star power and coaching acumen assembled in Miami. If Tagovailoa stays healthy, the Dolphins have the goods to challenge for their first Super Bowl victory since 1973.
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