Queensland state election 2024: what we know so far
The LNP leader, David Crisafulli, has claimed election victory to become the 41st premier of Queensland and form a majority government.
The outgoing premier and Labor leader, Steven Miles, conceded that his party could not form majority government.
In his victory speech, Crisafulli said he hoped to achieve “generational government” and that the LNP had achieved its biggest achievement in more than a decade.
Crisafulli batted away criticism of the party’s handling of abortion – refusing to rule out a conscience vote if the KAP brings forward a private member’s bill on the matter. He told the crowd in Brisbane the “scare” campaign wouldn’t “come to fruition” because “this isn’t America, we don’t pander to extremes”.
Miles told the party faithful in his electorate of Murrumba he had “no regrets about the campaign or [his] last 10 months as premier”. He also took aim at the LNP and said: “This election finishes with many more questions about [their] plans than answers.”
As it now stands, the ABC’s Antony Green is projecting that the LNP has secured 49 seats to form a majority and Labor 30 seats. He projects that Katter’s Australian party has picked up three seats, and that One Nation and the Greens might have no representation in the next parliament.
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Labor senator says inner-city voters turning away from Greens
The Labor senator for Queensland Murray Watt has weighed in on the state election results, arguing that voters in the inner city had turned against the Greens:
Inner-city voters have turned against an arrogant and aggressive Greens party more interested in grandstanding than delivering progressive change.
An incredible campaign from Dr Barbara O’Shea and the @QLDLabor team who’ve taken it up to the Greens Party in South Brisbane. Inner city voters have turned against an arrogant and aggressive Greens Party more interested in grandstanding than delivering progressive change. pic.twitter.com/PYZ1uL4BZG
— Senator Murray Watt (@MurrayWatt) October 26, 2024
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One Nation may not be represented in next parliament, ABC says
The ABC is projecting that One Nation will not be represented in the next parliament.
The Greens might not win any seats, it projects, while Katter’s Australian party is projected to have won at least three seats.
It projects the LNP will win 49 seats and Labor 31.
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Crisafulli doesn’t say if he and Miles have spoken
The premier in waiting, David Crisafulli, has spoken to reporters as he walked off the stage in Brisbane after his victory speech.
Asked how it felt to be the first premier to actively support the North Queensland Cowboys, he says:
Now that’s an achievement!
Crisafulli is also asked if he had received a call from the Labor leader, Steven Miles, but says he doesn’t want to say.
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At the conclusion of David Crisafulli’s speech, he referenced Gough Whitlam’s Labor party campaign song of 1972 – It’s time.
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Crisafulli looking to achieve 'generational government'
Wrapping up his speech, David Crisafulli has given these final remarks:
We asked Queenslanders to choose hope over fear and they did. We asked Queenslanders to vote for a fresh start and they did. And now, tomorrow we get to work … We do what we say we were going to do, we don’t do what we say we wouldn’t do, and we have a contract with Queenslanders and we intend to honour it.
And, finally, to the future. We haven’t won back-to-back elections in this state since 1986, and you need to understand how important it is if you believe in the values of your political movement and the people of your state, it has to be about generational government.
So we govern with humility and decency and vision and tenacity and, in doing so, we get the opportunity to govern for a longer period of time. And if we get that opportunity we can do great things for our party, for our kids, for our state.
To borrow a phrase from a different era and a different political movement, it’s time – it’s time. It’s time for a fresh start for Queensland.
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David Crisafulli thanks the people of Broadwater for their endorsement, and says “nobody can do this job without being a local member and I’m really grateful for the opportunity as well”.
He also thanks his family, stating that he and his wife have done a lot to shield their daughters from the spotlight.
Crisafulli says that next week he will be appointed premier but is “not even the best parent in my house”, thanking his wife, Tegan, for all of her support.
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David Crisafulli is now moving on to the thank yous, first to the people of Queensland for “backing us”. He also thanks his team, and the party’s three former leaders.
He has a message for the party’s newly elected members:
To the newly elected team members, spread throughout the state, we really look forward to welcoming you to the parliament and I know your communities will embrace the opportunity for a fresh face, as part of a fresh government.
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David Crisafulli notes that many people voted for the LNP for the first time today and says he wants to create a state where “we have a great tolerance [and] where we are a compassionate society”.
I am mindful that many of those public servants and, indeed, other Queenslanders may have not voted for us tonight, they were distracted by a scare campaign. To that I say, the good news for us as a political movement and a state is that scare campaign won’t be able to be run in four years’ time.
When all of those allegations and when all of the scare, all of the fear, doesn’t come to fruition, well, then we can look to deliver a second-term LNP government. Because, friends, this isn’t America. We don’t pander to extremes.
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On the housing crisis, David Crisafulli says the LNP will remove the tax to open home ownership for young Queenslanders, stating:
History will show this is a turning point to make sure that government does all it can to lower those structural cost-of-living challenges and to make sure that working Queenslanders can keep the lights on, make sure that working Queenslanders can afford to dream, to make better for their children, and we are determined to make sure that we have respect for your money, and that means a culture of budget blowouts will end.
Crisafulli says his vision for Queensland centres on building “generational infrastructure to open up opportunities” and “where this state returns to the economic powerhouse of the country”.
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David Crisafulli is also speaking on the LNP’s plan for health, stating that “ambulance ramping will not remain the highest in the country, at 45%”.
And you will know that because within 100 days, you will see what’s happening in your hospital in real time, and you will have doctors and nurses back in charge of those hospitals.
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Crisafulli celebrates 'biggest LNP achievement in over a decade'
David Crisafulli says the LNP is “determined to make sure that this state returns to the powerhouse we all know it can be”.
Of the last 12 general elections in this state, we have only won one on election night, and tonight we get to celebrate the biggest achievement we have had in over a decade.
But that is not what is important about elections. Elections are about people, and it’s about doing good for those who don’t have a voice, and what history will show is that tonight was the turning corner of the youth crime crisis. And it will be the turning corner to mean that there are fewer victims in this state and, by Christmas, adult crime, adult time will be law.
