Ranking Big Ten football teams by 2023 projected SP+ Rankings

In case you missed it Tuesday, ESPN’s resident analytics expert, Bill Connelly, came out with the very early 2023 projected SP+ Rankings (subscription required) for all college football teams, and yeah, Ohio State is mighty high up the list.

It’s fun to not just compare the Buckeyes against the nation, but also its Big Ten colleagues like Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin to see what the SP+ Rankings say about what the pecking order might be in the conference next season. There are some mild surprises when diving into the numbers, and it makes for fun debate.

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As a reminder, the SP+ Rankings take into account things like returning production, recent recruiting, and historical success, but it’s not an exact formula by any means. It’s a proprietary recipe cooked up by Connelly that slices and dices things we don’t know much about.

Regardless, for your viewing and dissecting pleasure, here’s a look at all fourteen teams as ranked by the early, projected SP+ Rankings for 2023. As an added bonus, we throw in future Big Ten members USC and UCLA because — well, we can.

No. 89 Overall - Northwestern Wildcats

Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald (center) takes the field with his team against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ryan Field. Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: -9.9
Offensive SP+: 14.4 (No. 124)
Defensive SP+: 24.3 (No. 49)

 

No. 83 Overall - Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Greg Schiano with Aron Cruickshank of Rutgers in the fourth quarter as Rutgers crushed Temple 61-14 in their season opener at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on September 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: -7.0
Offensive SP+: 19.7 (No. 100)
Defensive SP+: 26.7 (No. 65)

No. 64 Overall - Indiana Hoosiers

Nov 12, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen gestures from the sideline during the first half of the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 0.6
Offensive SP+: 28.6 (No. 56)
Defensive SP+: 28.1 (No. 70)

No. 49 Overall - Purdue Boilermakers

A Purdue student beats their Big Bass Drum, Indianapolis, Saturday, May 28, 2022, during the 500 Festival Parade. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 5.6
Offensive SP+: 30.8 (No. 45)
Defensive SP+: 25.3 (No. 56)

 

No. 48 Overall - Nebraska Cornhuskers

Oct 7, 2022; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Casey Thompson (11) throws the ball against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during the second half at SHI Stadium. Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 6.1
Offensive SP+: 28.6 (No. 58)
Defensive SP+: 22.5 (No. 37)

No. 47 Overall - Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker watches his team warm up before the game Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Spartan Stadium. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 6.1
Offensive SP+: 30.2 (No. 48)
Defensive SP+: 24.1 (No. 47)

No. 44 Overall - Illinois Fighting Illini

Nov 26, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema leads his team on the field against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 6.6
Offensive SP+: 23.2 (No. 82)
Defensive SP+: 16.6 (No. 13)

No. 41 Overall - Maryland Terrapins

Nov 19, 2022; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) run by Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau (44) during the second half at SECU Stadium. Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 9.3
Offensive SP+: 30.9 (No. 44)
Defensive SP+: 21.5 (No. 30)

No. 30 Overall - Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck motions during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 12.7
Offensive SP+: 27.9 (No. 61)
Defensive SP+: 15.3 (No. 7)

No. 27 Overall - Iowa Hawkeyes

Oct. 22, 2022; Columbus, Ohio; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz coaches during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 13.5
Offensive SP+: 23.2 (No. 81)
Defensive SP+: 9.8 (No. 1)

No. 25 Overall - Wisconsin Badgers

Dec 27, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second half of the 2022 Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 14.3
Offensive SP+: 30.6 (No. 46)
Defensive SP+: 16.4 (No. 11)

 

No. 5 Overall - Penn State Nittany Lions

Nov 12, 2022; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Maryland 30-0. Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 24.4
Offensive SP+: 37.9 (No. 21)
Defensive SP+: 13.5 (No. 5)

 

No. 3 Overall - Michigan Wolverines

Dec 4, 2021; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive line coach Sherrone Moore (left), head coach Jim Harbaugh (center), and special teams coordinator Jay Harbaugh against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Conference championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 28.8
Offensive SP+: 41.8 (No. 8)
Defensive SP+: 13.0 (No. 4)

 

No. 2 Overall - Ohio State Buckeyes

Dec. 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Miyan Williams (3) celebrates a rushing touchdown with offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr. (77) against Georgia Bulldogs during the second quarter of the Peach Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Syndication The Columbus Dispatch

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 30.0
Offensive SP+: 46.3 (No. 1)
Defensive SP+: 16.3 (No. 10)

NEXT … USC and UCLA

No. 21 Overall - UCLA Bruins

Aug 28, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins place kickers Luke Akers (99), Nicholas Barr-Mira (2), Ari Libenson (96), and RJ Lopez (93) pose during the game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Rose Bowl. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 15.0
Offensive SP+: 40.2 (No. 11)
Defensive SP+: 25.2 (No. 55)

No. 10 Overall- USC Trojans

Dec 4, 2021; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears tight end Elijah Mojarro (81) celebrates with USC Trojans wide receiver John Jackson III (80) after scoring a touchdown against the California Golden Bears during the second quarter at FTX Field at California Memorial Stadium. Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking Down the Numbers

Projected SP+: 21.3
Offensive SP+: 45.3 (No. 3)
Defensive SP+: 24.1 (No. 46)

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