Queensland likes to be different, even when we say we’re not. From daylight saving to closing up shop early during the pandemic to implementing the school curriculum our way — we want to be noticed. And that won’t be hard during a campaign where three states, headed by Queensland, will get top billing by a travelling gaggle of politicians.
An electoral redistribution, retiring MPs and a resurgent Labor Party in Western Australia will put a focus on that state and the number of marginal seats in NSW will make it a crucial state for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Anthony Albanese to traverse.
But Queensland, where the Coalition holds 23 of the 30 federal seats, will be full of surprises.
First, almost all those seats are held by the LNP with thin majorities where local issues might dominate. Labor hopes to steal four — Leichhardt, Flynn, Longman and Brisbane — but it’s not clear-cut.
In Leichhardt, Warren Entsch sits on a 4.2% margin, and his electorate, which includes Cairns, has been hit hard by the pandemic, giving the ALP a strong chance of winning. But Entsch’s personal standing might prove difficult to jump over, and Labor must do that to claim victory.
In Flynn, One Nation stole almost 20% of the primary vote last time around — and Labor is hoping a big chunk was dispirited Labor voters now ready to come back into the fold. Longman has changed hands four times in the past five elections, and might be Labor’s best early bet at this stage — but even those Labor is banking on are not yet short odds.
Second, the Greens are in a strong position and have their eyes on three crucial seats, including Griffith, which former prime minister Kevin Rudd once held. The incumbent ALP’s Terri Butler is a hard-working and effective parliamentarian, but the Greens have been making strong inroads at both a council and state level and are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
The same goes for Ryan, which used to be safely conservative but is becoming greener by the election. The party won the state seat that overlaps the area, and has it marked as one it wants to bring home federally in 2022.
So is the inner-city seat of Brisbane, which is as messy as any chocolate cake I’ve made. The Greens see it as within striking distance, but Labor’s candidate and Deloitte Australia director Madonna Jarrett has that party quietly confident. Not too many are talking up the chances of incumbent LNP Trevor Evans — at least at this stage.
Third, it’s not just the Greens. Other minor parties will play havoc. Clive Palmer started a colossal spending spree months ago and his billboards are impossible to miss. The final Senate spot will be a fierce race between the LNP’s Amanda Stoker, former Queensland LNP premier Campbell Newman and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson — but the breadth of independents and small parties will skew the debate in some of Queensland’s regional seats.
Fourth, out-of-the box results will feature. Just take this example: Bowman, on Brisbane’s bayside, where the LNP candidate will enjoy a 10.2% margin delivered by Andrew Laming last time around. But a strong ALP candidate in Donisha Duff could turn predictions on their head.
The same goes for Hinkler, now held by the Coalition’s Resources Minister Keith Pitt. Taking in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay, it might look unassailable with a margin of 14.5%. But out of the blue the town’s mayor and former state police minister Jack Dempsey has put up his hand. Dempsey is well liked and has strong name recognition in the area. He will run as an independent and he’s taking Pitt on.
Last week it looked safe. This week, when you look at how preferences could flow, it’s not. And next week it could be entirely different again. Stay tuned. The only certain thing about Queensland is that it’s a state of uncertainty.
