Almost a year ago, Russia began moving forces from Siberia and other regions to the border with Ukraine. With more than half of its land forces now poised for an attack, whether or not there will be a war with Ukraine hinges on the decision of Vladimir Putin, whose options range from a large-scale assault to a decision to hold his troops back or ultimately send them home.
At stake is a potentially devastating conflict, sanctions and economic hardship, and a verdict on the legacy of Putin, who has broadcast his decision to engage in brinksmanship with the west, saying that the tensions have a “definite effect” and should be maintained “as long as possible”.
