This time of year in the NFL, quarterback play reigns supreme.
Judging by the slate we’ve received for the divisional round coming this weekend, quality quarterback play can come from very different and very distinctive backgrounds.
The NFC side of the postseason field features two former No. 1 overall picks (Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield), a Mr. Irrelevant last draft pick (Brock Purdy), and a developmental prospect (Jordan Love) who sat behind a selfish egotist for nearly half a decade. And one could reasonably argue that the former top draft selections are the worst of the bunch. Go figure.
In the AFC, we’ve got two future Hall of Famers (Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen) meeting up for another surefire instant classic, the greatest rookie quarterback in history (C.J. Stroud), and a former unanimous MVP (Lamar Jackson) enjoying a resurgent season for the top overall seed. This final four has never screamed “pick ’em” more.
What’s clear about all eight quarterbacks left in this year’s NFL playoffs is that there is no exact science to finding your franchise guy. You might select them at the top of the draft. You might use a throwaway pick at the end of the draft and get extremely lucky. Heck, you might just focus your efforts on a reclamation project because you’ve got the time and energy. There is no right or wrong answer when trying to find a good quarterback.
Whatever works to find The Man, right?
Ahead of what should be a bonkers postseason weekend, let’s take stock of the divisional-round quarterbacks left. That’s right. Let’s make a totally definitive ranking of the NFL’s cream of the crop under center.
8
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is Baker Mayfield’s moment. It turns out that the guy who couldn’t get it done in Cleveland, who was scapegoated for organizational incompetence, can actually play!
No one will confuse Mayfield for being one of the faces of the league. He still has limitations on his game. He still doesn’t always read the entire field. And he’s probably a little too small to be a long-term franchise quarterback. But hey, 2023 was the first time Mayfield eclipsed 4,000 yards passing. He enjoyed career highs across the board and was 12th in expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) composite, per RBDSM.com. There’s a legitimate confident element to Mayfield’s game right now that makes the Buccaneers a dangerous underdog.
How can you not love Baker Mayfield pic.twitter.com/We1LllO1CS
— Christopher Powers (@CPowers14) January 16, 2024
The dude is almost certainly the “worst” quarterback remaining, but don’t get it twisted. He belongs.
7
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Another reclamation project, Jared Goff has proven he was not all Sean McVay during his time with the Los Angeles Rams. No, no, ladies and gentlemen. If supported and coached well, Goff has shown he can be the starting quarterback of a legitimate championship contender.
Because, yes, that’s what the Detroit Lions are: a championship contender. It’s still so jarring to even read in print.
Goff was one of the Rams’ lead catalysts in their run to Super Bowl 53 five years ago. But a woeful performance in that fateful game demonstrated that McVay probably needed to hold Goff’s hand to be successful. This is no longer the case. In tandem with Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Goff has helped reinvent the Lions’ offense. They are simultaneously a power-running team that also owns the middle of the field in the vertical passing game.
Jared Goff completed all 21 of his passes when he was not pressured for 266 yards & a TD, the 2nd-most non-pressured passes without an incompletion in a game since 2018.
Goff had just a 0.3% chance of completing all 21 passes (1 in 372).
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/ocYKLZUZlS
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 15, 2024
None of that is possible without Goff, who finished 11th in EPA and CPOE composite this season and outdueled his Rams replacement, Matthew Stafford, for Detroit’s second playoff win since the Soviet Union fell.
Goff doesn’t have the same flashy elements to his game as some of the other names on this list. But that’s not his skill set, and the Lions don’t need him to have it to make a deep playoff run, anyway.
6
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
It would’ve been blasphemous for me to rank Purdy above any of the other sparkplug signal-callers still playing. I understand he’s probably more than a system quarterback propped up by Kyle Shanahan and a roster of All-Pros in their respective primes. I also respect his play this year. Purdy wouldn’t have been fifth in the NFL passing and first in general efficiency if he didn’t belong. There’s real value in being a point guard quarterback when you have to distribute the ball amongst multiple star players. Not every difference-making passer could be capable of such a responsibility.
But for the most part, Purdy shines best when everything is rolling for the 49ers. Dare I say it, there are some front-running elements to his make-up. Because I’m quite confident someone will eventually give San Francisco a roadblock, what will happen when they need him to rescue their season? If it’s anything like that dreadful four-interception effort against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas, the 49ers will be in trouble:
Ravens pick off Brock Purdy for the 4th time tonight. #RavensFlock
📺: #BALvsSF on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pkwa8SXokx pic.twitter.com/bvuYHRfC6X— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2023
My best advice for the 49ers and Purdy would be to simply hold a lead this entire postseason. Easier said than done.
5
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
I’ve seen enough. The Packers did “it” again. They followed two Hall of Fame quarterbacks (Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers) with another guy who looks like he will become a superstar soon enough. (Chicago Bears fans, look away.)
I’m talking, of course, about Jordan Love. With the way Love has played in Green Bay lately — culminating in a virtuoso performance in Dallas on Sunday — the sky looks like the limit for this young quarterback.