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David Crisafulli begins by acknowledging the outgoing premier Steven Miles, and says:
I want to start by thanking premier [Miles] for his service as deputy premier of this state and, indeed, as the premier. And to think that the son of a factory worker could be the 40th premier of his state, that tells you everything you need to know about how great Queensland is. And I want to thank Steven and his wife, Kim, for their service to Queensland.
He also acknowledged those who had lost their seats tonight.
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Incoming premier David Crisafulli says Queenslanders voted for majority LNP government
The LNP leader, David Crisafulli, has made his way through a cheering crowd of party faithful, addressing them as the LNP is set to form majority government.
He says that tonight, Queenslanders had “voted for a majority LNP government”.
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At the LNP election campaign party, the LNP president, Lawrence Springborg, has arrived with the state director, Ben Riley, and told the gathered press:
I don’t think you’ll have to wait too much longer.
The LNP faithful have started a chant in the main room, but it’s difficult to make out from the hallway.
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Greens may have no seats left in Queensland, Antony Green says
The ABC election analyst Antony Green says it is possible the Greens will have no seats in Queensland after today’s election.
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Expectation growing for appearance by LNP deputy leader Jarrod Bleijie
Expectation is building at the LNP election night event for the arrival of the deputy leader, Jarrod Bleijie.
He’s expected to be the first tonight to make a speech.
Later, the boss, David Crisafulli, will arrive to make his speech – likely to claim victory.
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Cameron Dick defends Miles’s election night speech
Cameron Dick has been speaking on the ABC about whether Labor has officially conceded defeat in the election.
Dick defers to Steven Miles and says it is up to the party leader to do so.
Asked if Miles made an error of judgment tonight with his speech, Dick says he had not – and that he was speaking from the heart and said what he thought was “appropriate for the circumstances”.
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Crisafulli due to address LNP election party
The LNP leader, David Crisafulli, who is expected to become Queensland’s next premier, is due to speak shortly at the W hotel in Brisbane, where party faithful have been gathering.
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LNP has secured 47 seats – enough to form a majority, ABC projects
The ABC is now projecting the LNP has secured 47 seats – enough to form a majority government.
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Here are some photos from the LNP campaign room in Brisbane, as the results filter through:
LNP one seat away from majority, according to ABC projections
The ABC is now projecting 46 seats for the LNP – one away from a majority.
It is projecting 32 for Labor, one for the Greens, three for Katter’s Australian party and one for a minor party/independent.
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Former premier Borbidge says LNP ‘nearly there’
The Courier Mail is reporting that the former premier Rob Borbidge says the LNP’s results tonight should not be underestimated:
Winning 14 [extra] seats in a 93-seat parliament was always going to be a challenge, and it looks like we’re nearly there … I think the law and order issue at the end of the day was a gamechanger and a vote changer for people, because it affects people, and if people have been hurt in that manner, they want it fixed and they want something done.
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Cameron Dick says it’s still unclear if LNP can form a majority
The deputy Labor leader, Cameron Dick, is speaking on the ABC following Steven Miles’ speech and has provided his interpretation:
I think it is unclear whether the LNP can form a majority and given what David Crisafulli has said about not forming a minority government, I think quite fairly Steven’s saying we want to know there is 47 in the bag for the LNP, that there’s a majority, and if he’s not going to form a minority government we continue on … He is saying what everyone in the Labor party thinks tonight after everyone thought we were going to be absolutely smashed to rubble …
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Steven Miles says that “whatever the final number of seats, I will keep doing what matters for Queensland”.
Wrapping up his speech amid loud cheers of support from party faithful, the outgoing Labor premier says:
I will never stop fighting for our Labor agenda. And I will never stop holding the LNP to account. Thank you all so much for your support.
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Election finishes with 'more questions than answers' about LNP's plans: Miles
Steven Miles is now taking aim at the incoming LNP premier, David Crisafulli, saying:
David Crisafulli ducked and weaved and tied himself into the tiniest small target Queensland has ever seen. Never before has a party taken to an election with so little detail of their agenda. This election finishes with many more questions about the LNP’s plans than answers.
Will he give back billions of dollars to multinational coal companies? Will he savage the public service – doctors and nurses, ambos, teachers, firies – just like he did with Campbell Newman last time to pay for his promises?
Will he have a conscience vote on the Katter’s abortion bill and allow that right to be stripped from Queenslanders?
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Addressing the cheering crowd, Steven Miles says he is proud of the progressive policy agenda he put forward:
I said at the beginning of this that I wasn’t going to die wondering, and I stand by that tonight … The biggest cost-of-living relief package of any state ever, paid for by billionaire multinational coal companies; $1,000 off every Queenslander’s energy bill …
He mentions the satellite hospitals, free children’s lunches and more, stating good leaders “don’t just help with now, they have a plan for the future”.
This election I sought a mandate in my own right to do the big structural changes that will benefit Queenslanders for generations.
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Steven Miles thanks his deputy, Cameron Dick, saying he “know[s] a thing or two about being a deputy premier and Cameron has been a good one”.
He also thanks the Queensland trade union movement for “everything you have done to support our campaign”, and “most of all” he thanks his family.
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Steven Miles congratulates those who won their seats, and for the volunteers who supported the campaign.
He thanks Labor’s state secretary, Katie Flanders, for an “exceptional campaign, bringing people together from all different backgrounds and turning them into a united, thriving team”.
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No regrets about campaign, Miles says
Steven Miles says more will be known as counting continues in the coming days, with many seats too close to call.
He says it is an “extraordinary result” given what the party was up against:
It was always going to be a challenging election for Labor but I have no regrets about the campaign or indeed the last 10 months as premier.
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Steven Miles concedes he won't form majority
Addressing the party faithful in Murrumba, the Labor leader, Steven Miles, has conceded he won’t form a majority government.
As he took the stage with his family, there were loud cheers throughout the room. He told those gathered that he gave the election everything he had:
Being Queensland’s premier for 10 months has been the greatest honour of my life. For that kid from Petrie it is more than I could ever have dreamed of.
Watching the results tonight it is clear that that hasn’t been enough to secure a majority of seats for Labor, and also that the LNP is unlikely to have a majority.
