We are entering a new era of the NBA with Victor Wembanyama as one of several young stars vying to become the face of the league.
Now that the NBA’s 2023-24 season is less than a month away from tipping off, as we did last year, we have decided to re-rank the 23 best players who are under 23 years old.
But why 23? Well, it is not just because that was the number worn by Michael Jordan. Typically, NBA publications rank 25 players under 25 years old. You can read versions of that here, here, and here. I wanted to try out a similar thought experiment but with a new twist.
By the time NBA players are 25 years old, many have already graduated to their second contract and are in vastly different chapters of their careers than the league’s young players. It is harder to compare players like Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum, who will each earn more than $30 million next season, to players on rookie scale contracts.
The following rankings, meanwhile, are based predominantly on how we see NBA projections for next season. It is not as predictive of their future success or their potential in the league.
NOTE: For this exercise, all players included must be born after Oct. 24, 2000.
23
Josh Green
TEAM: Mavericks
AGE: 22.95
It’s not entirely clear what the Mavericks will do with their starting lineup next season. But after a disappointing finish last season, they should take a long look at Josh Green.
Green shot 72 percent at the rim (85th percentile) and 45 percent (99th percentile) on non-corner 3-pointers, per Cleaning the Glass. The Mavericks also forced turnovers 2.8 percentage points more often when Green was on the floor relative to when he was not.
He is a slasher who can handle the ball in transition and can match up well on the defensive end of the floor. Green is a player worth monitoring as the year progresses.
22
Tari Eason
TEAM: Rockets
AGE: 22.47
Houston’s Tari Eason was one of the most durable players in the league as a rookie, which helped him earn NBA All-Rookie Second-Team during his first professional season. When we spoke to TNT’s Ernie Johnson, he mentioned Eason caught his eye.
Eason, who once grabbed five rebounds in five seconds during this absurd sequence, has legitimate value as a high-impact defender. His defensive estimated plus-minus (dEPM) ranked fourth-best among all players under 23 years old last season.
Houston allowed 4.7 points per 100 possessions fewer when Eason was on the court relative to when he was not last season, via Cleaning the Glass, which ranked second-best among players (minimum: 1,000 minutes) under 23 years old as well.
21
Jeremy Sochan
TEAM: Spurs
AGE: 20.44
During our most recent conversation with Jeremy Sochan, he said that the “potential on both sides is endless” for the Spurs.
He is a tenacious defender who already has carved out an identity on that end of the floor. Sochan was the youngest player (minimum: 1,000 minutes) to rank in the 90th percentile or better in both defensive matchup versatility and defensive matchup difficulty last season, per BBall-Index.
Sochan also told For The Win he expects to play with the ball in his hands a bit more as an occasional playmaker and he wants to improve his overall durability so he can play a longer season in 2023-24.
20
Jalen Duren
TEAM: Pistons
AGE: 19.95
Even though he was one of the youngest players in the NBA last season, Detroit’s Jalen Duren has already shown some encouraging signs as a pro and earned All-Rookie Second-Team.
Duren, who is considered the favorite to start at center for the Pistons, led all rookies in both rebounds and dunks last season. He had the second-most dunks (153) of any player on this list last season, per Synergy, and is already one of the league’s premiere offensive rebounders.
The big man could take another step forward under new head coach Monty Williams while getting a chance to run with elite playmakers like Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson.
19
Deni Avdija
TEAM: Wizards
AGE: 22.82
Washington’s Deni Avdija doesn’t have any counting stats that will jump off the page and grab your attention. But he does a little bit of everything and has a case as one of the better young wing defenders in the NBA.
In fact, per BBall-Index, Avdija is one of just two players currently under 23 years old to rank in the 95th percentile or better in both ball screen navigation and perimeter isolation defense last year.
Avdija has struggled with his consistency on the offensive end of the floor, especially as a shooter, but should have more freedom as a more established player in Washington’s rotation next year.