3rd down
Play clock winding down
Cover 0 blitzJordan Love isn’t fazed. pic.twitter.com/3Eeb16ZIK3
— Brandon Carwile (@PackerScribe) January 15, 2024
Love’s biggest drawbacks this year have been consistency. He’s demonstrated terrific poise from time to time but has struggled to play in structure and to make plays off schedule. Since about Halloween, that hasn’t been much of an issue. Love has shown he might already be one of the finest pocket manipulators in the sport and, just by listening to Matt LaFleur, can execute the Packers’ quietly dominant offense.
Drawing the 49ers in Love’s second career playoff start is quite the mountain to scale. But I wouldn’t doubt him being prepared for the challenge.
4
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Gasp, what? The two-time MVP and two-time Super Bowl MVP is just fourth?
I don’t think ranking Mahomes this low, even with his pedigree and resume, should be all that shocking. And it’s more of a reflection of his horrendous, no-good receivers than it is of his play. Unfortunately, while I’m sure he’d be great at it, Mahomes can’t throw and catch the ball to himself.
The Chiefs dropped 44 passes this year. In their shaky wild-card win over the Miami Dolphins, seemingly the only person who could get consistently open without a horrific drop was Rashee Rice. There is a distinctive explosive element missing from the defending champions in their repeat pursuit.
It’d be foolish to ignore this fatal flaw.
Kelce? pic.twitter.com/1Cwst2fhtU
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) January 14, 2024
Mahomes has conjured all sorts of wild magic en route to what is already a Hall of Fame career. At the peak of his powers, I consider him the best quarterback ever to play. But overcoming these vulnerable Chiefs on offense feels like an elaborate act not even he is capable of.
3
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud has been so good as a rookie that I’m ready to place him in the same class as Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. The term is overused in this day and age, but Stroud is the definition of generational.
At every turn, Stroud has been a 16-cylinder engine for a Houston Texans team that no one foresaw playing in the divisional round this time last year. He throws with anticipation. He’s got a rocket launcher of an arm. He plays better when the game is on the line. Folks, we’re talking about a star, face-of-the-league quarterback who only just turned 22 in October.
Lamar Jackson was asked about CJ Stroud's first playoff game as a rookie: "From my experience, he played a lot better than I did from my rookie game, I'll say that. … He did great. He did great."
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) January 16, 2024
Successfully conquering Mike Macdonald’s Ravens defense feels impossible on paper. Saturday afternoon will assuredly present Stroud with his toughest test of the season. No one has solved Baltimore’s defensive Rubik’s Cube, and it’s hard to see Stroud being the first. But he’s no ordinary rookie. So don’t be surprised when Stroud is nailing downfield dimes in the fourth quarter of a tight road playoff battle.
He really is built differently.
2
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Technically, we’ve seen Lamar Jackson play better. His unanimous MVP campaign in 2019 was rooted in the Ravens’ star leading the NFL in passing touchdowns while simultaneously rushing for over 1,200 yards. With all due respect to Michael Vick and Cam Newton, there has never been a better dual-threat quarterback.
That said, I think there’s a legitimate case that Jackson was more impressive this year. The numbers don’t pop off the page as much, but he still accounted for nearly 4,500 yards of offense by himself. He still created over 30 touchdowns. He was still the league’s eighth-most efficient quarterback. More importantly, thanks to the tutelage of offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Jackson’s passing proficiency evolved in a way that is sustainable to his health and career and will help him carry the Ravens against the other AFC heavyweights.
The play that officially broke the Dolphins
Brought to you by Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers pic.twitter.com/DKp3u2oI6p
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) January 14, 2024
Not by coincidence, Jackson is the heavy favorite for more MVP honors. This could be his narrative-defining postseason. This could be his crowning moment, with a run all the way to Las Vegas in February.
We’ll see how he snatches the opportunity.
1
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
This January, I want everyone to watch how pro football’s Terminator puts the Bills on his back.
Few quarterbacks have been as productive as Allen since his breakout 2020 campaign. In the last four years, Allen has accounted for 166 touchdowns by himself (130 passing, 36 rushing). A toolsy automaton built like Conan the Barbarian, football comes easy to Allen. And it helps a ton that he’s a cold-blooded assassin when it’s time for the Bills to drive a dagger into their opponent. He is the only player alive who can challenge Patrick Mahomes’ undisputed title of the best quarterback in football.
And he knows it.
Mahomes vs. Allen in the #NFLPlayoffs again.
This time, in Buffalo. pic.twitter.com/4N7zJu1BE4
— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2024
If not for an agonizing playoff defeat to the Chiefs two years ago, there’s a distinct possibility Allen would’ve already owned a Super Bowl ring. Such is life in the NFL’s unforgiving playoff crucible. This January, especially when considering a marvelous wild-card game performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, could serve as Allen’s redemption.
The Bills haven’t lost since Thanksgiving weekend.
With Allen serving as their Mack Truck of a quarterback, they might not lose again until the 2024 regular season.
