Vladimir Putin's flagrant invasion of Ukraine has tipped the Government away from its ambivalence (or antipathy) towards autonomous sanctions into accepting their value, Sam Sachdeva writes
Comment: Having played a key role in turning a draft law on autonomous sanctions into the "least successful piece of legislation in New Zealand history", the Government had done little in recent years to suggest any interest in reviving the idea.
Less than a year ago, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta told Stuff the Government had not given any consideration to implementing such a regime, while Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was similarly dismissive in 2019 when asked about a National Party push for action.
“I have not yet come across a situation where I feel that we’ve been unable to take a stand or a position on an issue and have needed this legislation in order to do so.”
Yet a few short years on, she has identified such a scenario: Parliament is now set to pass sanctions against Russia under urgency, while Mahuta indicated Cabinet would likely consider a more sweeping autonomous regime “in the next few weeks”.
While the legislation itself was not released on Monday, its broad contours as outlined by Ardern – introducing the ability to freeze assets of those connected to the Russian invasion, with a public sanctions register – is on the face of it strikingly similar to the proposals the Prime Minister and other Cabinet members knocked down not that long ago.
So what has changed?
Most simply, Vladimir Putin has provided the worst-case scenario for a country absent such law: a flagrant breach of human rights and international law, carried out by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with the associated ability to veto any sanctions against itself.
“We don't want for this region of the world, we don't want our countries to become safe havens for kleptocratic regimes, human rights abusers, and it would be really helpful to have New Zealand in that as well.” – Kimberley Kitching, Australian senator
While the Government steadfastly trumpeted the actions it was taking, such as travel bans and export prohibitions for strategic goods, it was increasingly clear that New Zealand was falling behind like-minded partners in the Ukraine response.
Australian senator Kimberley Kitching, who pushed for Australia to introduce its own Magnitsky-style sanctions regime, laid out the potential damage to New Zealand’s reputation at a Monday morning briefing hosted by the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China.
“We don't want for this region of the world, we don't want our countries to become safe havens for kleptocratic regimes, human rights abusers, and it would be really helpful to have New Zealand in that as well.”
But Russia also presents a less fraught target for the Government than China, who some have previously argued should face sanctions for human rights violations.
While China is our largest trading partner, Russia ranked 21st in 2019 (wedged between Fiji and Mexico) so there is little fiscal peril in clamping down.
Putin may have called sanctions “akin to declaring war”, but any Russian offensive towards the distant shores of Aotearoa seems a distant possibility while other larger nations would be higher up any Moscow list of targets for cyber attacks and other retribution.
Ardern expressed hope the legislation would secure Parliament’s unanimous support, and a hefty majority seems certain at the very least.
ACT and Te Paati Māori have both confirmed they will vote in favour. National Party foreign affairs spokesman Gerry Brownlee, whose member’s bill to establish an autonomous sanctions regime was voted down by Labour last year, told Newsroom the party would decide whether to back the Russia legislation at its caucus meeting on Tuesday but added: “It would be kind of strange if we didn’t.”
While the Government had seemed reluctant to put a regime in place, Brownlee said it had become too embarrassing for New Zealand not to be able to join its partners in taking action, while it risked becoming a haven for “less than desirable people” to protect their assets.
“A straight-out vanity project on his [Putin’s] part is going to cost the lives of tens of thousands of people and threaten so many more.”
He said the Government had moved too slowly on Russia’s specific violations, and still needed to introduce a broader autonomous sanctions regime for future cases.
Where the Greens will land on the legislation is less easy to predict: while the party has been pushing the Government to take in as many as 2000 refugees from Ukraine, it has previously expressed concern about any move away from the multilateral system.
Green Party global affairs spokeswoman Golriz Ghahraman told Newsroom the caucus would discuss its position on Tuesday morning, with a number of concerns likely to be raised.
Those included whether there was a proper review provision for the legislation, which was likely to serve as a template for a wider sanctions regime, as well as sufficient transparency around the decision-making process.
Ghahraman said it was also important to have assurances of a clear moral and legal case for any sanctions, suggesting a vote of condemnation at the UN General Assembly (where P5 nations do not hold veto powers) could be a prerequisite for any domestic sanctions.
New Zealand’s independent foreign policy was the safeguard against any pressure from foreign nations, the Prime Minister said – and an autonomous sanctions regime could prove a stern test of that independence.
But whether or not the Greens back the bill – or any other party, for that matter – Labour’s majority means it is guaranteed to progress into law before the week is up.
The bigger question is what this law, and a likely successor offering broader sanction powers, means in terms of New Zealand’s place in the wider world order.
China has kept its powder relatively dry so far, but any move to more publicly back Putin could place the Government in a difficult position.
Ardern said New Zealand would continue to encourage China to “take a stand on what’s happened in Ukraine”, adding dryly when asked about the risk of an East-West split: “Those tensions aren’t new.”
That is true, but it is also the case that such tensions have been steadily increasing and show no signs of abating in the near future.
New Zealand’s independent foreign policy was the safeguard against any pressure from foreign nations, the Prime Minister said – and an autonomous sanctions regime could prove a stern test of that independence.
