Compared to 2022, 2023 was an oasis of job security for NFL head coaches. More than a quarter of the league’s sideline generals were replaced last offseason, leading to promising hires that returned immediate dividends (Doug Pederson, Brian Daboll), others on which the jury is still out (Kevin O’Connell, Matt Eberflus) and a couple of one-year flameouts (Nathaniel Hackett, Lovie Smith).
Only five teams fired their head coaches after the start of last fall’s regular season, starting with Matt Rhule’s deserved departure in Carolina. That set the stage for a hiring process filled with the typical mix of retread veterans and rising coordinators as each franchise looks for the guy who can take their team to the next level.
With the Arizona Cardinals settling on Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to replace Kliff Kingsbury, we now know what 2023’s class of new head coaches officially looks like. With some very minimal data about their pasts and the rosters they’ve inherited, which hire looks best? Well, looks like it’s time to get into some way-too-early, almost-certainly-wrong rankings.
5
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon
Following Bruce Arians’ retirement in 2017, the Cardinals opted for a defensive head coach: Steve Wilks. That failed to pan out and one year later they plucked an offensive innovator from the college ranks in Kliff Kingsbury. This also proved to be a mistake, so now Arizona’s back on board with a D-first play caller.
Gannon is only 40 years old but has held down a multitude of NFL roles, from defensive backs coach to scout. His work as Eagles’ defensive coordinator led him to the desert, and for good reason. After modest improvement in 2021, his unit was one of the most intimidating in the league en route to a 14-3 breakthrough. Philadelphia led the league in sacks, recording 15 more than the second-place Kansas City Chiefs. It also ranked first in pass defense DVOA — a wildly useful trait in a league replete with top flight quarterbacks.
But Gannon also thrived with a loaded roster filled with Pro Bowl candidates and reliable stars. The Cardinals don’t have that. They ranked 31st in scoring defense and 24th in overall DVOA. Since-retired J.J. Watt was responsible for more than a third of the team’s total sacks (12.5 of 36). Any growth on that side of the ball will be measured in steps, not leaps.
Gannon will also have to rehabilitate Kyler Murray back from not only a torn ACL but a significant 2022 backslide. The talent disparity between the Eagles and Cardinals is stark. Taking the reins in Arizona will quickly tell us whether Gannon was able to make a loaded Philadelphia roster more than the sum of its parts or if he was merely along for the ride.
4
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen
I don’t want to give the Colts credit simply for not making a disastrous choice and keeping Jeff Saturday, 1-7 in his stint on the sideline, as permanent head coach. But after running screaming from a common sense move for the bulk of four months, Indianapolis finally saw the light and hired a coach capable of lifting a young quarterback to new heights.
Steichen was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator in 2020 when Justin Herbert burst onto the scene as a rookie and cemented his place as a game-changing starting quarterback. He’s guided Jalen Hurts from “kinda/sorta our guy” with the Eagles and into an elite passer. Now he gets a Colts team set to select a young rookie quarterback early in this year’s draft — possibly Bryce Young, if you take Jim Irsay’s candid responses at face value.
Colts owner Jim Irsay says Indy hired Shane Steichen knowing it has "to find a young quarterback to develop," praises draft prospect Bryce Young: "The Alabama guy doesn't look bad, I'll tell ya"https://t.co/914Ij1GdD4 pic.twitter.com/2raoumXu6B
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 14, 2023
Like Gannon, however, Steichen was propped up by one of the league’s deepest and most talented rosters. Hurts thrived behind a stellar offensive line and a deep well of skill players who opened new pages in his playbook. The Colts have a modest chunk of salary cap space and will have some draft assets — though maybe not as many as expected if they have to trade into the top pick to secure their franchise QB — but there aren’t many options available who can create a downfield corps to rival “A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.”
There may be growing pains ahead for both Steichen and his new quarterback. But that’s fine, especially as Irsay’s reported willingness to consider Saturday as a viable full-time coach suggests there’s a long leash in Indianapolis. The former Eagles offensive coordinator has a track record of making young quarterbacks better. After wandering through a desert of mediocrity thanks to a chain of bad veteran QBs, that’s exactly what the Colts need.
3
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans
Ryans is another defensive coordinator who’ll take over a team in serious need of offensive help. But Houston is bad everywhere, leaving the franchise in position to take a swing at the head coaching candidate with the highest ceiling, regardless of background.
