The Rams were not supposed to win that game. The went into Thursday’s matchup with the Raiders as 6.5-point home underdogs, not knowing who would start or finish the game at quarterback.
John Wolford started but it was Baker Mayfield who ended the night with one of the craziest comeback wins you’ll ever see. Having been a Ram for all but 48 hours, Mayfield pulled his team all the way back from a 16-3 deficit late in the fourth quarter with two touchdown drives, the second of which went 98 yards with less than 2 minutes to play and no timeouts.
How improbable was the win? At two points, the Rams had less than a 2% chance of beating the Raiders. And not until the final touchdown did they have better than a 23.3% chance to win, according to ESPN.
Just look at the win probability chart, which showed the Raiders in complete control all game.
Well that escalated quickly… pic.twitter.com/h7zSiyPhOA
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 9, 2022
When Mayfield hit Malcolm Brown for a 3-yard gain on third-and-4 to bring up fourth down with 4:39 to play, the Rams had a 1.2% chance of winning. The next play, Cam Akers caught a 2-yard pass for the first down, then punched it into the end zone for a touchdown the following play.
When the Rams started their game-winning drive with an incomplete pass to Tutu Atwell on first down, their win probability sat at 1.6%. A couple of penalties helped them get down the field in a hurry, but just before the game-winner to Van Jefferson, the Raiders still had a 79.6% chance to win.
Their odds then sank to 2.3% after Jefferson scored, and eventually 0% when Derek Carr was picked by Taylor Rapp.
It doesn’t get much wilder than that.
