Rachel Reeves’s first budget offers a chance to break out of the doom loop. Here’s how she should do it

‘Simply trumpeting the amount of money spent on the NHS will not convince the public unless productivity recovers.’ Photograph: Mr Doomits/Alamy

Four years of economic turmoil. High inflation, then high interest rates, then an (albeit mild) recession. A pre-election budget with some distinctly dodgy looking tax cuts. All leaving an election-winning, but nevertheless very unpopular, government with a big fiscal hole to fill. What does the chancellor do? Put up taxes, of course.

And indeed that is precisely what Norman Lamont did in March 1993. By a lot – by most measures, it was the largest tax-raising budget in at least the previous half century. It was followed by a decade and a half of macroeconomic stability and mostly steady growth, averaging almost 3% per year, a level recent chancellors could only dream of.