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Steven Miles arrives at Labor HQ
The Labor leader and premier, Steven Miles, has arrived at the campaign party in Murrumba Downs Tavern in his electorate, where he is expected to speak in a moment.
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Cameron Dick says it would be “very, very difficult for [Labor] to form government”, but pointed to David Crisafulli’s comments that he wouldn’t lead a minority government.
Because of that, does he think Steven Miles won’t necessarily concede?
Dick tells the ABC:
I don’t know. Let’s see what he has to say and we need to give him that opportunity.
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Palaszczuk says it is a matter for Miles if he wishes to run for opposition leader
The former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says it is “a matter for [Steven Miles]” if he wants to run for opposition leader. As the Courier Mail reports, she said:
Let’s wait and see. He’ll give that some thought, but the result tonight is a credit to him. The whole team, party office, Kate Flanders also did a great campaign with their social media team and all the candidates.
There’s a lot of candidates and members who have lost their seats. So when you put yourself forward for public office, you want to do a community service, but also to spend time away from your family, and I just commend everyone who’s been out there working on the campaign, on all sides of politics.
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LNP top brass begin to arrive at election night party
LNP top brass have started to arrive at their party celebration this evening.
The Brisbane lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, has entered the building, but has yet to speak on camera. The manager of opposition business, Andrew Powell, spoke to Nine a few minutes ago, and said:
All I can say is that in Glasshouse I’m the most popular MP since 2013 and that’s saying something.
Powell said “we always knew there was going to be three counts” – on the day, pre-poll and postals.
The veteran MP was not ready to call an outcome yet, and said:
What this is showing is what we’ve always said which is if we won, it would be close.
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Steven Miles preparing to give speech he 'never wanted to give', deputy Labor leader says
The deputy Labor leader, Cameron Dick, speaking on the ABC, says he has had a “brief exchange” with Steven Miles ahead of his expected concession speech in the next 10 minutes.
Dick says this is “a speech Steven would never have wanted to give”.
But that is the nature of politics and we have to respect ultimately this incredible democracy that we have in Queensland, and what it has given our state for 160 years … Respecting the people’s choice today is just so important …
If we can hold 35 seats, I just think it is a testament to the strength and the resilience of our members.
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Steven Miles to address Labor faithful in next 10 minutes
The Labor leader, Steven Miles, is expected to address party faithful at the Murrumba Downs Tavern in his electorate within the next 10 minutes, amid projections the LNP will form government and win the election.
We’ll bring you the latest as soon as he begins speaking.
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The Courier Mail reports that KAP’s Robbie Katter has done “no deal”, when asked if he favours Steven Miles or David Crisafulli. He told Nine:
It’s about who is going to back north Queensland, it’s pretty simple. We go to whichever side will turn around these policies that have destroyed industries up here and who will invest in infrastructure in north Queensland.
Labor has done such a bad job running this state for so long. But David Crisafulli has done himself a disservice in the way he has conducted himself in the past week-and-a-half.
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The election analyst Kevin Bonham writes that the LNP would be “very unlucky not to get a majority from here”.
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Cameron Dick says Labor can be credible opposition with 35 seats
The ABC is projecting the LNP will form government and David Crisafulli will become the 41st premier of Queensland.
Labor’s Cameron Dick is asked if the party can be a credible opposition with 35 seats, and responds:
We showed that we could be credible opposition with seven and destroy Campbell Newman with seven, so we have five times [as many] … I think we’ll see a replay of that film. David Crisafulli has no answers on abortion, their energy plan has been absolutely shredded during the campaign … they’ve got no answers on debt.
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Bancroft MP predicts ‘surprises will keep coming’ with postal votes
If you were going by polls that consistently predicted a Labor wipeout for months – until suddenly they didn’t – tonight’s results have been full of surprises.
But newly re-elected Labor MP in the northern Brisbane seat of Bancroft, Chris Whiting, is predicting “a couple more surprises” over the next few days as postal votes flip seats both sides might go to bed tonight thinking they hold.
“The surprises are going to keep coming,” he said from the Murrumba Downs Tavern.
Still, Whiting was under no illusion about the fact Labor would lose its majority.
Cameron Dick himself said he would be surprised if we won. And there was never any doubt about the task we had ahead.
Re-elected Bancroft MP Chris Whiting is predicting the “surprises will keep coming” over the next few days as postal votes flip seats both sides thought “fell the other way”.
— Joe Hinchliffe (@joe_hinchliffe) October 26, 2024
Does he think there will be a result tonight:
“No”.#QLDelection pic.twitter.com/KLyxBdYqcZ
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Cheers at LNP party as Sky News calls election for LNP
There have been huge cheers at the LNP party this evening as Sky News called the election for the opposition.
“DC, DC, DC, DC,” young members of the party cheered at a huge television screen.
The party has been relatively sedate this evening with no locked in win to celebrate. But as pre-poll numbers came in, several seats have begun to firm up.
A number of LNP hard heads have told the Guardian they’re predicting a narrow majority.
The crowd quickly turned to boos when Bob Katter appeared on the TV.
The final result – whether majority or minority – is yet to be determined and several seats will come down to the wire.
LNP MP says mere mention of abortion in parliament won’t necessarily mean conscience vote
Circling back to LNP MP John-Paul Langbroek’s interview on Sky News earlier.
As the Brisbane Times reports, he was questioned on whether MPs would be granted a conscience vote on abortion if it comes before parliament, and responded:
Just mentioning the word abortion in the parliament doesn’t necessarily mean it always has to be a conscience vote.
I mean, my sense was that if you’re talking about saying, we’re going to talk about recriminalising it, that sort of debate would be one where you would say, that’s not actually about the issue itself.
That’s not a life and death issue, and we’re prepared to say we’re not going to recriminalise it, therefore that’s not a life and death matter, and it won’t be a conscience vote.
That’s just my personal view, having watched it over the last couple of weeks.
ABC projecting LNP will form government
The ABC’s Antony Green is projecting that the Liberal National party will form government in Queensland.
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Labor Townsville MP says LNP push on youth justice cost him his seat
The Labor MP for Townsville, Scott Stewart, has conceded defeat in the election, with the LNP’s Adam Baillie set to win the seat.
