Some teams have nothing but pride to play for in Week 18.
The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, for example, have already locked down the top speeds and first round byes in their respective conferences. On the other side of the spectrum, 10 other teams have zero playoff aspirations. The only thing left to be decided in the final week of their seasons is where they’ll wind up picking in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Somewhere in the middle lie the games that matter. Some count only for seeding and the right to host a postseason game or two. Others are a de facto playoff game against a division rival for one or both teams involved.
Which games deserve the most attention? Let’s break down the seven most important games for the 2024 NFL Playoff field, starting with the teams that need the most help and finishing with an AFC South showdown that unofficially kicks off the “win or go home” season in Week 18.
7
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Saints playoff implications: Win and the NFC South title can be theirs if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers. New Orleans can also earn a Wild Card bid if the Packers and Seahawks both lose in Week 18.
Falcons playoff implications: Win and the NFC South title can be theirs if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers.
Saints playoff odds: 29 percent
Falcons playoff odds: 13 percent
This NFC South rivalry game features two teams in the playoff hunt, but falls last on this list because neither controls its own destiny. The Saints and Falcons each have their sights set on a division title, but they’d need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose to the 2-14 Carolina Panthers to make it a possibility.
Only New Orleans keeps a glimmer of hope alive should Tampa handle its business. The Saints would still need the Green Bay Packers to lose to the surging Chicago Bears AND the Seattle Seahawks to slump their way to a road loss against the 4-12 Arizona Cardinals. That would clear the path for a Wild Card spot and likely first round matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.
6
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Steelers playoff implications: In with a win over the Ravens AND help. And maybe without a win, but that’s gonna require a lot to break right.
Ravens playoff implications: None; they’re already locked into the AFC’s top seed.
Steelers playoff odds: 44 percent
Ravens playoff odds: 100 percent
Pittsburgh is, for the 17th straight season, guaranteed a non-losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. The question now is whether he can ride former third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph to the promised land, then snap a seven year drought when it comes to playoff wins.
Fortunately for the Steelers, they won’t be facing the Ravens’ top guys. Baltimore has nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding.
Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Ravens have the depth of the NFL’s best team and won’t lack motivation with the opportunity to keep a hated division rival out of the postseason. In case of a loss, Pittsburgh would need the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose to the Tennessee Titans, the Denver Broncos to beat the Las Vegas Raiders AND the Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts game to not end in a tie.
That’s a lot on which to rely, so let’s simplify things. If the Steelers win in Week 18, they’d just need one of these three things to happen to make the playoffs:
- the Buffalo Bills lose to the Miami Dolphins OR
- the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans OR
- the Texans-Colts game ends in a tie.
5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Packers playoff implications: Win and earn a Wild Card spot. Lose and things get very complicated.
Bears playoff implications: None.
Packers playoff odds: 64 percent
Bears playoff odds: 0 percent
In 2022, the Packers needed a Week 18 home win over an ascending NFC North rival to make the postseason. That culminated in a 20-16 loss to the Detroit Lions in Aaron Rodgers’ last game with the team.
In 2023, Jordan Love will try to push the Packers to the playoffs in his first season as a starter. He needs… a Week 18 home win over an ascending NFC North rival to make the postseason. This time it’s the Bears, who are 5-2 in their last seven games and have fielded the NFL’s most efficient defense since their Week 10 bye.
If Green Bay loses to Chicago, here’s everying Love would need in order to make his postseason debut:
- the Minnesota Vikings lose to the Detroit Lions (who’ve already clinched their playoff spot), and
- the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals, and
- either the Saints or Buccaneers lose.
Phew. Probably easier just to take care of things at Lambeau Field.
4
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Jaguars playoff implications: A win clinches the division. A loss is a real problem, but wouldn’t eliminate Jacksonville.
Titans playoff implications: None.
Jaguars playoff odds: 70 percent
Titans playoff odds: n/a
The Titans have the chance to do what the Jags did two years ago to the poor Indianapolis Colts; ruin their playoff hopes to cap a lost season. Jacksonville knocked off the Colts in Week 18 that year despite a 2-14 record (at the time) to make sure Jonathan Taylor couldn’t add to his 1,800-plus rushing yard total in the postseason.
Tennessee has nothing but pride to play for against the team that kept it out of the playoffs last season. A Jaguars loss wouldn’t eliminate them from the postseason entirely, but a Wild Card bid would only be possible if:
- the Steelers lose to the Ravens, and
- the Broncos lose to the Raiders, and
- Texans-Colts doesn’t end in a tie.
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Buccaneers playoff implications: A win clinches the NFC South. A loss eliminates the Bucs from the playoffs. A tie leaves them in need of help.
Panthers playoff implications: My friend, have you even seen this team?
Buccaneers playoff odds: 66 percent
Panthers playoff odds: lol no
The Buccaneers were supposed to tank their way to the top of the 2024 NFL Draft. Instead, they’ve turned 2022’s worst starting quarterback into one of the league’s best redemption stories and stand one victory over the league’s worst team away from an NFC South crown.
Tampa Bay has been revived under Baker Mayfield, leading to Week 18’s de facto playoff game. Beat 2-14 Carolina and the Bucs are hosting a playoff game. Lose and their season is, rightfully, over (see the Carson Wentz-led 2021 Indianapolis Colts if you think this is impossible). Tie and they’ll need a Saints loss or Seahawks loss AND Packers loss or tie to earn an 18th game.
2
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Bills playoff implications: Buffalo wins the AFC East title and second overall seed with a win. If they lose they can still make the playoffs as long as either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars lose OR the Texans-Colts game ends in a tie.
Dolphins playoff implications: Miami wins the AFC East title and second overall seed with a win. A loss means a Wild Card bid and looming road games.
Bills playoff odds: 86 percent
Dolphins playoff odds: 100 percent
Sunday night’s primetime game is for the AFC East title. A win for Miami means a home game for the Dolphins to potentially earn their first playoff victory since Dave Wannstedt was head coach — and notch the team’s second win over a team with a better-than-.500 record this fall. A win for Buffalo means welcoming a Wild Card for to western New York in January — and could be the difference between extending its season and going home for the year.
The Bills will *probably* still make the playoffs with a loss. But they need one of these three things to happen in order to keep Week 18’s primetime game from turning into a do-or-die situation:
- the Ravens beat the Steelers, or
- the Titans beat the Jaguars, or
- Texans-Colts ends in a tie.
That makes it very likely Buffalo’s headed back to the postseason regardless of their result in south Florida — but it’s not locked in yet.
1
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Texans playoff implications: Win and earn at least a Wild Card bid (and maybe the AFC South title). Tie and they can still get in, but need help.
Colts playoff implications: Win and earn at least a Wild Card bid (and maybe the AFC South title). Tie and they can still get in, but need help.
Texans playoff odds: 45 percent
Colts playoff odds: 55 percent
This is as pure a playoff game you’ll find in a non-playoff scenario. The winner makes it to the postseason. The loser is eliminated. If the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the winner of this game takes the AFC South crown and will get to host a playoff game next week.
A tie means the both teams can still make the playoffs if the Jaguars lose and the Steelers either lose or tie. In this scenario, the Colts would win the AFC South at 9-7-1 over the 9-7-1 Texans by virtue of their Week 2 head to head win over Houston.
