Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
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Andrew heads to Wincanton’s televised jumps meeting and Kelso for three recommended bets/trades on Saturday, November 9th (please note that Andrew’s next column will be on Monday 11th)…
KELSO 11.38
At the time of writing CHASE A FOTUNE was trading as the second favourite (around the 3-1 mark) for this 2m1f handicap chase, but he could struggle. Chris Grant’s six-year-old has a good record at Catterick but his form figures at other venues read 2452222658353F2 (0-15), including a fourth, fifth and sixth from three runs here at Kelso. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose CHASE A FORTUNE in Kelso 11.38
WINCANTON 1.09
I want to oppose two runners in this conditional jockeys’ handicap chase, the first being KILLER KANE, who always needs two or three runs at the start of the season and has yet to win outside of the February/March period. Joe Tizzard’s nine-year-old was a beaten favourite at Kempton on his recent comeback and may still need today’s run. The other I’m keen to take on is recent Southwell scorer DUKE OF LUCKLEY, despite having tipped him last time. That win came after a break and he has always seemed best when fresh. Form figures immediately following a win of PP6 (0-3) are very worrying for his backers today. The one to oppose them with is the Paul Nicholls-trained BEAU BALKO, who like most from this yard this season, needed the run when a 14-length third at Kempton on last month’s reappearance. His record right-handed stands at 151522133 (3-9) and he should encounter the required strong pace despite the small field. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Back BEAU BALKO in Wincanton 1.09
WINCANTON 2.23
HANDSTANDS heads the betting for the Grade 2 Rising Star Chase but he’s making his chase debut (the last ten winners of this race had the benefit of previous experience over fences) and he tends to be ridden patiently, tactics far from ideal for this course and distance (five of the last ten winners of this race made all, the others were ridden prominently). Dan Skelton’s BOOMBAWN is another whose patient running style could leave him at a disadvantage and the one to take them on with is Paul Nicholls’ INSURRECTION, another from the yard who will come on for last month’s comeback outing, a runner-up effort to the progressive Springwell Bay on his chase debut at Chepstow. He’ll be happier now back on a right-handed track – all his wins have come in this direction – and he rates a buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Back INSURRECTION in Wincanton 2.23
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Related
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