Stewart spoke to the ABC and said he had come in second place, thanking the people of Townsville for their support over the past 10 years.
Asked why voters have turned away from Labor, he responded:
It is clear in Townsville, this has always been fought around that youth justice issue and while we have had a number of great policies and the funding that goes behind it, this has been the key issue and people said to me they want it stopped and they want to give someone else a go …
This has been a key issue fought on, and we know that the LNP have certainly hedged their bets on this one issue.
Stewart said issues of youth justice couldn’t have a “silver bullet approach” when asked if Labor acted too slowly:
Not one thing is going to fix this complex issue that has been building for decades and generations.
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LNP MP says questions on abortion could have been handled better by party leader
Sky News is reporting that the LNP’s John-Paul Langbroek has conceded questions on abortion could have been handled better by David Crisafulli.
Speaking to Sky, Langbroek said he had “no doubt” the issue had cost votes:
There’s just no doubt about the fact that it took a while to get a definitive answer about the issue … We must have thought that we didn’t think this was going to be an issue that was resonating and then through relentless Labor campaigning and a lot of social media I think it obviously did.
Labor’s Crawford says he’s still in the running in Barron River
The Labor MP Craig Crawford has told party members he is in the running to retain his seat of Barron River, according to the ABC:
[Scrutineers] are reporting that we are holding on to Barron River so it’s going to be tight … you don’t get the government without my seat.
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Election analysis from Ben Raue
The election analyst Ben Raue, from the Tally Room, says that among the 12 Labor seats on margins of 7% to 12%, Labor is leading in every seat.
The ABC has called Maryborough for Labor. Raue thinks Labor is also “well ahead” in Cooper, Ferny Grove, Murrumba and Bulimba, writing:
They’re leading by a decent lead but not quite as big in five others. Only in two of these seats is it very close – Capalaba and Rockhampton.
Things are much messier in the seats under a 7% margin, but Labor is still leading in many seats. Labor is leading in 10 of these 18 seats, the LNP is leading in eight.
So on those numbers, right now Labor has regained Ipswich West and South Brisbane, and is trailing in eight others. That would be a net loss of six, which would leave them on 45 seats. There are 11 others where the ALP lead is quite narrow. If they lost all of those seats, that would give the LNP a majority.
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Labor MP Brittany Lauga concedes defeat
The Courier Mail is reporting that the Labor MP for Keppel, Brittany Lauga, has conceded defeat, telling supporters:
I feel your heart breaking, because my heart has broken too. We have worked so hard for our community.
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Photos from Labor’s Murrumba Downs Tavern campaign party
Here are some more photos rolling in from Labor’s campaign party at the Murrumba Downs Tavern, in the Murrumba electorate of the premier, Steven Miles:
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Antony Green says there is a 5.6% swing to the LNP at the moment, with a 5.7% swing needed for a majority.
It is still looking like the LNP will win more seats, but it is not clear if it will get to majority, and there’s a lot more counting to come.
Antony Green says LNP could still form a majority
The ABC election analyst, Antony Green, says that the LNP could still win a majority.
Just earlier, he said:
I think they can reach majority, but it isn’t there yet. At this stage, I would say they have a better chance of finishing with more seats than Labor. So that is what the picture may be by the end of the evening.
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Mood remains high in Murrumba despite projections Labor has lost majority
The ABC psephologist Antony Green may have declared Queensland Labor has officially lost its majority – but that hasn’t dampened the mood at Murrumba Downs Tavern where party faithful are awaiting the local MP and current premier, Steven Miles.
“Take that Bianca!” yells a voice from the crowd as the Gold Coast seat of Gaven is called for rising Labor star Meaghan Scanlon, who fended off a swing from the former Sunrise TV reporter Bianca Stone.
“Yeah Bart!” yells another, as the count in the Brisbane seat of Aspley shows the transport minister, Bart Mellish, ahead with 36.8% of the vote counted there.
“It feels good,” the Australia Post courier and Transport Workers Union member Bradley Begozzi says.
It feels better than the polls said it would be.
His wife, Robyn, who cares for their three children – their youngest non-verbal – says the family has really been feeling the cost-of-living crunch and has benefited from Labor’s $1,000 energy rebate and stands to benefit from its free school lunch policy should they scrape into a minority government.
Bradley says:
Cost of living has been the biggest issue of the campaign. And Steven has been really strong on that.
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Stoker breaks ranks on party's nuclear position hours after polls close
The LNP’s star candidate, Amanda Stoker, has said the party “should look at” nuclear power, in a stunning interview that breaks ranks with the party’s position just hours after the polls have closed.
The issue of nuclear power has split the state and federal LNP. Peter Dutton is pushing for it federally. David Crisafulli has ruled it out, and has said “it’s not part of our plan”.
Just as with abortion, throughout the campaign LNP candidates have been steadfast in sticking to the party line.
Stoker is a former federal senator who has previously been supportive of nuclear. She’s kept her head down during the campaign.
Interviewed on ABC, the likely new member for Oodgeroo, Stoker began by saying it was not part of the plan, but eventually broke ranks:
I have always been open-minded to whatever the science takes us to see. Now, lots of other countries use nuclear, Australia doesn’t. If it became a part of the federal scene we should look at it. But we have a commitment as a team that it isn’t in the plan.
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LNP’s Stoker asked if she would like to see changes to abortion laws
Amanda Stoker, the LNP candidate for Oodgeroo, is expected to win the seat.
She is speaking with the ABC, and is asked if she would like to see changes to the laws in Queensland regarding abortion:
The LNP’s position on this has been clear – it is not going to change. I am disappointed that Labor were able to frighten so many people across Queensland into a position that really doesn’t reflect the pain points for people day to day in our community.
As we’re reported previously, David Crisafulli has claimed the laws will not change – but he cannot rule this out if he cannot rule out a conscience vote.
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Shadow treasurer questioned on LNP view of federal opposition nuclear plan
Sticking with energy policy for a moment and the shadow treasurer, David Janetzki, was just questioned on the federal opposition’s nuclear plans.
