Vladimir Putin is likely to struggle to launch decisive offensive operations in Ukraine as Russia’s forces becoming increasingly stretched, British military chiefs said on Tuesday.
Although Russian troops are focused on seizing control of the Donetsk region of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, undermanning and the threat of counter offensives from Ukrainian forces in the south mean they are making slow progress.
“Russia has struggled to sustain effective offensive combat power since the start of the invasion and this problem is likely becoming increasingly acute,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence said in its daily intelligence briefing.
“Russia continues to commit what are nominally six separate armies to its Donbas offensive. At full strength, before the invasion, these formations were established for around 150,000 personnel.
“In recent weeks, Russia has often operated with company-sized groupings of around 100 personnel when undertaking offensive operations in any one sector at a time.
“As well as dealing with severe under-manning, Russian planners face a dilemma between deploying reserves to the Donbas or defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the southwestern Kherson sector.
“While Russia may still make further territorial gains, their operational tempo and rate of advance is likely to be very slow without a significant operational pause for reorganisation and refit.”
The British military assessment came as it was reported that Russian troops have tried unsuccessfully to advance towards the city of Avdiyivka north of Donetsk in recent days, according to the head of Avdiyivka's military administration, Vitaliy Barabash.
Avdiyivka lies on a road leading from Donetsk to the settlement of Kostyantynivka and further towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the key cities in the region that are still controlled by Ukraine.
"(Enemy statements) that the Avdiyivka-Kostyantynivka highway... is under their control are untrue," Mr Barabash told Ukrainian television.
He said Ukrainian forces have pushed back the Russians after the latter attacked for several days.
"Enemy losses are much bigger than ours," he said, and include about 40 dead.
Meanwhile Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expanded the shakeup of his security services on Monday by suspending 28 more officials, a day after he dismissed two senior officials over allegations that their agencies harboured "collaborators and traitors".
In his nightly video address, Mr Zelensky said a "personnel audit" of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) was underway, and the dismissal of the 28 officials was being decided.
"Different levels, different areas of focus. But the reasons are similar - unsatisfactory results of work," Mr Zelensky said.
On Sunday, he had fired SBU chief Ivan Bakanov and prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova. Mr Zelenskyy, citing hundreds of criminal proceedings into treason and collaboration by people within their departments and other law enforcement agencies.
