Qantas has had its fair share of high-profile challenges in the last few years: industrial relations disputes, frequent delays and cancellations, a record $1.9bn financial loss and luggage that goes missing with alarming frequency.
But one challenge flying under the radar is its ageing fleet.
Qantas says the average age of its planes is now 14.7 years, a figure that has increased significantly over the past 15 years. In 2006, the average age was just over eight years and before the pandemic it was just over 11 years.
It’s also a figure that’s substantially higher than most of its competitors flying similar routes.
Dr Ian Douglas from the University of New South Wales says there are a number of causes, including a pause on orders and deliveries during the pandemic, manufacturing delays and the secondary market for certain planes.
“So [fleet age] has almost certainly increased over time. And that would have been a conscious decision about managing capital by the board,” he says.
Douglas says differing philosophies between airlines influence their fleet choices. Operators may also choose to keep older planes for their lifetime simply because they know the plane and its maintenance history. Differing accounting rules across countries may also influence some airlines to turn over planes more frequently.
“While it would have pushed up maintenance costs a bit, it’s not either unsafe or a poor decision … Older aircraft are not a problem, per se. They just cost you more to keep in the air as there’s more maintenance work.”
It’s not just the time since manufacture that matters for planes, as many parts are replaced and “they almost turn into new aircraft again”. Douglas says a plane’s age is also measured in “cycles”.
“Aircraft age two ways. One is in chronological years and the other is the number of cycles that they do – how often you fly them, pressurise the cabin and then depressurise it. And those cycles are often as important as the years.”
Many Qantas planes were grounded during the pandemic, and so would not have been racking up these cycles.
Tracking website Planespotters estimates the average age of the Qantas fleet to be 13.7 years. This is higher than other major international airlines that together control over 60% of the Australian market. The average age of Cathay Pacific’s fleet is 10.5 years, Emirates is 8.9 and Singapore airlines just 6.9 years, according to the data.
Estimates of fleet ages do vary across data sources, as not all planes or subsidiaries are counted, and different dates can be used to calculate. Operators also frequently register and deregister planes – Qantas has recently taken on a number of newer aircraft, especially under its Jetstar subsidiary.
Domestically, the average age of Jetstar’s fleet is 10.84 years, and Virgin Australia’s is 11.53, according to Guardian Australia analysis of planes registered with the Civil Aviation Safety Authority.
A Qantas spokesperson noted that its aircraft were flying significantly less during the pandemic and many were parked in the desert for two years.
Beyond the aggregate numbers, the fleet age is also affected by the market for used planes and external factors around getting new planes. Douglas notes that the Airbus A380 has “no aftermarket”, and that airlines face the choice of scrapping them for nothing or keeping them running – which might increase fleet age.
Some newer planes, such as the 787 Dreamliner, have also faced manufacturing and supply delays. Qantas also paused deliveries of new planes at the beginning of the pandemic. Qantas told Guardian Australia that it has recently placed two orders for up to 300 planes to arrive over the next 4-5 years.
“I think there will be another [reduction in fleet age] because they’ve announced that refresh of the domestic fleet from 737s to A320s,” Douglas says.
“It’s not all that unusual for a carrier with a large fleet to have a decrease in age and then a gradual increase in age over a period of time. And then another dip comes as one of the major fleet types has refreshed.”
Douglas says all of this might change as regulators increasingly look at fuel efficiency standards.
“Certainly the newer aircraft are more fuel-efficient.
“As the pressure becomes greater on environmental questions, I think that will put greater pressure on the retirement of older aircraft, depending on the availability of sustainable aviation fuel.”
In the table below you can explore all of the planes currently registered with the Civil Aviation Authority (Casa) and operated by major Australian airlines.
