The ACT government has no plans to close Tuggeranong public schools with low attendance as advocates warn not to repeat mistakes made in the 2006-08 school closures.
Newly released data from the ACT school census reveals schools in the north of Canberra were generally closer to the campus capacity than the south.
Analysis by The Canberra Times showed seven schools had enrolments that were at 90 per cent or more of their total capacity.
Belconnen High School was at 100 per cent capacity in February, with 600 students in years 7 to 10.
An ACT Education Directorate spokesman said there were no plans to expand any of these schools at 90 per cent capacity or more, besides a plan to upgrade the Lyneham High School gym.
The spokesman said there were also no plans to close any of the 11 Tuggeranong schools that were under 60 per cent capacity.
Demographer at the Australian National University's Centre for social policy research Liz Allen said south of Canberra had an ageing population with lower fertility rates. North of the lake there was greater population growth associated with young families, migration and land releases.
"The ACT government has not done very well by way of demographic analysis over time to understand the growth areas and the declines in share of school aged children and as a result, we have seen pressures placed on schools, particularly in high-growth areas, because of poor government decision-making," Dr Allen said.
The seven schools approaching capacity were:
- Alfred Deakin High School
- Belconnen High School
- Giralang Primary
- Hawker Primary
- Lyneham High School
- The Canberra College
- UC SSC Lake Ginninderra
She said some specific schools were approaching full capacity because they had good reputations and parents were willing to move to the priority enrolment area to secure a place.
"We see schools like Lyneham [High School], and there are some schools in the south, Narrabundah [College] for example, which have a very good reputation. And parents are willing to do nearly anything to get their kids in these places," Dr Allen said.
"It may not actually be an advantage but reputation is powerful, because perception is more powerful than reality."
She said the school closures under the Towards 2020 plan, initiated when Andrew Barr was Education Minister, led to the closure of a substantial number of schools in Canberra's north in growth areas where children and young families were residing.
"I kid you not the demographic analysis that informed school closures did not adequately consider basic demographic figures around births and around the demographic characteristics of an area," she said.
"So we had schools closed particularly in the north and among primary schools, that then caused over time the surrounding schools that remain to swell in size. And they've grown so rapidly because they're accommodating numerous suburbs worth of children that the buildings can't accommodate.
"We're now in this position, particularly in the north, where we don't have adequate physical infrastructure because we've not had adequate planning and strategic foresight to ensure that public schools have been prepared for what we knew was coming."
Dr Allen said it would be short-sighted to close schools that were now under-capacity in Tuggeranong.
"While south of the lake is no longer that quintessential nappy valley, that will change with time and there will be families that enter these areas because housing becomes relatively cheaper. And so, demography is forever moving," she said.
ACT Council of Parents and Citizens Association executive officer Veronica Elliott said schools were planned well in advanced for new suburbs but older schools in areas of urban infill hadn't kept up with population growth.
"Over the last 30 to 40 years, we can see that infrastructure planning hasn't been consistent with development and changes in population," Ms Elliott said.
"Some of the schools scheduled for closure in the 2006 Towards 2020 school closure plan, like Giralang, Mount Rogers and Dickson College, are now approaching capacity.
"Other schools like Bonython in Tuggeranong were built to cope with a temporary population surge and then expected to close but since then, nearby urban infill means the school has been well attended."
While on paper there were no schools over capacity, some schools may have had to turn hallways and specialist teaching spaces like libraries, music and art rooms into teaching spaces to meet the enrolment numbers.
"Council wants to see the ACT government fund public school infrastructure based on the actual capacity of classrooms and facilities like bathrooms, making sure that specialist learning and teaching spaces are protected so parents can be confident that every school can offer in an equitable education," Ms Elliott said.
The directorate spokesman said a cohort transition model was used to create projections for enrolment growth in partnership with the ANU School of Demography.
"There are a range of ways the Education Directorate can respond to enrolment growth in a region if required, including changes to enrolment policy such as priority enrolment areas including shared enrolment zones, changes to Category A and B status to limit out of area enrolments, the installation of relocatable learning units, permanent school expansions and the construction of new schools," the spokesman said.