Asked if the LNP position is still no nuclear power in Queensland, he responds:
Our position has been that it is a decision for Canberra, it is not for us, it’s not part of our plan … We’re not looking at it, it is one for our federal colleagues.
David Crisafulli has previously said he would oppose Peter Dutton’s plan for two nuclear plants in Queensland if elected.
Janetzki is asked what he would do if Dutton wins and wants to roll out nuclear in Queensland, and says:
That is hypothetical, heaped on hypothetical … We have said all the way through it is not part of our plan and that remains the case.
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Watt says federal Labor can learn from ‘strong, bold agenda’ in Queensland
The federal Labor minister Murray Watt has told Sky News that one key takeaway from the Queensland election is the benefit of a “strong, bold agenda”.
According to the Brisbane Times, Watt told the program:
I think we’ll obviously have a good look at the Queensland election result here to see the lessons that can be gained.
He also said if David Crisafulli and the LNP win, there will be “a massive conflict between federal and the state LNP”.
I think Peter Dutton needs to learn that there is a price to be paid by not giving people straight answers in the way that he’s continuing to refuse talking to people about the cost of nuclear power and a range of other issues there.
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Early figures could change substantially once pre-polling counted
It’s important to keep in mind that the early figures we’re seeing tonight could change substantially when pre-poll votes are counted.
That doesn’t mean that they will. But while there’s a lot we already know tonight, there’s even more we don’t.
At the start of October, polls showed the LNP on course for a landslide win. By election day things got much tighter. Tonight they are tighter still. Labor’s primary vote – which is up over 34% – is higher than any poll has predicted for the past few years.
We absolutely expect that early voting likely favoured the LNP. The logic is that these voters were eager to chuck the government out, and had made their minds up.
LNP folks are saying “wait for the pre-polls” before writing off the party’s chances of winning a majority tonight.
Shadow treasurer reiterates Crisafulli comments there will be ‘no deals’
The shadow treasurer, David Janetzki, is asked about the LNP position if there is a hung parliament. He says “no deals, we want to get through the count”.
As Ben Smee noted earlier, the opposition leader, David Crisafulli, said “categorically” yesterday he would not form a minority government if his party polled fewer than the 47 seats needed to win.
Janetzki told the ABC just a moment ago there is “so much counting left to go”:
I’m still really hopeful … I’m not going to get into any hypotheticals … No deal …
But if Robbie Katter says we will back you on supply and confidence, that isn’t a deal, that’s just a handshake? But Janetzki repeats: “No deals.”
We are a long way from having any of those considerations, none of it, because there’s going to be no deals … I want to see majority Liberal National government first.
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Antony Green predicts Labor has lost majority
The ABC election analyst, Antony Green, is predicting Labor has lost its majority. Here is where the ABC’s projections currently stand:
LNP: 37 seats
Labor: 32 seats
Katter’s Australian party: 2 seats
Greens: 1
Other (minor party/independent): 1
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Earlier, the federal sports minister, Anika Wells, said she still thinks a Labor win is “optimistic”.
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Here’s a look at the mood inside Labor’s campaign party at Murrumba Downs Tavern:
Buzz staring to build in Murrumba Downs Tavern.
— Joe Hinchliffe (@joe_hinchliffe) October 26, 2024
“It’s still early days,” one punter says.
“But this is a good place to be!” pic.twitter.com/Th1GucFb17
Swan says Labor has picked up under-40s vote from the Greens
Speaking to the ABC, Wayne Swan is asked if he is concerned by the biggest swings against Labor occurring in outer suburbs – and what might happen nationally?
He says the next federal election will be “won in many of those outer suburbs and regional areas”.
But Labor’s got room to make tremendous gains in Queensland in the next federal campaign, and what the results of tonight show is that it is indeed possible – if we get the right infrastructure and the right policy mix in place and talk about it effectively.
The spectacular success of this campaign has been the strength for Labor of the under-40s vote, and to some extent they have taken that away from the Greens as well tonight.
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Swan says swing to Labor shows ‘rejection of Trump, anti-abortion segment of LNP’
Wayne Swan, the federal president of the Labor party, is speaking to ABC TV from the party’s campaign party at Murrumba Downs Tavern.
(We had more from Swan earlier in the blog, here.)
As the two-hour mark approaches, Swan is asked if there is a prospect of Labor holding up tonight? He says “there may be”, and that this has been the “most exciting and one of the most effective campaigns seen in Queensland since the 1989 campaign that knocked the National party out”.
Whether they get the numbers tonight we may not know, but what we do know is that the swing to Labor during the last month or two has been strong and has been on the back of the cost-of-living initiatives that the government has put in place.
And I think it also shows rejection of the conservative style, Trump/Republican anti-abortion segment of the LNP in Queensland.
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Optimism abounds in Murrumba – far from the downer many were expecting
“Bundy, we’ve held Bundy!” yells an excitable voice in the Murrumba Downs Tavern.
Too excitable, as it turns out – as of 7.35pm only 18.1% of the vote in the ultra-marginal Labor-held seat had been counted, with the incumbent, Tom Smith, only narrowly ahead on 50.7%.
It’s way too early to call, the 17-year-old North Lakes volunteer Isa Bowen soon realises. Still, they are starting to get hyped:
The odds were really against us in so many areas, so seeing Bundy so close … I’m hoping this means we can retain a lot of the key seats and people we will need to be an effective opposition.
I put in a lot of calls to Bundy.
And the buzz is starting to build. “It’s early days,” another punter says, “but this is a good place to be.”
A roar goes up with early counts showing a big swing to Labor in the Greens-held seat of South Brisbane.
Whatever happens, Murrumba Downs is far from the downer many were expecting not so long ago.
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Labor holding ground in 'Palaszczuk pensioners' seats
Labor appears to be largely holding its ground – at least in terms of the election night figures – in the “Palaszczuk pensioners” seats that helped the party win a majority at the 2020 Covid election.
The caveat for these places, like the rest of the state, is that large numbers of people voted early, and the polls seemed to tighten late – so numbers on the night are very much subject to change.
