Is it safe yet? Can we come out? (Looks around.)
Phew. OK. The coast looks clear.
As Aaron Rodgers officially moves on to the “Big Apple” and the New York Jets, he leaves behind a rather large chasm. The same can be said for Tom Brady in retirement (for now). No, I’m not talking about the Green Bay Packers’ barren depth chart. I’m referring to the quarterback power vacuum that now exists in the NFC.
Sure, there are certainties like Jalen Hurts, the elite leader of the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. But after him, we’re not exactly looking at a proven top-shelf conference of quarterback play. There are undoubtedly quarterbacks with tons of promise, but that’s all they are for now: unproven commodities who have shown flashes. Otherwise, this is far from a murderer’s row of the most critical position in football.
With two future Hall of Famers officially leaving the NFC landscape, here’s a ranking of where all current 16 starters in the conference might stand at the end of the 2023 season. This is a projection based on an individual’s talent, their current team situation and supporting cast, and past sample sizes of play.
And yes: the results are clearly very scientific.
16
Washington Commanders: Sam Howell
Why he’s ranked here: Howell’s only thrown 19 passes in the NFL, so who knows? He may well turn into a viable starter. But until further notice, he’s a former fifth-round draft pick who couldn’t beat out Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz for a starting job.
15
Insert Carolina Panthers QB
Why Roster Spot is ranked here: With all due respect to Andy Dalton, the Panthers’ current starting quarterback isn’t on their roster. After their trade with the Chicago Bears to get to No. 1 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, Frank Reich’s regime will almost certainly select a young signal caller.
And I don’t expect the said future signal caller to sit behind one of everyone’s favorite journeymen punchbags in Andy Dalton. Since Chicago owns Carolina’s top picks for the next couple of years, the Panthers’ front office has little incentive to unofficially “tank.”
Insert QB will have rough patches at first, especially in one of the worst offensive talent situations in pro football. Don’t expect any meaningful jumps in play until 2024 at the earliest.
14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
Why he’s ranked here: Don’t get me wrong. Baker Mayfield’s small redemption with the Los Angeles Rams was one of the finest stories of the 2022 NFL season. Even as he becomes the Buccaneers’ likely starter, he’s still a mediocre player. A paltry 6.6 yards per attempt and four touchdown passes in an awful L.A. situation doesn’t paint the picture of much improvement in a dreadful Tampa Bay situation.
13
Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Ridder
Why he’s ranked here: The Falcons might be forgoing a pursuit of Lamar Jackson partly because they believe in Ridder, but I can’t say I’m there yet. The now NFL sophomore showed relative promise down the stretch, just not anything that makes you say “Franchise Player” yet. With an entire offseason of training while working with one of the league’s best skill groups — the pressure is on Ridder to make this work.
12
San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance/Brock Purdy/Sam Darnold Cerberus
Why they’re ranked here: After they signed Javon Hargrave to a handsome contract, it’s clear the 49ers think they don’t need a difference-making QB to win a Super Bowl. That or they think they can wring out cost-effective play from a three-headed “monster” of former top-three pick Trey Lance, former seventh-rounder Brock Purdy, and even… Sam Darnold.
I don’t think the 49ers are necessarily wrong on both accounts, but the latter is more relevant to this ranking.
Lance has a career 102 pass attempts after a redshirt rookie year, and an injury-ruined second season robbed him of a larger sample size. Purdy is a glorified (and limited) point guard propped up because he plays for one of the sport’s most popular teams. And Darnold? Well, Darnold is a quarterbacking meme who can occasionally drop dimes.
This team’s QB room stinks for now, but the potential for high upside exists.
11
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
Why he’s ranked here: The Packers better hope Love is ready to step into the massive shoes of his predecessor. If Love isn’t a quality starter after spending three seasons on the bench, then Green Bay and general manager Brian Gutekunst are in trouble.
The spot-duty play Love had against the Philadelphia Eagles last year with Rodgers benched in a blowout showed off some quality ability. But anyone can thrive when they aren’t the focal point of a defense’s game plan. Giving defensive coordinators nightmares when they know you’re coming is what’s impressive. It remains to be seen whether Love is capable of doing that.
10
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Why he’s ranked here: “Danny Dimes” might be “Danny Dollars” now after a colossal contract extension, but that doesn’t change his place in the NFC’s landscape. He’s an above-average quarterback at his best, which still occurs too sparingly to anoint him as the face of a franchise. Perhaps another year working in tandem with Brian Daboll transforms Jones into a field-tilter.
However, 2023 will be Jones’ fifth NFL season. At a certain point, you are who you are.
9
New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr
Why he’s ranked here: Let’s not beat around the bush.
The Saints acquired Carr because they have aspirations of winning the NFC South — what might be the NFL’s worst division. Any other meaningful goals, and it’s sad to think about, are probably just gravy.
To be fair to the Saints, they know what they’re getting in Carr. A quarterback with top-10 ability who melts into a bottom-third signal caller in some of the most inexplicable instances. Carr will be fine with the Saints. But that’s all he’ll be… fine.