18
Jabari Smith Jr.
TEAM: Rockets
AGE: 20.46
Houston’s Jabari Smith Jr. had an up-and-down first professional season, eventually earning NBA All-Rookie Second-Team honors.
Despite shooting poorly from beyond the arc, the 6-foot-10 forward has enjoyed some fantastic moments on both sides of the ball. He put the clamps on Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, for example, with surprising success. Smith also had the second-most catch-and-shoot 3-point shots of any rookie, per NBA.com.
His biggest breakout, however, came during the NBA 2K24 Summer League. He played just two games but scored 30 during both of his appearances for the Rockets. Smith finished with a game-high 38 points (13-25 FG, 9-10 FT) during a victory over the Pistons. He also added 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal and 1 block during the stellar performance.
17
Walker Kessler
Utah Jazz big man Walker Kessler was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season.
Kessler joins Shaquille O’Neal as the only player in league history 21 years old or younger to record at least 170 blocks in a season while also recording an effective field goal percentage of at least 55.0 percent. He also maintained the highest “good possession” rate of any player who is in this age group, per ShotQuality.
He doesn’t provide tremendous versatility and he has a very low usage rate but he is already a star in his role and has a noticeable presence whenever he gets minutes.
16
Jalen Green
TEAM: Rockets
AGE: 21.72
This is a huge season for Jalen Green and the Houston Rockets, who could potentially take a big step forward after adding Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.
Green led all players currently under 23 years old in scoring as the ball handler in pick-and-roll sets last season, per Synergy. He is a very promising young scorer who ranks fourth-best in Offensive Daily Plus-Minus (O-DPM) projections among all players in this age group.
But the majority of advanced stats grade Green as among the worst defensive players in the NBA, which is something he will need to improve next season playing for a defensive-minded coach like Ime Udoka.
15
Bennedict Mathurin
TEAM: Pacers
AGE: 21.36
Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin was one of the leaders in points scored off the bench during his rookie season and could have a bigger role next season with the Pacers reportedly shopping Buddy Hield.
Mathurin was fouled on 20.2 percent of his shot attempts, per Cleaning the Glass, which was the highest among all players under 23 years old. Mathurin had the second-most points scored in transition among any player on this list, via Synergy.
While he is another player who desperately needs to improve his defensive output as well as his offensive efficiency, there is already a lot to love about Mathurin.
14
Chet Holmgren
TEAM: Thunder
AGE: 21.50
After missing the entirety of last season due to injury, it’s a bit complicated to project Thunder big man Chet Holmgren. But his teammate, Josh Giddey, believes Holmgren is a smart pick to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year — even over Victor Wembanyama.
Holmgren has looked incredibly exciting with the sample size that we have seen from him in an NBA offense. He has shot well off the dribble with better spacing than he had in the NCAA and his rim protection is elite.
If he is able to put it all together and stay healthy, the upside is wildly high for him in Oklahoma City.
13
Onyeka Okongwu
TEAM: Hawks
AGE: 22.88
Atlanta’s Onyeka Okongwu has flown under the radar a bit but is one of the more impactful two-way players in the NBA. His super-efficient true shooting percentage (67.6 percent) was the second-best among players younger than 23 years old last season.
Meanwhile, as we noted earlier this offseason, opponents scored 0.708 points per possession when Okongwu defended post-up possessions last season. That was the best mark among true big men who had at least as many opportunities in the NBA last season.
Okongwu should get more minutes in Atlanta’s frontcourt with John Collins no longer on the roster and it should pay dividends for his productivity.
12
Josh Giddey
TEAM: Thunder
AGE: 21.05
Oklahoma City’s Josh Giddey is one of just four players to record at least 1,800 points as well as 800 rebounds and 800 assists at age 20 years or younger. According to Stathead, the other three players are just LeBron James as well as Luka Doncic and LaMelo Ball.
He still needs to improve his overall offensive efficiency and shot quality, especially from beyond the arc, but he already has one of the most prolific floaters in the league.
