The Chargers have until Tuesday to cut their roster from 90 to 53, the first year that the NFL has consolidated cutdown dates to one afternoon.
Here’s where I think LA will land with their initial roster by the time the dust settles.
Quarterback (2): Justin Herbert, Easton Stick
Herbert and Stick are locks for this roster, especially with Stick taking every rep in the Chargers’ second preseason game. Duggan is the question mark here, but ultimately I think Los Angeles tries to sneak him through to the practice squad.
The Chargers barely gave their seventh-round rookie any reps in the preseason – he finished with just 15 pass attempts across two games. Both times he played, LA ran the ball an overwhelming amount. Duggan never was close to Stick for the QB2 job, and it seems like the Chargers believe he’s a long way off from being a rosterable quarterback.
The question then becomes whether or not Duggan makes it through waivers. LA already spent a draft pick on the QB because they were concerned another team would outbid them for his services as a UDFA. The NFL’s new rules on emergency quarterbacks could also come into play here: as long as a third quarterback is on your 53-man roster, you can dress them as an extra active player in case of injury to your other passing options. That may affect the way some teams build their roster, which could lead them to poach Duggan from the Chargers.
For that reason, I see a world in which LA keeps the rookie on the 53-man roster. But with only 15 pass attempts and college film on tape for other teams to evaluate, ultimately I think the Chargers will be confident enough to try to stash Duggan on the practice squad.
Running Back (3): Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller
Undrafted rookie Elijah Dotson is a fantastic story, but a bit of shine came off last week against the Saints. Dotson took six carries for just 21 yards and dropped two passes from Stick in key moments. On Friday, he rebounded against the 49ers but didn’t have the kind of statement game he opened the preseason with.
Ekeler and Kelley both are on expiring contracts, which makes this a potentially significant season for Spiller. The fourth-round pick in 2022 has improved as a runner this preseason but will likely start the season as RB3. He and Kelley will be asked to contribute on special teams as well, especially with the mid-August waiving of Larry Rountree III.
Fullback (1): Zander Horvath
Kellen Moore’s offense doesn’t use a fullback much, but Horvath has already become a stalwart on special teams. He’s a starter on all four units (kickoff, kick return, punt, and punt return) and will make the roster for that alone.
A college running back, Horvath may also potentially factor in as a short yardage back, further minimizing the need for a fourth running back on the 53 man roster.
Wide Receiver (6): Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, Keelan Doss
Jalen Guyton returned to the field last week for rehab work, but it still looks as though he’ll open the season on the PUP list, which will keep him out of the first four games of the season. That leaves a spot on the roster open, with a hotly contested competition between Doss and John Hightower.
Hightower dealt with an injury earlier in training camp that kept him out of the first preseason game against the Rams and has overall been a smidge less consistent than Doss. Hightower has also been working out of the slot more, which provides a harder path to playing time with Allen, Williams, and Davis likely to take reps from that spot.
Doss isn’t the burner that Hightower is, but he has the size and style the Chargers like in their outside receivers. He’s been peppered with targets this preseason and should provide quality depth if Williams, Palmer, or Johnston have to miss time with injuries.
Tight End (4): Gerald Everett, Donald Parham Jr., Tre' McKitty, Stone Smartt
Everett hasn’t played this preseason and should be a major factor in this Chargers offense. While Parham and McKitty haven’t been stellar this preseason, both are still theoretically the best players for their specific roles on this team. (Parham is the best seam threat; McKitty is the best in-line blocker.)
The wild card here is Smartt, who’s had the strongest offseason of the players not named Everett in this room. The undrafted player from Old Dominion played in seven games as a rookie due to injuries after converting to tight end from quarterback. He’s taken a step forward as both a receiver and a blocker, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see his snap count ramp up as the season progresses.
Offensive Line (9): Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson, Corey Linsley, Jamaree Salyer, Trey Pipkins III, Foster Sarell, Will Clapp, Jordan McFadden, Zack Bailey
The starting five here is set and has been since the opening of training camp, an important development for a Chargers line that’s been a bit more fluid in years past. Linsley has been away from practice lately due to his new twin children, but should plug back in as an All-Pro caliber center in no time.
Depth-wise, Sarell has been a rollercoaster at swing tackle, but the Chargers don’t have a better option nor do I believe they’ll be aggressive in finding an outside alternative. Clapp is the backup center and has kept the offensive line on schedule all preseason. McFadden and Bailey have been working with the second team all preseason, supplanting Johnson and Salyer, who have played a handful of snaps in both games.
