Vladimir Putin risks sending thousands of young Russians to their death if he seeks to grab some form of significant victory in Ukraine by May 9, a senior MP warned on Monday.
The day is a key date in the Russian military calendar as it marks the Nazis’ surrender in the Second World War and an annual parade is held through Moscow’s Red Square.
Military experts believe the Russian President will have to start within days to make preparations for a major offensive in the Donbas if he is to snatch a meaningful victory.
However, if he continues to deploy troops piecemeal into the eastern region against well-trained Ukrainian forces it is expected to lead to more casualties compared to if it gave them more time to properly regroup and re-equip, following a series of defeats and setbacks at the start of the invasion.
Former army officer Tom Tugendhat MP, chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, told The Standard: “Moscow’s timetable is writing promises it’s generals can’t keep. They’re pushing a unified campaign now but without the logistics to support it.
“Putin will have to start making major preparations if he’s not going to just send thousands of young Russians to their deaths.”
Defence chiefs in London stressed on Monday morning that Mr Putin’s forces are yet to make a “significant breakthrough” in the Donbas.
They emphasised that Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol, still ongoing after the war entered its third month, was preventing Russian generals from redeploying troops surrounding the last stronghold of local fighters within the city.
The defence of Mariupol had left many Russian units “exhausted” and had hit their combat effectiveness, they added.
In addition, they accused defence chiefs in Moscow of putting military personnel rather than civilian officials in charge of payments to the families of soldiers killed in Ukraine in what is thought to be an attempt to hide the scale of losses from the Russian people.
Estimates of the number of Russian soldiers killed ranges from around 10,000 to more than 20,000.
Three or four times as many Russian troops are believed to have been injured or incapacitated.
In its latest intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence said: “Russia has made minor advances in some areas since shifting its focus to fully occupying the Donbas. Without sufficient logistical and combat support enablers in place, Russia has yet to achieve a significant breakthrough.
“Russia’s decision to besiege rather than attack Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant means many Russian units remain fixed in the city and cannot be redeployed. Ukraine’s defence of Mariupol has also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat effectiveness.”
It added: “Russia’s Ministry of Defence has proposed compensation payments for the families of deceased service personnel be overseen by military rather than civilian officials. This likely reflects a desire to hide the true scale of Russia’s losses from the domestic population.”