Giddey showed what he can do when he is the primary offensive engine while playing for Team Australia during the 2023 FIBA World Cup. He averaged 19.4 points with 5.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game for the Boomers but may not have the same keys to the offense playing next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
11
Alperen Sengun
TEAM: Rockets
AGE: 21.26
Houston’s Alperen Sengun is a fascinating young player who has shown intriguing flashes.
The Rockets scored an additional 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Sengun was on the court relative to when he was not last season, via Cleaning the Glass, which was the best among players (minimum: 1,000 minutes) under 23 years old. Among players in this age group, per Synergy, he also had the second-most points scored as the roll man after ball screens last season.
Sengun could (and should) get a bigger role as he continues to develop. He served as more of an offensive hub and focal point while playing for the Turkish national team this summer and the results were encouraging. ESPN’s JJ Redick believes Sengun could have the type of breakout campaign where he becomes a household name.
10
Jalen Williams
TEAM: Thunder
AGE: 21.54
Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams didn’t have as much hype heading into his first professional season but finished second in the NBA’s Rookie of the Year voting. In fact, according to the catch-all metric DRIP, no player in the league exceeded his preseason expectations more than Williams did last season.
Back in March, he had arguably the best single-game performance of any rookie last season. Only three rookies ever recorded a 30-5-5 performance with a more efficient true shooting percentage: Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
Williams will have a crucial role for the Thunder on both sides of the ball moving forward.
9
Cade Cunningham
TEAM: Pistons
AGE: 22.09
Detroit’s Cade Cunningham, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft impressed during his time with Team USA’s Select Team during scrimmages, per reports.
His teammate, Jaden Ivey, thinks that people may be “shocked” by what they see from a healthy Cunningham. Now ready to return to action, Cunningham expects to take a leap next season and he is considered one of the early favorites to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award next season.
Cunningham is someone worth considering as a true breakout candidate next year.
8
Victor Wembanyama
TEAM: Spurs
AGE: 19.82
During a conversation with For The Win last season, Magic Johnson said that Victor Wembanyama will “probably make an impact like LeBron did” upon entering the league. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski has called Wembanyama the “greatest prospect” in team sports.
There are obviously high expectations for Wembanyama, though San Antonio may take it slow for him to start his NBA career. He is expected to play at the four, not to five, to begin his time in the league and the Spurs could “load manage” his minutes as he gets adjusted to the NBA.
Wembanyama could quickly climb up these rankings once this season begins but we’ll have to take a slightly more conservative “wait and see” approach until his career officially begins. Until then, we can reflect on his 27-point, 12-rebound performance or his 5-block performance in Las Vegas during NBA 2K24 Summer League.
7
Paolo Banchero
TEAM: Magic
AGE: 20.96
Orlando’s Paolo Banchero was named the NBA’s Rookie of the Year last season and quite deservedly so. He is 6-foot-10 and, per Synergy, managed to score the second-most points one-on-one in isolation among all players in this age group.
Banchero has a unique ability to draw contact and get to the charity stripes when driving to the basket. He attempted 196 free throws on these opportunities last season, per NBA.com, the most for any rookie on record since 2013-14. The only other rookies to even reach 170 attempts after drives were Ja Morant and Luka Doncic.
He and Wagner are perhaps the best young duo in the NBA heading into next season.
6
Scottie Barnes
TEAM: Raptors
AGE: 22.24
After winning the NBA’s Rookie of the Year in 2022, there were high expectations set for Toronto’s Scottie Barnes. Even though he had a slight regression with his jump shot as a second-year player, there was still lots to love.
For example, per BBall-Index, Barnes led the league in defensive positional versatility last season. When you look at what he adds even when he isn’t scoring, he is in elite company. Here are the other non-shooters (at least one 3-point attempt per game) who reached at least 1,000 rebounds as well as 600 assists, 100 steals and 100 blocks from beyond the arc after two professional seasons: LeBron James, Larry Bird and Lamar Odom.
