As the NFL conference championships approach, bookmakers face the daunting task of considering numerous factors when setting the odds. However, this year, one surprising trend has emerged in the NFC Championship Game: a significant amount of money heading towards the underdog, the Detroit Lions. Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook, expressed his surprise at the public's fading of the San Francisco 49ers.
The excitement surrounding the Lions stems from a captivating storyline and the likability of head coach Dan Campbell. Bettors are showing their support by wagering on the Lions' moneyline, indicating their belief in an upset. While the Lions' chances might seem improbable, the public sentiment continues to favor them.
At the South Point sportsbook, bettors are eagerly engaging in the Lions-49ers matchup. Some are backing the Lions on the moneyline, while others are taking the safer route by betting on the 49ers and laying 7.5 points. Chris Andrews, the sportsbook director, finds himself in a position where he needs a 49ers win combined with a Lions cover. However, with the kickoff approaching, the betting landscape may quickly change.
The SuperBook has also noticed an overwhelming amount of Detroit moneyline action. The Lions, currently sitting at +280, offer an intriguing payout. A $100 bet on the Lions would result in a $280 profit, providing a total payout of $380. On the other hand, the 49ers, at -340, necessitate a $340 wager to yield a $100 profit, totaling a $440 payout. Given these odds, it's evident why the public is leaning towards the Lions.
When it comes to the point spread, however, The SuperBook sees a more balanced distribution of bets. The 49ers opened as 7-point favorites, briefly dipped to 6.5 points, and then returned to the original spread of 7. While the spread bets remain evenly split, Degnon expects the public to shift their preference towards the 49ers as kickoff approaches.
The Lions have been impressive this season, boasting a 14-5 record both straight up and against the spread. In contrast, the 49ers hold a 13-5 SU and a 9-9 ATS record. Despite the surge in Lions moneyline action, Degnon anticipates a swing in sentiment towards the 49ers as the game draws nearer, particularly in terms of moneyline parlay and teaser bets.
Amidst this Lions frenzy, professional bettor Randy McKay doesn't share the same level of confidence in a Detroit upset. However, he believes that the Lions can cover the 7-point spread. McKay has already placed a bet on the Lions +7 and recommends taking the Lions +4 in the first half. Drawing on the Lions' previous game against the Green Bay Packers, where they chose to receive the ball after winning the coin toss, he sees potential for the Lions to compete against the 49ers.
Another sharp bettor echoes McKay's sentiments, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the Lions' offense and expressing doubts about the 49ers' defense. Considering Brock Purdy's game management skills, he believes that a 7-point lead would be too much for the 49ers to overcome.
Moving on to the AFC Championship Game, The SuperBook initially set the Baltimore Ravens as 3.5-point favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the line has since settled at Ravens -4. The Ravens hold a 14-4 SU and a 12-6 ATS record, while the Chiefs' record stands at 13-6 SU and 11-6-1 ATS. Degnon finds it interesting that the Chiefs are garnering more straight bets, with nearly double the number of tickets compared to the Ravens. He wonders if this trend will remain as the public becomes more involved during the weekend.
Regarding the total points line, there is consensus at The SuperBook. The initial total opened at 45.5 points but quickly dropped to 44.5 points. Despite no further movement, there is a possibility that the number will increase as the weekend approaches. The public is heavily favoring the Over, which is expected in an NFL playoff game unless significant weather considerations come into play.
Another sharp bettor believes in the Ravens, wagering on them at -3 and expressing confidence in their ability to compete against the Chiefs. He highlights the Chiefs' previous wins over Miami and Buffalo, which came against injury-depleted defenses. While acknowledging Patrick Mahomes' talent, he believes the Chiefs lack what it takes to match up against the Ravens.
This sharp bettor also places faith in the Ravens' Super Bowl chances, wagering on them at +195. Although there is some risk involved due to potential injuries, he believes the value in the odds outweighs the uncertainty.
While the high-roller bets are sure to flood in as Sunday's games draw closer, smaller bets hold their own appeal. One bettor exhibited the power of a small bet back in May when they wagered $300 on a three-team futures parlay. The odds of this parlay hitting were an astounding +37385, roughly equivalent to 374/1. If the Chiefs triumph over the Ravens, the bettor stands to profit an incredible $112,155, assuming they resist the urge to sell the ticket.
As we eagerly await the conference championship weekend, it's clear that excitement and speculation surround the games. The Lions' unexpected surge in moneyline love and the public's divided opinions on the 49ers have created an intriguing dynamic. Similarly, the Ravens' and Chiefs' matchup continues to draw considerable attention, with betting patterns hinting at a potentially exciting showdown. Regardless of the outcome, Sunday promises to be an exciting day for both casual fans and avid bettors alike.
As always, please remember to gamble responsibly.
