Rishi Sunak has an electoral problem: there is virtually nothing he can do to stir the national mood.
Plenty of statistics present a rosy picture of the UK economy. GDP has risen to its fastest in two years. UK exports are up. Inflation is down to a steady 2.3%, while wage growth is strong. After a pandemic lull, business investment is rising and confidence rebounding, while rates are set for a cut or two in the second half of the year.
But these facts and figures belie the lived experience of the average Brit. Work still feels precarious, in a number of industries, and job opportunities scant. Savings built up during Covid have evaporated. The cost-of-living crisis has not abated, and everything still feels too expensive.
Nowhere is this better exemplified than at that great British staple, the pub.
We report today that the average pint in London costs about 15% more than at the start of last year, with some pubs putting prices up by as much as 20%.
In many parts of the capital now, a group of four friends who each get a round in won’t get change from 100 quid.
Sunak, a teetotaller who still does his fair share of pint-pouring photo ops, may be betting that the national spirit will at last be roused if England reach the Euro quarter finals at the end of the month. But the cheery mood may soon dry up once credit card statements arrive, and the damage from a couple of pub trips becomes clear.
It will take a lot more than some red lights on the economic dashboard turning green to make voters feel good about things. Even if Sunak feels he has successfully laid the groundwork, it could well be year or two before the ‘cost-of-living crisis’ falls out of the vernacular.
By which point he will be lying on a beach, enjoying the Californian sun.
