WASHINGTON — Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers Tuesday morning that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not expect the level of Ukrainian resistance to his invasion, or the level and speed of sanctions imposed by countries around the world.
“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down,” she said.
Haines said Putin likely expected the conflict to last a matter of days at most.
“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose, but what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time given the significant costs he is incurring,” she said.
CIA Director William Burns agreed, saying Putin initially believed Ukraine was weakened and easily intimidated, and that he had modernized his military to the point of ensuring a quick victory. Burns added that the Russian leader was confident that he had sanction-proofed his economy, and that the Europeans were too distracted to pay much attention to the invasion.
“He’s been proven wrong on every count,” Burns said.
Putin’s plan was premised on seizing Kyiv within the first two days of the campaign, Burns said. At this point, Burns said he cannot see how Putin can stand up a puppet regime in the face of massive opposition from the Ukrainian people, warning there is an “ugly next few weeks” ahead.
Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier estimated that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died so far.
Haines, along with Burns, Berrier, NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone and FBI Director Christopher Wray are testifying before the House Intelligence Committee, which normally holds closed or classified meetings. The panel will get a classified assessment in the afternoon.
