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The Conversation
The Conversation
Florent Parmentier, Secrétaire général du CEVIPOF. Enseignant, Sciences Po

Pro-Russian breakaway region Transnistria shows limits of domino theory in international relations

On 28 February, the leader of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselski, held the Seventh Congress of Deputies to discuss the implications of Moldova’s latest customs duties on Transnistrian businesses. His calls for Russia’s protection in response to Moldova’s “economic strangulation” sparked fear in many international observers of an imminent integration of the region into Russia, and even of a new frontline in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Far from the international uproar, reactions on the domestic front were much more measured. Valeriu Pașa, president of one of the main think tanks in Chisinau, Watchdog, suggested that this Congress appeared more like a manoeuvre aimed at influencing public opinion. Meanwhile, in March Modolva’s vice-prime minister tasked with the mission of reintegrating Transnistria, Oleg Serebrian, sought to allay anxieties:

“Tiraspol is attempting to avoid positioning itself in any way, balancing itself acrobatically between Moscow, Kiev and Chisinau. What we can say with certainty is that Tiraspol does not want to be involved in this conflict. In particular the administration. The business environment, as well as the population, definitely does not favour war. I have not met anyone on the left bank who says they support the war,”

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