But in Bundaberg, Nicklin, Redcliffe, Caloundra and Pumicestone, the two-party preferred numbers are not showing big swings to the LNP. We had even expected there would be a natural realignment in these places, even before the statewide swing comes into play.
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Reminder that Crisafulli ‘categorically’ ruled out forming minority government
An important reminder at this point, as the early results show a complicated count and the potential for a hung parliament.
The opposition leader, David Crisafulli, said “categorically” yesterday he would not form a minority government if his party polled fewer than the 47 seats needed to win.
Of course, it’s a time-honoured tradition for political leaders to say things like “no deals” in order to encourage voters to hand them the keys without the complication of having to negotiate with a crossbench.
But Crisafulli’s comments on the matter were more strident than usual. He may be beginning to worry they’ll come back to bite him.
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Deputy premier says Greens ‘overpromised and underdelivered’ to Labor’s benefit
Back on the ABC’s election panel, the deputy premier, Cameron Dick, is asked if he is shocked by the results so far, and responds:
By this time of the broadcast I thought we were going to be in deep trouble and that we would all be preparing a particular speech to give – and that is not the case.
And I think the LNP will be alarmed by Ipswich West, because it goes to one of the most important issues in the campaign, which is the more people saw [opposition leader] David Crisafulli, the less they liked him …
Has the premier, Steven Miles, written two speeches? Dick says he doesn’t know, but “we are all waiting to see what happens”.
On the Greens, in a seat like Cooper, we are seeing basically a direct transfer, almost, from the Greens to Labor. And on the two-party preferred … the Greens [are] down six, Labor up six. I think the Greens have overpromised and underdelivered and I think we may be the beneficiary of that.
Dick also says the Legalise Cannabis party was polling very strongly and “I think that could be a really significant factor”.
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Early results show statewide swing to the LNP
The story of the election so far is a statewide swing to the LNP and some places in regional Queensland where Labor has clearly lost – three seats in Townsville, Keppel, Mackay and Rockhampton.
Earlier, the deputy premier, Cameron Dick, said “it would be a surprise for Queensland Labor to win the election”. But there are also quite a few bright spots for Labor.
The party is in the contest in Bundaberg, which was the state’s most marginal seat, and leading in Gaven, where the highly regarded housing minister, Meaghan Scanlon, is defending her seat on the Gold Coast.
Labor could pick up Ipswich West from the LNP and might even – unexpectedly – win back South Brisbane from the Greens.
And while there had been some predictions the Greens could even pick up seats, the early results seem to show Labor holding firm in the seats being targeted by the minor party: Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller.
As the ABC’s Antony Green has said: “It looks like it’s going to be a long night.”
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Shadow youth justice minister set to retain seat and remains committed to ‘adult crime, adult time’
The ABC says that Laura Gerber, the LNP MP for Currumbin, will easily retain her seat.
Gerber, who is the shadow youth justice minister, spoke to the broadcaster and said the party remains committed to “adult time for adult crime”.
Asked about criticism from those who say imposing longer sentences and placing children in an already struggling detention system would not reduce offending, the MP said “not everyone is going to agree with everything that we put forward”.
… We are doing detention with a purpose, we’re doing circuit breaker sentencing, giving judges other options aside from either putting kids back into our community – which is what invariably happens – or putting them into detention, they can send them to circuit breaker sentencing for rehabilitation and to work with their families.
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Wayne Swan among crowd waiting for Steven Miles in Brisbane's north
Nestled between a service station and a Maccas on a six-lane road off the Bruce Highway in Brisbane’s outer north, Labor faithful are awaiting the arrival of – for now at least – the Queensland premier, Steven Miles.
Among the sea of red is the party’s national president and former federal treasurer Wayne Swan, who spent the day at several booths in Stafford, an electorate held by the party on a margin of 11.9%.
He says it was “really quiet”.
If you were expecting big throngs of people with baseball bats, well, there was none of that. It didn’t have the feel of a huge change-of-government election.
But Swan concedes the party has a “big mountain to climb to win a fourth term”.
We’ve been underdogs, and we remain underdogs.
Regardless of the result, the party heavyweight says Queensland Labor had “run a really strong, values-based campaign” and “exposed the small target” of opposition leader, David Crisafulli, and the LNP.
Particularly their US-style culture war position on abortion.
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The ABC has now projected 19 seats for the LNP, nine for Labor, two for Katter’s Australian party, one for the Greens and one for a minor party/independent.
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5.3% swing to LNP on early polling: Antony Green
Antony Green, the ABC’s election analyst, says there is a 5.3% swing to the LNP on early polling. It needs 5.7% to change government.
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LNP feeling increasingly comfortable amid early results
Really, really early results still, but feedback from across the board is the LNP is feeling increasingly comfortable.
Take, for example, Chermside West, which is the only booth to report back in the bellwether seat of Aspley.
The LNP wants to win it. Labor thought it might have a chance, particularly given the impact of the abortion debate and 50c public transport fares.
In Chermside West the Labor vote is down 10%; the LNP is up 9%.
It’s a big seat, and a big state. But the little flecks so far are mostly good news for the LNP in search of a majority.
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The ABC has already begun calling a number of seats, so far projecting seven for the LNP and one for Labor (Ferny Grove).
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Early Rockhampton numbers are 10% swing on primaries
Rockhampton is one of the few seats where we’ve got results from election day booths.
Labor has held the seat for almost 100 years, but is looking shaky. Early numbers are a 10% swing on primaries.
The big question is who will capitalise. The independent Margaret Strelow (a former Labor member, and a former mayor) and the LNP are both still in that contest. They’ve directed preferences to each other.
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Katter asked about plans in case of minority government
Robbie Katter is also asked about the possibility of a minority government, and whether the KAP would only do a deal with the LNP.
He responds that “you would be a fool as a minor party, saying we will only deal with one side”.
If you say you will never do a deal with one side, you have nothing to negotiate, you have no leverage, and you can’t go to the people in government and say, ‘we want X, Y, Z, a new dam or upgrades or whatever it is’ – you can’t demand that if you have already picked a side before getting to the dealing table …
It is whoever will come along with north Queensland and pick us, not who we would pick.
