Editor’s note: This story was originally published Dec. 1 and has since been updated.
College football’s conference championship weekend is here, so we’re just days away from the College Football Playoff selection committee announcing which four teams will compete for a national title in the final year of this format.
The four-team playoff format has delivered a decade of heated debates over the value of things like the eye test versus head-to-head matchups and whether it’s really the four best teams or the four most deserving teams. And the hypothetical scenarios and speculation are abundant until (and often after) the committee makes its decision.
It’s chaos sometimes, and we here at For The Win love and root for chaos.
This season’s playoff race certainly has been an interesting one, and headed into conference championship weekend, there are still eight teams with varying degrees of reasonable paths to the playoff. So since this is the final four-team College Football Playoff, we’re taking a look at some of the biggest chaos scenarios that could create a nightmare for the selection committee and leave fans enraged regardless.
RELATED: The path to the College Football Playoff for each of the top-8 teams in contention
6
Texas loses to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game (and the top-4 teams win)
Other than a supremely disappointing end to Texas’ standout season, this is barely worth being mentioned as a disaster scenario for the playoff committee. All a Longhorns loss would do — aside from galvanizing the “Texas is NOT back” crowd — is eliminate Texas from contention and, by extension, Alabama, which under this scenario would be eliminated anyway with a loss to Georgia.
Update: Texas won the Big 12 championship game.
5
Florida State loses to Louisville (and the top-3 teams win)
Another not-huge disaster scenario. And a loss here would be less surprising than Texas loss if for no other reason than Florida State is without its starting quarterback after Jordan Travis’ injury. Other than Florida State falling in the rankings and opening the No. 4 spot, Louisville winning the ACC title likely wouldn’t change too much for the playoff committee.
However, if you coupled a Florida State loss with a Texas loss, there’s a chance this maybe would open the door for the Pac-12 to get two teams in if both Washington and Oregon look exceptional in their rematch. Still improbable for any conference to get two teams in, the Pac-12 seemingly has the best chance to make it happen. But the dying conference likely needs a Florida State loss first.
4
Michigan loses to Iowa (Georgia and Florida State win)
Honestly, there’s a chance Michigan would still make the playoff — and over Iowa, obviously — if it somehow walked away with its first defeat of the season. Of course, the committee would serve up an explanation with Olympic-level mental gymnastics to justify it. But regardless, a lot of people would be furious.
If a Michigan loss means the Wolverines are out, who would join Georgia, Florida State and the winner of the Pac-12 title? Again, the Pac-12 could possibly get two teams in if both look good but Oregon wins. But say Washington also wins; then is it Ohio State? One-loss Big 12 champ Texas?
3
Washington wins, but Georgia, Michigan and Florida State lose
What do you do if three of the top-4 teams lose? Does this open a door for Ohio State? If an SEC title could get Alabama in, does the transitive property mean Texas gets in too with a win?
If Texas loses in this scenario, it’s likely out of contention. But if Texas wins in this scenario, do the Longhorns, Crimson Tide and Buckeyes all jump into the top four? Among one-loss teams, does losing in a conference title game mean more or less than losing in the regular season?
But back to the Huskies. If they beat Oregon as the No. 3 team and everyone else loses, would they get the No. 1 spot? And then how many of the losing teams mentioned in this scenario get in? Could the committee really justify keeping one of the newly one-loss teams, and what’s the most important factor in deciding? This isn’t the toughest scenario in our opinion, but the committee probably doesn’t want to think about it.
2
Oregon barely edges Washington, while Georgia, Michigan and Florida State lose
The biggest question here is would this scenario increase the Pac-12’s chances of getting two teams in or make it more likely that the conference gets shut out, again, and in a year it truly deserves at least one playoff team. If all the top-4 teams lose, and the Huskies lose by just one score, the committee might just want to start pulling names out of a hat.
Update: Washington beat Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.
1
Alabama beats Georgia (and Michigan, Washington and Florida State win)
The Crimson Tide winning the SEC championship game would likely have the most chaotic impact on the playoff picture. If they win, it seems impossible for the committee to deny Alabama a spot as a one-loss SEC champ that took down the No. 1 team. But would a title-game loss knock Georgia out? Would the SEC actually have a chance for two teams in or is it more likely to be shut out? And what if in this scenario it’s a one-score game or Alabama wins with a last-second field goal but the Bulldogs looked really strong still?
Say with a loss, Georgia ultimately falls to No. 5, and Alabama is in; then what happens to Texas if the Longhorns win the Big 12? They beat the Crimson Tide earlier this season and would then be one-loss conference champs, so could the committee really deny them a spot?
In a season with so many playoff contenders, it seems particularly unlikely for one conference to get two teams in. But barring an Oregon-Washington thriller and blowouts elsewhere, this seems like the most reasonable path for one conference to have two teams in. And it’s still super unlikely, but the committee is surely hoping it doesn’t have to address anything like this.
Update: Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC championship game.