Barnes may have more of a primary role in Toronto’s offense after the Raptors moved on from Fred VanVleet, which means he could have another leap to show us next season.
5
Tyrese Maxey
TEAM: 76ers
AGE: 22.98
Depending on what happens with the ongoing James Harden-Philadelphia trade request saga, Tyrese Maxey could have a huge year ahead of him — especially if he transitions to become more of a primary than secondary ball handler.
According to PBPStats, last season, Maxey averaged 24.9 points per 100 possessions when playing alongside Harden but 36.5 points per 100 without Harden on the court.
Overall, per Cleaning the Glass, Maxey shot 43 percent on 3-pointers and 51 percent from the corners. Both ranked as the best (minimum: 1,000 minutes) among players 23 years or younger.
Offensive Daily Plus-Minus (O-DPM) projects Maxey as the second-best among all players in this age group, trailing only Anthony Edwards. Maxey is considered one of the favorites to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player next season and it may be a smart bet.
4
Evan Mobley
TEAM: Cavaliers
AGE: 22.36
Although he was in just his second professional season, Cleveland’s Evan Mobley was a finalist for the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year and finished with the most Defensive Win Shares of any player in the league. Mobley also had the highest-ranked Wins Above Replacement among all players 22 years old or younger last season, per BBall-Index.
Mobley shot 78 percent at the rim, via Cleaning the Glass, which was the most efficient mark among all players (minimum: 1,000 minutes) under 23 years old. He also led all players on this list in scoring as the roll man after ball screens, per Synergy.
Perhaps he is the big man of the future for Team USA and he will play a crucial role for the Cavaliers. But his offense needs to evolve a bit for his team to make a deeper run in the NBA postseason.
3
Franz Wagner
TEAM: Magic
AGE: 22.17
After winning the 2023 FIBA World Cup for Germany, Orlando’s Franz Wagner is entering the season with some hype. Some analysts even think he would go No. 1 overall (ahead of Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes) in a do-over of the 2021 NBA Draft.
Wagner had 10.7 estimated wins last season, per Dunksandthrees.com, which ranked as the most among all players under 23 years old. Orlando outscored opponents by an additional 9.9 points per 100 possessions when Wagner was on the court relative to when he was not last season, via Cleaning the Glass, which was the best among players (minimum: 1,000 minutes) under 23 years old as well.
He has a unique ability to play on the ball at his 6-foot-10 height, via Synergy, finishing the largest share of his possessions as the ball handler in pick-and-roll sets. It’s not unfair to set potential All-Star expectations for him moving forward.
2
LaMelo Ball
TEAM: Hornets
AGE: 22.19
Some fans may have forgotten about how versatile LaMelo Ball is when he is on the court because he played just 36 games last season.
But what he has already accomplished in the NBA is nothing short of astonishing. Ball is one of just three players in league history with a career average of at least 19.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game at age 23 years old or younger. According to Stathead, the other two players are just Luka Doncic and Oscar Robertson.
When he returns to Charlotte with a full bill of health, we can likely expect greatness.
1
Anthony Edwards
TEAM: Timberwolves
AGE: 22.23
Anthony Edwards stepped up as the clear alpha on Team USA during the 2023 FIBA World Cup. He also has a solid case to make as perhaps the best young player in the league.
In fact, Edwards is currently rated No. 1 overall (2.77) among all players under 23 years old in DPM, which is considered the best all-in-one metric in basketball. His all-around dominance plays a massive factor into why. Here are the only other players to record at least 4,500 points as well as 250 steals and 3-pointers during their first three seasons in the NBA, per Stathead: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, Vince Carter and Allen Iverson.
That’s already pretty good company but there is still plenty left to accomplish. According to DARKO, Edwards is projected to have the longest career longevity (13.7 years remaining) of any player in the league.
