COAL exports out of Newcastle will likely finish the year at least 10 per cent down on 2021, but the industry says the drop-off is purely the result of weather-related disruptions.
Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS), which operates the Carrington coal loader and one of two terminals on Kooragang Island, released its September figures yesterday, showing throughput to the end of the month totalling 68.2 million tonnes, down noticeably on the 84.9 million tonnes for the first nine months of last year.
Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) does not publish running totals of its Kooragang operation but the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics summary of the industry in general shows that NCIG monthly totals are also well below its best monthly performances of more than 5 million tonnes.
In the first seven months of the year, NCIG shipped 27.2 million tonnes, which is more than for the same period last year, when it shipped 23.9 million tonnes.
This was because a wild storm in late 2020 put one of its two shiploaders out of commission for much of the year. Before the storm with both shiploaders operating NCIG moved 30 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2020.
PWCS chief executive Hennie du Plooy said yesterday that coal availability - or a lack of it - was the major reason for the drop of exports from Newcastle this year.
Mr du Plooy said the port had generally avoided disruption in heavy seas but the main Hunter rail line was flooded during heavy rain earlier in the year, and flooded pits meant the industry had been impacted by weather.
It was not the result of any turning away from coal as a fuel.
He said even if the industry was to recover for the rest of the year and ship at maximum rates, PWCS was still looking at an annual total of about 100 million tonnes, or about 10 per cent down on the 111 million tonnes last year.
This week's edition of the Australian Coal Report noted a slight moderation in the spot price of Newcastle thermal coal, down to $US415 ($636) a tonne from $US430 ($659), with the return in Australian dollars helped by the recent slide in our currency to just 65 cents US.
Financial analysts who did not pick the current rises are still forecasting big falls in coal prices.
Against this, ACR says Glencore recently settled with Nippon Steel at $US375 ($575) for 2023 power station coal shipments, but it is unclear whether this will have the same official status as the conventional market-setting annual Japanese "reference price".
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