The calendar is inching closer to March and the college basketball games are starting to resemble it. Carnage ruled this week in men’s college basketball, as 16 teams ranked in the Top 25 lost at least one game. One of them was No. 1 Michigan—the Wolverines were defeated by Duke—meaning for a second straight week, the poll could have a new top dog.
Given that chaos was the name of the game in men’s college basketball, Monday’s new AP Top 25 poll, besides looking a whole lot different among its returning programs, could welcome in a new team as well.
Here’s how the voters could shape Week 16's Top 25 come Monday.
Predicting AP Top 25 Men's College Basketball Poll
1. Duke Blue Devils
Previous Ranking: 3
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 at Notre Dame, Feb. 28 vs. Virginia
What a week for Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils. First, Duke annihilated Syracuse by 37 points on Monday. Then, the Blue Devils, despite not playing their best, outlasted the previously top-ranked Wolverines in a physical, hard-fought game that may have been a preview of what’s to come in April. Duke convincingly lands at No. 1 for the first time this season.
2. Michigan Wolverines
Previous Ranking: 1
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 vs. Minnesota, Feb. 27 at Illinois
It’s possible that the voters could choose to drop the Wolverines down two spots to No. 3, but that feels like a bit of an overreaction to the Duke loss. Michigan was down by three points with under a minute left before eventually falling to the Blue Devils. Earlier in the week, the Wolverines were leading Purdue, another top-10 team, by as many as 20 points en route to a convincing win. Point being, Michigan is still deserving enough to be ranked No. 2.
3. Arizona Wildcats
Previous Ranking: 4
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 at Baylor, Feb. 28 vs. Kansas
It’s difficult to not be impressed with what the Wildcats achieved this week. On Tuesday, the program announced that do-it-all freshman forward Koa Peat, the team’s second-leading scorer, would miss both games against ranked opponents in BYU and Houston. Riding back-to-back 20-point games from guard Anthony Dell’Orso, the Wildcats defeated BYU at home, then beat Houston at its own game in a defensive battle between two Final Four hopefuls. Arizona has a case to be ranked No. 2, but they’ve done enough to rise at least one spot in this week’s poll.
4. Iowa State Cyclones
Previous Ranking: 6
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 at Utah, Feb. 28 vs. Texas Tech
The Cyclones entered the week like a lion and came out like a lamb. Thanks to an impressively-balanced offense and some clutch heroics from Nate Heise, Iowa State stunned Houston at home. That’s the good part. The bad? Iowa State had no answer for BYU freshman star AJ Dybantsa in its follow-up to that stellar performance, a 10-point loss in which the Cyclones were outworked and outhustled by the Cougars on Saturday. The Cyclones’ head-to-head win over Houston will likely prevent a fall down the rankings.
5. Houston Cougars
Previous Ranking: 2
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 23 at Kansas, Feb. 28 vs. Colorado
It was a rough week for the Cougars. After soaring to No. 2 this past week, Houston stumbled twice, first on the road in a narrow loss to Iowa State then once again at home against a Wildcats team that was without its second-leading scorer in Peat. It’s the first time this season that Houston has lost back-to-back games, so while the Cougars will fall, don’t expect the voters to come down too hard on the program.
6. Florida Gators
Previous Ranking: 12
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 at Texas, Feb. 28 vs. Arkansas
After losing four times in the season’s first two months, Florida has dropped just two games since the start of January. Perhaps most impressive is how the Gators are winning. They’ve won their last seven games—each of them conference contests—by an average of 21.5 points. In a week when many within the Top 25 lost a game, the Gators are a big riser.
7. UConn Huskies
Previous Ranking: 5
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 vs. St. John’s, Feb. 28 vs. Seton Hall
UConn entered the week with just two losses, both of which came against ranked opponents. That’s what made Wednesday’s loss to unranked Creighton, in which the Huskies’ normally-stout defense had no answers for the Blue Jays inside or outside the three-point line, so confounding. UConn saved face with a win over Villanova, but they’re destined to slide in this week’s poll.
8. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Previous Ranking: 11
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 vs. Portland, Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga continued its dominance of the WCC (15–1 in the conference this year) with a convincing 80–59 win over San Francisco and then a 71–62 victory over Pacific. The Bulldogs boast the fourth-best point differential in the country and have won 20 of their last 22 games played. In a week where consistency was hard to come by, Gonzaga will be rewarded by the voters with a rise up the poll.
9. Purdue Boilermakers
Previous Ranking: 7
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 26 vs. Michigan State, March 1 at Ohio State
The Boilermakers were carved up by Michigan at home in a game in which they didn’t look as if they belonged on the same floor as the nation’s then-top ranked team. But Purdue rebounded in a big way with an impressive, 29-point intraconference win over a solid Indiana team. As such, the Boilermakers shouldn’t fall too far in the poll, and next week offers a quick chance to make up ground with a date vs. Michigan State.
10. Virginia Cavaliers
Previous Ranking: 14
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 vs. NC State, Feb. 28 at Duke
With North Carolina’s expected slide down the rankings, Virginia officially cemented itself as the ACC’s second-best team behind Duke by routing Georgia Tech and surviving a scare against a sneaky-good Miami team. Potentially entrenched inside the Top-10, a Feb. 28 showdown against Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium looms.
11. Michigan State Spartans
Previous Ranking: 15
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 26 at Purdue, March 1 at Indiana
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Previous Ranking: 9
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 vs. Maryland, Feb. 28 at USC
13. Kansas Jayhawks
Previous Ranking: 8
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 23 vs. Houston, Feb. 28 at Arizona
14. Illinois Fighting Illini
Previous Ranking: 10
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 27 vs. Michigan
15. St. John’s Red Storm
Previous Ranking: 17
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 at UConn, Feb. 28 vs. Villanova
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Previous Ranking: 13
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 vs. Cincinnati, Feb. 28 at Iowa State
17. BYU Cougars
Previous Ranking: 23
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 vs. UCF, Feb. 28 at West Virginia
18. Alabama Crimson Tide
Previous Ranking: 25
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 vs. Mississippi State, Feb. 28 at Tennessee
19. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Previous Ranking: 22
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 at Eastern Michigan, Feb. 27 at Western Michigan
20. Saint Louis Billikens
Previous Ranking: 18
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 at Dayton, Feb. 28 vs. Duquesne
21. Arkansas Razorbacks
Previous Ranking: 20
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 vs. Texas A&M, Feb. 28 at Florida
22. Vanderbilt Commodores
Previous Ranking: 19
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 25 vs. Georgia, Feb. 28 at Kentucky
23. North Carolina Tar Heels
Previous Ranking: 16
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 23 vs. Louisville, Feb. 28 vs. Virginia Tech
24. Louisville Cardinals
Previous Ranking: 21
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 23 at North Carolina, Feb. 28 at Clemson
25. Tennessee Volunteers
Previous Ranking: NR
Upcoming Schedule: Feb. 24 at Missouri, Feb. 28 vs. Alabama
More College Basketball on Sports Illustrated
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Projecting the Men's College Basketball AP Top 25: Duke, Arizona Rise After Big Wins.