For that reason, I think Bailey makes the roster over Brenden Jaimes, who’s been working at guard and center in the second half of preseason games. Bailey has tackle/guard flexibility, which is a more dire need for the Chargers at this juncture. Should he clear waivers, I’d expect Jaimes to return to the practice squad.
Defensive Line (6): Sebastian Joseph-Day, Morgan Fox, Austin Johnson, Scott Matlock, Christopher Hinton, David Moa
Austin Johnson’s return from the PUP list makes this a difficult decision between Hinton, Moa, and veteran Nick Williams. Two of those three players should make the roster with Otito Ogbonnia likely to start the season on PUP. Hinton and Moa have been more consistently disruptive in the preseason, however, and I think that Williams will join the practice squad as one of LA’s veteran allowances.
CJ Okoye has been a phenomenal story this preseason, but the Chargers have an exemption to keep him on the practice squad as a 17th member through the International Player Pathway Program. For that reason, I doubt he’s even in consideration for a spot on the 53 man roster.
This group of six gives LA two players each at 1, 3, and 5 technique, and all three backups have a bit of flexibility along the line. Expect Joseph-Day and Johnson to take the bulk of reps on early downs, with Fox playing plenty of snaps as an interior pass rusher.
EDGE (4): Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Chris Rumph II, Tuli Tuipulotu
No debate here. Rumph and Tuipulotu have been a monstrous duo in the preseason. Rumph looks bigger and has improved as a run defender, while Tuipulotu has flashed as both a pass rusher and exterior run defender. Mack and Bosa are both top 15 players at their position.
If Rumph and Tuipulotu look the way they have in the preseason once the games start to count, the Chargers should have one of the best pass rushing rooms in the NFL. A fifth player, even with Carlo Kemp and Andrew Farmer flashing in the preseason, simply would never see the field and thus that roster spot can be better utilized elsewhere.
Expect Kemp, Farmer, and Brevin Allen to be potential practice squad additions.
Linebacker (5): Eric Kendricks, Kenneth Murray Jr., Daiyan Henley, Nick Niemann, Amen Ogbongbemiga
Kendricks and Murray will be your starters to open the season – neither has played a snap in the preseason. Niemann and Ogbongbemiga are core special teamers and the Chargers are confident in Ogbongbemiga’s plug-in ability on defense.
Henley, LA’s third round pick, has looked the part in the preseason and will split time between linebacker and special teams to start the season. He’s looked proficient in coverage against running backs and has fit the run well, which could provide a path to playing time sooner or later.
Cornerback (5): JC Jackson, Michael Davis, Asante Samuel Jr., Ja’Sir Taylor, Deane Leonard
The Chargers essentially wrapped this room up when they waived Kemon Hall with an injury designation on August 16. Hall was far from guaranteed a roster spot as a sixth corner, but he’s been a productive special teams player in his tenure with Los Angeles and had a shot at cracking the roster before his injury. With Hall gone, the sixth corner is undrafted rookie Tiawan Mullen, who’s shown flashes but is much more likely to be a practice squad player to continue his development.
Jackson and Davis will start on the outside once Jackson is ready to return from his patellar tendon injury, whether that’s in Week 1 or later. Samuel will start in the slot and kick outside if Jackson or Davis miss time. Taylor will rotate onto the field in the slot to add run defense and continue his role on special teams. Leonard is another core special teamer who’s looked much improved at outside cornerback this preseason.
Safety (5): Derwin James Jr., Alohi Gilman, JT Woods, Raheem Layne, Mark Webb Jr.
Originally, I had Mark Webb Jr. off the roster as the 54th man, but ultimately I think a solid performance against the 49ers starting offense on Friday night tips the scales in his favor.
Webb will primarily play special teams, but the Chargers have always been high on his ability as a safety. Injuries have been the primary obstacle in his career, but the third-year player enters the season healthy after a minor nick kept him out of the Saints preseason game.
James and Gilman will start at safety, with Woods coming in when James kicks down into the box as a de facto linebacker. The third rounder from a season ago is beginning to look like the player the Chargers thought he could be, shutting down tight ends in coverage and giving at least positive effort in the run game. Layne has flashed as a punt gunner, and will likely play primarily in that role unless injuries affect the depth chart.
Specialists (3): Cameron Dicker, JK Scott, Josh Harris
Scott and Harris are locked in, the latter as a Pro Bowl level long snapper and the former as a punter that special teams coordinator Ryan Ficken has turned into a verified weapon.
The intrigue here is with the kicker competition between Dicker and Dustin Hopkins. I’ve leaned Dicker all offseason and have seen no reason to move off that prediction with Hopkins missing time due to an undisclosed injury and both players kicking well in practice and game situations.
