Putin and Prigozhin avert bloodshed, but their feud is not over

Vladimir Putin told the public he would put down Prigozhin’s uprising brutally, describing it as ‘internal treason’. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Though they’ve avoided open bloodshed, it is hard to imagine that Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin will ever be reconciled. The Russian leader has a political motive to deal harshly with his maverick warlord or risk appearing weak, a cardinal sin in Kremlin politics. And the Russian leader has never been known as one to forgive a betrayal.

The extraordinary events of the past 48 hours – Prigozhin’s armed mutiny, Putin’s call for “brutal” reprisals, an 11th-hour peace deal – might appear to have resolved themselves. The leader of the Wagner mercenary group has halted his armed mutiny and march on the Russian capital, apparently in exchange for an amnesty and exile in Belarus. He is no longer on course for civil war with Moscow.