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Katter clarifies plans for private member’s bill on abortion
Robbie Katter is speaking on ABC TV, and is asked whether he is confident of increasing his presence in parliament. He responds:
All I can say is I hope so … It is very difficult as a minor party, particularly when you occupy seats full of troubles that you are pretty bogged down in consistent work, rather than being in the media all the time and trying to promote your party.
He is asked to clarify what legislation he would introduce, regarding a private member’s bill on abortion. Katter says he would put bring back the Babies Born Alive bill and beyond that was “willing to test something in parliament”.
And there are so many combinations … of what could be done, whether it is repeals, amendments, new bills … It wasn’t a priority for me to pin down because I didn’t go to the election with this as an issue, but the propositions were put to me.
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LNP MP says party up against challenge ‘taller than Everest’
The shadow minister David Janetzki was also up on ABC TV, and said the LNP was facing a challenge “taller than Everest”.
Looking back over the last 30 to 35 years in Queensland political history, we have won once on the night since 1986 … That tells you the Everest we are climbing, perhaps even taller than Everest, but that is what we’re up against.
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It would be a 'surprise' for Labor to win election, deputy premier says
The deputy premier, Cameron Dick, has said it would be a “surprise” for Queensland Labor to win the election. Speaking on an ABC TV election night panel, he said:
As difficult as it is for me to say, I think it would be a surprise for Queensland Labor to win the election. That is my belief. But Queensland politics is very volatile and unpredictable and anything is possible, but I do think it is a challenge for us to get over the line tonight.
Dick said that from where Labor was to where it is now, it has been “an enormous improvement for us”.
We were facing an absolute wipeout last year … I think the observations are right that we won the campaign, and so it has tightened up enormously. But I think it is going to be difficult.
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Party supporters gather for election night
The major parties will gather with their candidates and supporters tonight to watch the results of the election roll in.
David Crisafulli and the LNP will be at the W hotel in Brisbane.
The premier, Steven Miles, is at a venue in his electorate of Murrumba.
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Miles and Crisafulli thank supporters and volunteers as polls close
The premier, Steven Miles, and opposition leader, David Crisafulli, have both issued thanks to their supporters and volunteers as the polls officially closed.
Miles shared a photo to X from his final stop on the campaign trail, Mango Hill, and wrote:
Huge thank you to everyone who has voted for me to keep doing what matters for Queensland.
Last stop: Mango Hill with Sam and some of our amazing volunteers.
— Steven Miles (@StevenJMiles) October 26, 2024
Huge thank you to everyone who has voted for me to keep doing what matters for Queensland. pic.twitter.com/2u5dwq6aAF
Crisafulli thanked “every one” of the LNP volunteers for “all your efforts to deliver a Fresh Start for Queensland”.
Thank you to every one of our incredible @LNPQLD volunteers for all your efforts to deliver a Fresh Start for Queensland. 💙💛 pic.twitter.com/WL9WP7ZgJM
— David Crisafulli (@DavidCrisafulli) October 26, 2024
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Katter weighing up legal action over election signage 'lies'
Katter’s Australian party is weighing up taking legal action over election signage “lies” displayed at their electorates today.
The signs, reading “They’ve done a deal. Don’t risk it”, accused the party of being in bed with Labor. They were reportedly displayed at every polling booth in every electorate contested by the party.
Robbie Katter has said:
Lies and mudslinging are the refuge of the intellectually bankrupt – it’s what you do when you have nothing else left.
While the KAP are promoting positive policy changes, solutions to crime, nation-building infrastructure, or desperately needed road improvements, the Brisbane-based opposition have demonstrated that they are more intent to drag others down, rather than present a real reason to vote for them.
If this is the way they intend on governing the state, it’s a really poor sign – and to think that the opposition leader himself was asking voters to vote for hope and not fear – well there’s no hope in their message for north Queensland.
The KAP says it asked the Electoral Commission of Queensland to order the signs be taken down, but the request was refused.
The party is now holding talks with lawyers – but with polls closed, the damage, if any, is done.
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Counting under way
Preliminary counting has now commenced, after polls closed just minutes ago.
The electoral commissioner, Pat Vidgen, says the Electoral Commission of Queensland has now begun counting millions of votes:
Queenslanders have had their say, choosing a variety of ways to vote including almost 1 million voting on election day and almost 2 million people voting early, by postal vote or other methods.
The final voter turnout will be determined after the postal vote return deadline on 5 November, and when the scrutiny of declaration votes is completed.
Vidgen says:
Votes are counted by hand by election staff in the presence of scrutineers. There are millions of ballot papers to count, and they are all counted more than once, to ensure accuracy of the results.
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Polls close and counting is under way
It’s hit 6pm in Queensland, meaning voting in the state election has officially ended.
Counting will now begin, with “the unofficial preliminary count and the indicative count” tonight and the official count beginning tomorrow morning, the Electoral Commission of Queensland says.
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More from the seat of McConnel
The member for McConnel, Labor MP Grace Grace, holds the seat on an 11% margin, and has held the seat for all but two years since 2007. But as AAP reports, this is a situation the Greens candidate, Holstein Wong, has been on a mission to change.
Grace said she was “cautiously optimistic” at the polling booth today:
The Greens tried last time, but I’m a very solid, strong candidate and have lived here all my life.
However, Wong believes she could win the seat thanks to voters who are disenchanted with the major parties:
I’m quietly optimistic that our team has done the groundwork over the last six months to talk to as many people in McConnel as possible.
Grace said the abortion issue might help her support after the opposition was plagued for weeks over questions about whether it would allow a conscience vote on any private bill to repeal reproductive rights laws.
A lot of women are saying to me they can’t believe that it is actually a possibility that we could be criminalising abortion again.
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Volunteers report extraordinarily quiet polling booths
Volunteers from the three main parties report an extraordinarily quiet election day, with a record number casting their ballot early – just under 2 million people, as we flagged earlier.
The Greens are struggling to wrest the seats of Cooper and McConnel from the Labor government. The Cooper candidate Jonty Bush and former MP Kate Jones were spotted at St Finbarr’s school, normally one of the busiest in the seat. But booths in both seats were virtually deserted by voters this afternoon, according to campaigners.
