Queensland electricity bills could surge 30-50 per cent and dozens of small energy retailers could go under within months unless the state government intervenes in the market, an analyst says.
Household bills in the southeast will leap by at least 10.7 per cent to $1620 in 2022/23, while business bills will surge 19.8 per cent to $3446.
Regional Queensland home power bills will jump 9.2 per cent to $1290, and business bills 10.2 per cent to a minimum of $2334.
Federal and state regulators determined the rises, with wholesale electricity prices quadrupling to $171 per megawatt hour in the year to March.
Surging coal and gas prices have lifted Queensland wholesale prices to $283 MWh - the highest level on record - this month.
Base futures prices - which retailers agree with generators in annual contracts - hit $148 MWh in the March quarter, the second highest level on record.
Professor Bruce Mountain, a Victoria University energy market expert, says if current conditions persist regulators could lift Queensland power bills another 30-50 per cent before the end 2022/23.
"They should be expecting 30 to 50 per cent increases," he told AAP on Wednesday.
"Those customers paying default rate can expect for now to have increases in line with a default rate, but I would not be surprised if there's pressure on the regulators to reset the price cap within a period of shorter than a year, which is when they said they're next going to do it."
A one-off $175 state government rebate will absorb some pressure on households, but there's no relief for businesses.
When futures contract prices hit $174 MWh in 2017, the government intervened in the market, directing state-owned generators to alter their bids, forcing down prices.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has ruled out a similar intervention this time.
"We don't work in that system, so unfortunately we are guided by what's happening around the world," she told reporters on Tuesday.
Prof Mountain said the state government still has the power to intervene to protect consumers.
"That's just rubbish, there is no law stopping them from governing," he said.
"They can govern, they can tell them what to do.
"No one can stand in their way, not the federation, not the regulators, not anyone. I don't think that's plausible."
Comment has been sought from the government.
Liberal National Party energy spokesman Pat Weir said there was evidence generators were bidding up the market and the government must intervene.
"The state government is milking excessive profits from our generators and trickling only a handful of that money back to consumers," Mr Weir told AAP.
"Queensland has the highest electricity prices in the country.
"If the state government keeps this up, they will skyrocket even higher."
Prof Mountain said the situation could kill off dozens of smaller electricity retailers in Queensland.
That would leave consumers at the mercy of the largest players in the retail market.
"These little retailers are so essential to the health of our markets and outcomes for customers," he said.
"It will be absolutely tragic - it's taken a decade for these companies to come together and marshal the resources to enter the market and bring their smarts and their nous.
"So I really worry that these extreme events we're going through is going to snuff out such a vital lifeblood of our industry."
