A UNIONIST majority in Holyrood would give the “last rites” to the “independence question”, a veteran Scottish political journalist has said.
Bernard Ponsonby, formerly STV’s special correspondent and before that political editor, said that he predicted the “messiest result” for the Scottish Parliament after the 2026 Holyrood election.
The vote could see Holyrood’s longstanding pro-independence majority overturned in favour of resurgent Unionist parties, but Ponsonby told podcast host Alex Massie that it was also possible neither side could reach a majority.
Speaking on the Ponsonby and Massie podcast, the former STV journalist said: “I think though we’re headed in 2026 for possibly the messiest result in the history of the Holyrood parliament and as I’ve said before, it may well be that a combination of two parties in the Parliament post the ’26 election can’t get to the magic figure of 65.
Very stark warning from Bernard Ponsonby on what it will mean for Scottish Independence if there is a majority of Union supporting MSPs elected in Holyrood in 2026. 👇@PonsonbyMassie pic.twitter.com/q8bu4zkM7H
— Kenneth MacRae (@kmacraeplockton) September 17, 2024
“It would be significant indeed that if you look at the 129 seats: Is there a majority for Unionist parties in the Parliament as opposed to parties who support independence?”
But he said he would not “put a bet” on the outcome of the election.
Ponsonby (below) added: “Because if there is a majority for Unionist parties in 2026, for practical purposes, the independence questions is really almost dead, that would actually give it the last rites.
“What might, might, might just kickstart it is if there is a pro-independence majority after 2026.
“And on the figures, because of the voting system, I simply at this moment in time would not put a bet on at all, as to whether or not it’s going to be a Unionist parliament or after 2026 or whether or not nationalists in one form or another could get to 65 seats.”
Recent polling has put Scottish Labour and the SNP neck and neck ahead of the next election due to take place in 2026.
Research commissioned by the anti-independence pressure group Scotland in Union found Labour were tied with the SNP on 28% in the constituency vote, while Anas Sarwar’s party had 25% on the list compared with John Swinney’s party on 24%.
The SNP were reduced at the last General Election from a 2019 victory which saw them take 48 seats, down to just nine.
The SNP have previously argued that the pro-Yes majority in Holyrood should count as a mandate for a second independence referendum, something Westminster has rejected.
