Queensland's current COVID-19 cases could be between 3 to 5 times higher than the official tally, a leading infectious diseases expert says, as the healthcare system struggles to cope with record hospitalisations.
Yesterday the state reported 11,687 new cases of COVID-19 as highly infectious Omicron variants wreak winter havoc across the state, 2,000 cases more than Wednesday.
The rapidly rising case numbers come as hospitalisation rates in Queensland tipped 1,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Twenty-one people are in intensive care and 1,034 people in hospital for the virus.
Ten deaths were reported on Thursday.
Mater Hospital director of infectious diseases Dr Paul Griffin said there was no indication Queensland had reached the peak of the latest COVID-19 wave, and the hospitalisation figure was an indication of the true case load.
"To get to that number of hospitalisations, it's very likely the real number of cases is many times higher than what we're hearing about right now," he told ABC Radio Brisbane.
"If people need to have something to motivate them to change what they're doing … it's really that hospitalisation figure that shows we're at breaking point in the healthcare system at the moment.
"We need some help to reduce how much transmission is going on out there."
Griffith University virologist Nigel McMillan said he "nearly fell off his chair" when he saw the spike in case numbers on Thursday, with his own modelling expecting a steadier increase to just under 10,000 cases, not 11,687.
"This is a much bigger increase than we would have expected, so something certainly has happened," he said.
"Timing-wise we know infection takes 5–7 days to come through. We had State of Origin on Wednesday, we had a rugby test match on Saturday and a soccer game on Sunday, all large events, but probably it’s a bit too soon ... what I would predict is we’re going to get many more cases based on those events as well, in the next few days."
Need for awareness campaign
Dr Griffin said he didn't believe a mask mandate would be the most helpful option, but masks should be supplied in high-risk settings such as sporting events, and there should be a campaign encouraging mask use, social distancing, and reminding people to get up-to-date with vaccinations.
"I think part of it, too, is a lot of people have the perception this is done, it's over with, there's no point even testing at the moment," he said.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Health Minister Yvette D'Ath this week said modelling had failed to predict the severity of the current Omicron wave, and could not predict its peak.
Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid today also warned doctors expected the situation in hospitals to worsen.
Dr Griffin said there was no indication Queensland was near the peak of the current wave, and it was up to the community to contribute to stopping the spread.
"How much longer it continues to climb and how high it gets is still very much up to what we do," he said.
"If we see a great response, the kind of response we're all calling for — people line up to get their vaccines, start wearing masks, staying at home if they're unwell — if we see all that then hopefully the peak isn't too far away and won't be much higher.