That was Ryans, a former Texans linebacker who’d quickly risen up the coaching ranks and spent the past two seasons developing the San Francisco 49ers into the NFL’s top defense. Under his stewardship the Niners have risen from “good” to “great” and provided the backdrop needed to win games despite mediocre returns at quarterback. That’s something to which Houston has become accustomed in the years preceding, then following, Deshaun Watson.
Ryans planned around a talented roster in Santa Clara, but was also instrumental in developing talent. Mid-round draft picks Tanaloa Hufanga and Fred Warner each developed into All-Pros under Ryans’ watch. Others like Deommodore Lenoir and Dre Greenlaw have gone from Day 3 selections to solid starters.
That’s exactly what the Texans are looking for. The seeds of a superstar defense are there in players like Jalen Pitre, Derek Stingley Jr. and Christian Harris. They’ll need plenty of nurturing to escape the rotten soil of Houston’s organization.
That makes Ryans a solid choice, even if he’s got his work cut out for him on both sides of the ball. With a top two draft pick and more salary cap space than all but three other NFL teams, the stage for the Texans’ rebuild has finally been set. Now the franchise has to hope its first serious coaching hire since Bill O’Brien pans out.
2
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton
Five years ago, the then-Oakland Raiders spent big to bring a former Super Bowl-winning head coach out of his television role and back to coaching. Jon Gruden went 22-31 in three-plus seasons back in the league before resigning due to a scandal related to insensitive language sent in e-mails. This included a 4-2 record against some very bad Denver teams.
This didn’t scare off the Broncos, in large part because Payton isn’t Gruden. He hasn’t been passed by as a head coach after only a year spent on pregame shows. His past with Drew Brees suggests he can win with a revived Russell Wilson or win in spite of a declining Russell Wilson.
Bolstered by a swarming defense and viable run game, Payton pushed New Orleans to a 34-15 record in his final three seasons despite several injuries to Brees and a final 9-8 campaign in which his starting quarterbacks were Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill and Ian Book. Brees, when healthy, was a shell of his former self, ranking among the bottom two in average pass depth each of those seasons (topping out at 6.4 yards downfield in 2019) but still winning a ton of games under Payton.
A 34-year-old Wilson isn’t a 40-year-old Brees, even after what was by far the worst season of his career. Even getting him back to 90 percent of his 2021 form would provide a significant upgrade. He wouldn’t necessarily have to do much heavy lifting; Denver had a top 10 defense in terms of overall DVOA and would have gone 11-6 had its offense simply scored at least 18 points in regulation every week.
That unit may backslide a bit after coordinator Ejiro Evero’s departure, but it may also be bolstered by the competent offense that never really arrived in 2022. Denver couldn’t fire Russell Wilson, so it fired Hackett instead. Then it spent huge to bring Payton to town. The ultimatum here is simple; if Russ can’t perform under the guy who won games with broken-ribs, noodle-armed Drew Brees, then Wilson might in fact be cooked.
1
Carolina Panthers: Frank Reich
The Panthers made the first full-time hire of the 2023 coaching cycle and, indeed, the most promising one. Reich may not have the name recognition of Payton and is coming off a firing, but his dismissal from the Colts was for the crime of being too competent for a franchise in need of bottoming out. While he may not have landed in a better situation with a quarterback-less Carolina team, the Panthers spot in the toothless NFC South provides the opportunity for an immediate return to the postseason.
Reich has a proven background of building young quarterbacks and getting more from underwhelming veterans — he helped groom Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate (ah, the heady days of 2017) and made Nick Foles the most valuable player of an honest-to-god Super Bowl. He can also win games around disappointing passing performances, most notably going 40-33-1 in a four-plus season span in which his best quarterback was a 39-year-old Philip Rivers.
This is going to be immensely valuable for a team whose currently rostered quarterbacks are Matt Corral and Jacob Eason. The Panthers also have the ninth overall pick in this year’s draft and negative salary cap space to add one of the many available veteran starters this spring. There is no immediate QB savior on the way.
Reich’s presence suggests he can prop up whomever takes the reins. Like in Indianapolis he’ll have a star-studded defense on which to fall back and an offense capable of leaning on its run game in long stretches (the 2022 Panthers ran for 169 yards or more in seven of their last 11 games).
His presence won’t make Carolina an immediate Super Bowl contender. But it should make the Panthers an immediate playoff team with room to grow. That makes this hire the best-looking, surest-thing deal in a landscape where nothing is certain.
