Good morning! Week 2 of preseason football is upon us and the start of the regular season is now less than three weeks away.
That means we’re getting into prime fantasy draft season for all the managers out there, casual and competitive. So we begin today with another useful tool for when you’re on the clock: player tiers! After that, we’ll take a peek at the NBA futures market, wrap up another NFL division betting preview and then check in on the WNBA postseason now that one game has been played in each first-round series.
Fantasy Football Player Tiers and Why They Matter
You want player rankings? We’ve got loads of ‘em for different league formats and scoring settings. But rankings are not the be-all-end-all when it comes to fantasy drafts.
If you select the highest-ranked player remaining each time your pick comes around, you might end up with a run of five or six players at the same position to start your draft and you don’t necessarily want that. That’s why tiers exist. If you miss out on a player, target an alternative at the same position in the same tier.
Michael Fabiano isolated the tiers at each position:
Tier 1 is the best of the best, though you’ll have to pay up to draft Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes. That’s why you might consider waiting for the next tier, high QB1s, mid QB1s or low QB1s later in drafts.
Matt Rourke/AP
Much like quarterback, you know which players make up the very small top tier at this position—Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. As you work your way down the tiers, more and more players make up each group all the way down to low handcuffs.
Cooper Kupp was head and shoulders above not just the rest of the wide receivers but all fantasy scorers last season. Still, he’s joined by two other wideouts in the top tier with plenty of good options remaining beyond the elite choices.
Mark Andrews joined Travis Kelce in tier 1 after his TE1 season in 2021, though the dropoff after those two is rather drastic and even more so after the next group. Pay up for a top tight end or be ready to stream the position at some point.
Julio Cortez/AP
Other odds and ends and things you should know:
Baker Mayfield is expected to be Panthers’ QB1, Melvin Gordon on Javonte Willians: “They want ‘Vonte to be the guy,” James Robsinon is expected to play Week 1, Zach Wilson’s surgery recovery time opens the door for QB1 Joe Flacco. Todd Bowles doesn’t have a firm date for Tom Brady’s return to the team, Seahawks RB Ken Walker underwent an undisclosed procedure, and Antonio Gibson was seen doing special teams drills in practice this week.
With the NBA Schedule Out, Where Do the Futures Markets Stand?
Minutes before the NBA released its complete 2022-23 schedule, one of the league’s biggest stars reaffirmed his commitment to stick with his current team.
LeBron James and the Lakers agreed to a two-year extension worth $97.1 million. Now the focus returns to Kevin Durant’s future in Brooklyn, and, to a lesser extent, Donovan Mitchell’s in Utah.
O.K., back to the actual games! The season tips off Oct. 19 and ends April 9. In between, there’s a packed Christmas Day slate, no games on Election Day and a brand-new “rivalry week” which, notably, pits the Warriors against the Grizzlies and the Celtics against the Lakers.
Kirby Lee/USA Today network
The season starts exactly two months from now, so let’s check where the current futures odds stand at SI Sportsbook.
The Celtics (+550) stand alone as title favorites with the defending champion Warriors (+600) and Suns (+600) close behind. Joel Embiid and Luka Dončić are co-favorites (+500) for MVP. No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero (+300) has the best odds to win Rookie of the Year.
Warriors breakout star Jordan Poole (+450) is the favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year. Rudy Gobert (+400) stands alone with the best odds to win Defensive Player of the Year for the fourth time. And Ime Udoka (+750) is the favorite to win Coach of the Year in his second season at the helm in Boston.
A more in-depth breakdown of the markets for each award as well as the championship odds is available here.
Super Bowl Champion Rams Projected to Defend NFC West Title
The NFC West was home to three playoff teams a season ago, including the Super Bowl champions. It no longer holds the distinction of the best division in football—the AFC West took that out from under it after the Russell Wilson trade, among other transactions—but it’s still a difficult one to win.
Los Angeles is the favorite to take the crown for the second year in a row, something no NFC West team has done since it went back-to-back in 2017-18. The 49ers, who hold a six-game regular-season win streak against the Rams, could challenge for the title with new starting quarterback Trey Lance.
The Cardinals are next in line with recently extended quarterback Kyler Murray at the helm one year after breaking through and making the playoffs. And bringing up the rear are the Seahawks, who will be without Wilson for the first time in a decade.