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Two alleged incidents at polling booths today
Police have reportedly responded to two incidents at polling booths today.
Queensland police said they were called to a polling booth at Kawana Waters state college at aout 10am after reports of a public nuisance incident. Police said a 70-year-old Sunshine Coast man was given a move on direction.
And according to the Courier Mail, police were also called to the Alexandra Hills state high school polling booth after a man allegedly wielded a pipe and approached volunteers, swearing about abortion and the state’s laws.
No charges were laid and nobody was injured, according to the report.
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Charity worker running for Greens in Labor safe seat
And another contest could be instructive for those interested (or threatened) by the Greens’ progress in Brisbane. The charity worker Ansary Muhammed is running in Labor’s safest seat, Woodridge, where the Greens polled 7% last time.
Muhammed has run a massive campaign and has been endorsed by a host of local figures, including a professional boxer, who would, to put it mildly, not fit the stereotype of your typical Greens voter.
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Greens confident, but decidedly less than they were three weeks ago
At the start of the campaign, the Greens were very confident of winning at least two new seats – Cooper and McConnel – and running close in Greenslopes and Miller.
Things have changed due to the trajectory of the campaign, especially Labor’s focus on abortion, and the signal it sends to the sorts of voters who might have changed allegiance to the Greens.
Labor is even briefing that one of the Greens’ existing seats, South Brisbane, is at risk if the LNP drops to third, due to the flow of preferences. While that is unlikely, the state of play is that the Greens might win one seat, or they might win six.
The Greens are still confident, but decidedly less confident than three weeks ago.
If today is anything to go by, Labor thinks it can hold these seats, or at least it will be close. Steven Miles visited Cooper, Greenslopes, Miller and McConnel today. And Labor volunteers were at those polling booths in big numbers.
For context, the Greens have smashed Labor in terms of door knocking and field campaigning in the inner city. Today at some of these booths red shirts outnumbered green ones by 2:1.
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Just under 2 million Queenslanders voted in pre-poll
Earlier today, the Electoral Commission of Queensland confirmed that just under 2 million Queenslanders had voted in pre-poll.
The ECQ also said that one report, stating printer issues had impeded voting, was not correct:
Election staff are continuing to work tirelessly to take votes across Queensland including addressing minor issues as they arise in any of the over 1,000 polling booths currently open across the state.
As we mentioned earlier, voters have until 6pm tonight to cast their votes.
Postal votes should be returned as soon as possible, and by 5 November, to be included in the count, the commission said. People who requested a postal vote can choose to vote in person today, and should “dispose of their postal ballot papers safely”.
Counting will begin at 6pm tonight. The counts on election night are “the unofficial preliminary count and the indicative count”, and the official count begins tomorrow morning, the commission said.
More than 3.68 million Queenslanders are enrolled to vote in the election.
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Contests throughout the south-east for LNP and Labor
In the south-east there are also a lot of contests. Aspley and Mansfield are usually bellwethers, but tonight they’ll be a test of whether the LNP can break back through in Brisbane’s middle suburbs, where they’ve polled poorly for a long time.
Labor is also looking unsure about holding Pine Rivers, Springwood, Redlands, Capalaba, Mount Ommaney.
The party has put an almighty effort into defending Gaven, on the northern Gold Coast, and the popular housing minister, Meaghan Scanlon, who is tipped as a future leader. That contest should be close.
Ipswich will also be interesting. Labor lost Ipswich West at a byelection with a 17% swing. If that holds, the neighbouring seat of Ipswich could also fall. If not, regaining Ipswich West could be a lone bright spot for Labor.
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Action set for seats along the coastline
Seats along the coastline – from just north of Brisbane to the tip of Cape York – is where a lot of the action is going to be. Labor seats at risk include Pumicestone (Bribie Island), Redcliffe, Caloundra, Nicklin (Sunshine Coast), Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Keppel, Rockhampton, Mackay, Mundingburra, Thuringowa, Townsville, Mulgrave, Cairns, Barron River and Cook.
There are only two in that stretch of coastline – Gladstone and Maryborough – where Labor is comfortable. If either of those look shaky, we’re in landslide territory.
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A look at key electorates across the state
One of the things that’s usually fascinating about Queensland elections is that voters are not one big homogeneous group.
And so before tonight begins, a word of caution about “the swing” – it often goes in different directions in different parts of the state. But that also doesn’t mean that we can’t get a good read on the election from early results.
The easy bit first – no one in their right mind expects any sort of upset in Queensland’s west, or its agricultural areas. Everything west of the Great Dividing Range is staying put. Those seats are mostly held by the LNP, other than Traeger, which is Robbie Katter’s seat.
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What’s at stake this election
Before we take a look at the state of play across the state, you can read Ben Smee’s explainer or watch below for a refresher on what’s at stake:
Welcome
Good afternoon, and welcome to Guardian Australia’s coverage of the 2024 Queensland state election. My name is Emily Wind, and I’ll be taking you through all the action as polls close at 6pm and counting continues through the night.
The Labor party is vying for a fourth term in government, after the former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk ousted the LNP’s Campbell Newman back in 2015.
Palaszczuk announced her retirement from politics last December, with her deputy, Steven Miles, stepping up to become premier. He has had just 10 months to prove he deserves a four-year term in his own right, and will today go head-to-head with the LNP leader, David Crisafulli – who is hoping to nab power back from Labor after nearly a decade.
Labor has governed Queensland for 30 of the last 35 years. Katter’s Australian party, the Greens and One Nation are running multiple candidates, with several independents and minor parties also throwing their hat in the ring for the 93-electorate parliament.
In the lead up to today, the polls all pointed to a major LNP win – with the party needing 12 seats to form majority government. Yesterday, polls suggested Crisafulli was losing support but could still achieve a narrow victory.
Depending on how close the race is, we could have a winner within hours. However, with nearly 2 million people voting in pre-poll, this could delay results.
We have the whole Queensland team on deck to bring us updates throughout the night – including Ben Smee, Andrew Messenger and Joe Hinchliffe.
With that, let’s get started.
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