8
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
Why he’s ranked here: With all due respect to Stafford and the Super Bowl title he finally won with the Rams, next year’s iteration of the team will be good enough to tank for Caleb Williams and the No. 1 overall pick. Full stop.
I do think Stafford has something left in the tank. Unfortunately, the Rams do not have the infrastructure to support an aging, oft-injured signal caller in the last days of his career. Stafford still has unique abilities in spurts, but he’s a middling quarterback in his own conference — which isn’t all his fault.
7
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
Why he’s ranked here: I find Cousins to be in essentially the same position as Stafford.
A quarterback in their mid-30s with a measure of unique ability left, but they’re on a mediocre roster. Cousins is going to get his numbers. Justin Jefferson alone will guarantee that. But the Vikings were paper tigers last year and aren’t likened to improve all that much in one offseason. In a way, Cousins is the paper tiger of quarterbacks: He’ll thrive when you don’t really need him to, and he’ll wilt when it’s time to step up.
Cousins was never good enough to carry Minnesota alone, and he won’t start now. You can find worse guys under center in the NFC, but you can also find a whole heck of a lot better.
6
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
Why he’s ranked here: I know the Lions might profess otherwise now, but there’s no way anyone in that organization envisioned Goff becoming a legitimate long-term option again after getting him in the Stafford trade.
Roughly two years later, that is precisely who Goff is: The Lions’ potential future.
Detroit could, of course, opt to select a quarterback in the first round of this year’s draft. Someone they could develop while Goff holds down the fort. But with the way general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell speak about Goff, I’m not sure that’s the plan.
I think this new revitalized era in Detroit has Goff in mind as the centerpiece. It might not be an awful bet. He has been part of a winning organization in the past. Plus, it’d be hard to score just three points in a Super Bowl again (cough, cough) if this edition of the Lions ever got there.
5
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Why he’s ranked here: At his best, Murray is one of the most electric quarterbacks in football. Few names in this sport can take over a game with their arm and legs like the Cardinals’ star. Period.
At his worst, Murray might be a little immature for his standing as the face of a franchise. He might be someone who’s good but not quite good enough to shine in the winter.
Murray is currently in the process of rehabbing an ACL tear — an injury that doesn’t rob elite players of their entire careers anymore. Whenever he does return to full capacity, the questions surrounding his power, influence, and talent won’t go away in Arizona. At least until he wins something meaningful.
4
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
Why he’s ranked here: Geno Smith’s redemption story in 2022 was one of the best the NFL has seen in years. A former much-maligned second-round pick turned journeyman morphing into a quality starter after years? That’s gold. Absolute gold. A script writer couldn’t do better.
Similarly to the Lions, the Seahawks might draft their long-term answer at quarterback at the top of this week’s first round. By that same token, even if they don’t, they’re in excellent hands with Smith.
He was one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks last year and isn’t going away any time soon.
3
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields
Why he’s ranked here: On the one hand, Fields has a lot of work to do to become a passer worthy of competing with the NFC’s big boys. On the other, he’s got D.J. Moore and Co. to throw to now and a cavalcade of draft picks the Bears will likely use in investments to keep him upright.
Because the Bears had one of the NFL’s worst offensive rosters (and might have been tanking otherwise), Fields almost broke the single-season rushing record out of sheer survival in 2022. What happens when he’s supported? What happens when he can play comfortably?
Sheer chaos, for any opposing defensive coordinator, that’s what.
I might even be hedging by making Fields a top-3 NFC quarterback because his ceiling is much higher.
2
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Why he’s ranked here: By virtue of being the Dallas Cowboys quarterback, Prescott’s mistakes will almost always be amplified — regardless of fairness.
The criticism of Prescott failing to rise to the occasion as a frontrunner are somewhat unfounded because he already has to do so much for the Dallas offense. So, if he’s the one that falters, naturally, it’s all his fault, even if his teammates let him down. But he still has to be better in the crunch. The playoffs do not offer an opportunity to “front-run,” sadly enough for these Cowboys.
Prescott and this complete Dallas roster will romp through 2023’s regular season. It’s what they do. It’s what Prescott does. Whatever comes after that will be another climactic point in the career of a quarterback with an anti-clutch “monkey” on his back.
1
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Why he’s ranked here: Jalen Hurts is now not only one of the NFL’s wealthiest quarterbacks, he’s also one of the best. Even with the sorry state of the current NFC, he would’ve run away with this mantel as the conference’s top signal caller.
There are no weaknesses in the game of a superstar capable of tormenting defenses with his arm, legs and processing intelligence. Hurts is a one-man wrecking crew who can take over a game on a whim. Provided the Eagles continue to support him well — and there’s no indication they won’t — we’re talking about a player with legitimate Hall-of-Fame potential.
Hurts is that electric, that special, that much of a game-changer. Don’t be surprised if he picks up where he left off after a Super Bowl loss– putting the NFL on notice at the helm of a green-and-black juggernaut.