So how will each team fare this season? Read the division betting preview as well as the team over/under betting previews to get an idea of the expectations and schedule for each squad:
Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-118)
NFC West future odds: +120 (First)
NFC future odds: +450 (Tied-Second)
Super Bowl futures odds: +1000 (Tied-Fourth)
“The Rams have some of the best future odds at SI Sportsbook, but their over/under wins total of 10.5 is one win behind the NFL’s highest mark of 11.5 wins shared by the Buccaneers, Bills and Packers. All four teams are early Super Bowl favorites and Los Angeles gets to play each of those teams, including two on the road. The Rams went 12-5 last season en route to their title.” — Matt Ehalt
Ashley Landis/AP
San Francisco 49ers: 9.5 — Over (-152) | Under (+110)
NFC West future odds: +175 (Second)
NFC future odds: +750 (Fourth)
Super Bowl futures odds: +1400 (Tied-Sixth)
“Trotting out essentially a redshirt FCS quarterback has not dampened expectations in the Bay at all. The 49ers are projected to not only make the playoffs in the top-heavy NFC but they also have some of the best Super Bowl odds at SI Sportsbook. That seems fair given how close this team was to accomplishing that goal two years ago and it almost had another chance last season before losing to the Rams.” — Kyle Wood
Arizona Cardinals: 8.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-111)
NFC West future odds: +330 (Third)
NFC future odds: +1400 (Tied-Sixth)
Super Bowl futures odds: +2500 (Tied-15th)
“The Cardinals produced an impressive 11-6 record in 2021, beginning the season 7-0 and logging their first winning season since 2015. However, for the second year in a row, head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s squad suffered a second-half collapse, losing four of its last five games. Ultimately, in the postseason, the fifth-seeded Cardinals lost 34-11 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the wild card round. Can the Cardinals build on last year’s success?” — Jen Piacenti
Seattle Seahawks: 4.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-110)
NFC West future odds: +1400 (Fourth)
NFC future odds: +5000 (Tied-13th)
Super Bowl futures odds: +12500 (Tied-29th)
“Seattle finished 7-10 last season, and is hoping that either Drew Lock or Geno Smith can be serviceable enough to manage an offense that has strong weapons in the passing game in wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The star tandem combined for 55 receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons but could witness significant regression in their first season without their all-pro quarterback.” — Frankie Taddeo
Caean Couto/AP
More divisional betting breakdowns:
AFC East: Bills | Patriots | Dolphins | Jets
NFC East: Cowboys | Eagles | Commanders | Giants
AFC South: Titans | Colts | Texans | Jaguars
NFC South: Buccaneers | Saints | Panthers | Falcons
AFC West: Chiefs | Chargers | Broncos | Raiders
Next up: the NFC North!
Aces Leap to Prohibitive Title Favorites After Game 1 Win
The WNBA postseason got underway this week and fans were treated to a pair of competitive games and two blowouts.
The Liberty scored a 98-91 road win against the Sky on Wednesday and now have an edge in the best-of-three first-round series, which continues over the weekend in Chicago. Later that same night, the Aces blew out the visiting Mercury, 79-63. And on Thursday evening, the Sun defeated the Wings, 93-68, while the Storm narrowly edged out the Mystics, 86-83.
Postseason play picks back up Saturday and Sunday. After one game, the Aces’ championship odds dropped from +175 favorites to -125 at SI Sportsbook. The Sun, who have the second-best odds, went from +200 before the playoffs began to +250 despite winning the opener convincingly. The Sky and Storm are tied for the third-best odds (+600) and the Mystics (+800) come in at fifth before there’s a massive dropoff.
John Locher/AP
Saturday
12 p.m. ET (ESPN): Liberty vs. Sky (-9) | New York leads series, 1-0
9 p.m. ET (ESPN2): Mercury vs. Aces (-16) | Las Vegas leads series, 1-0
Sunday
12 p.m. ET (ABC): Wings vs. Sun | Connecticut leads series, 1-0
4 p.m. ET (ESPN): Mystics vs. Storm | Seattle leads series, 1-0
In Other News
Rangers Fire President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels: The decision to part ways with Daniels came two days after manager Chris Woodward was fired. Texas is currently 53-65, third in the AL West, and is on its way to its sixth consecutive losing season.
Chargers, Derwin James Jr. Agree to Contract Extension: L.A.’s All-Pro safety inked a deal that made him the highest paid safety in league history. The agreement also ends James’ “hold-in.”
Fantasy-Relevant Training Camp Updates: Catch up with what’s been going on with each team around the NFL this week from injury news to position battles to preseason performances.
Thanks for reading Winners Club! Enjoy your weekend.
