The pro-Israel lobby in the US is airing attack ads and beginning to back primary opponents to challenge Congress members who are not voting for or supporting Israel’s war on Gaza.
During the last 10 days, groups that support Israel have launched ads in at least seven districts targeting those who have been particularly vocal in calling attention to the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, opposing Israeli military aid or criticizing Israel’s government.
The groups will probably pump tens of millions of dollars into primaries this cycle to back its candidates. While most of the targets are members of the “Squad” of progressive Democrats, one of them is a libertarian Republican who opposes foreign spending. “I don’t think [the pro-Israel] lobby can beat me, and they definitely can’t beat me with this topic,” said the Republican Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie, referring to his recent vote against military aid for Israel.
A group of Super Pacs and dark-money non-profits – most notably groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) and the Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) – tied to Israeli interests contributed about $43m to US campaigns during the last cycle, according to Open Secrets, a campaign finance watchdog.
Among its targets is the Michigan congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, the House’s only Palestinian American, who co-sponsored a resolution urging Joe Biden to call for a ceasefire. She and other progressive Democrats later opposed a bipartisan resolution expressing support for Israel that failed to mention Palestinian victims, and have not supported US military funding for Israel.
In response, the DMFI has launched a six-figure ad campaign in Tlaib’s district that opens with ominous music and an image of a narrator rattling off a list of grievances.
“She’s one of only seven Democrats in Congress to vote against missile protection for Israel, one of only nine Democrats against condemning the brutal attack on Israel by Hamas,” the narrator says. “Tell Rashida Tlaib she’s on the wrong side of history and humanity.”
Meanwhile, the Mainstream Democrats Pac, backed by the LinkedIn co-founder and billionaire Reid Hoffman, has voiced interest in supporting primary challenges against Tlaib and the progressive congresswoman Cori Bush of Missouri.
The latest round of ads also mark a shift in strategy. Attacks from these groups have typically focused on domestic issues, but this time they are hitting US lawmakers for not supporting Israel’s war effort, a move political observers say represents a risk given the divide among Democrats over the war. Israel has killed more than 10,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in retaliation for Hamas’s 7 October attacks in southern Israel, which killed more than 1,400 Israelis.
“I don’t know which polls [the pro-Israel lobby] is reading, but I’m looking at polls and not seeing an issue that there’s a lot of consensus around on the Democratic side,” said James Zogby, a pollster and founder of the Arab American Institute. “There is not a lot of thinking going on about whether this is the hand they want to play or tactic to use.” A new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that nearly half of Democrats disapprove of how Joe Biden, who has been fiercely supportive of Israel, is handling the war.
The ads are largely focused on progressive members of Congress who have been critical of Israel’s response to the 7 October Hamas attacks, especially those with the Squad, whose members have not shied away from condemning Israel’s ongoing airstrikes in Gaza.
Critics accuse the groups of regularly misrepresenting their targets’ positions to paint them as supporters of Hamas.
In Tlaib’s case, campaigns against her may not affect her chances of re-election in 2024. The third-term congresswoman has trounced Detroit political opponents by as much as 40 points in recent elections. She represents a sizable Arab American constituency, and in recent years has recorded a 75% approval rating in her district, which she previously told the Guardian stems from running a robust constituent services program in one of the nation’s poorest districts.
Her criticism of Israel is unlikely to bother constituents, pollsters say.
“She could withstand even a well-funded primary challenge, especially if there is more than one opponent,” the Michigan pollster Bernie Porn told the Guardian.
In New York, George Latimer, a Westchester county executive who is planning a “solidarity mission” to Israel, is widely expected to announce his candidacy against the representative Jamaal Bowman, who also signed on to the ceasefire resolution. Bowman won his last challenge by more than 30 points.
Much of the Republican party is in virtual lockstep with the pro-Israel lobby, but one member is not: Massie. He said he supports Israel’s right to defend itself and condemned Hamas’s “barbaric” attacks, but he is staunchly anti-foreign aid and voted against resolutions or legislation calling for billions in US military assistance.
Aipac’s Super Pac, United Democracy Project, has spent nearly $90,000 on radio and television ads attacking Massie in his district in recent weeks. Aipac has unsuccessfully tried to unseat him in past cycles, Massie said, adding he was “not worried” about a promised primary challenge.
“That’s just not something that motivates people in my district to vote, and [Aipac] knows that,” Massie said. He believes the pro-Israel groups may continue to invest in attack ads even if it probably cannot unseat him because it helps the groups raise money from donors and sends messages to others in Congress.
Others might be more vulnerable. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar narrowly beat Don Samuels, a former Minneapolis city councilman who is expected to soon announce a rematch, while another challenger, attorney Sarah Gad, is attempting to turn the war into a campaign issue.
In Pittsburgh, the United Democracy Project spent $2m in 2022 opposing the congresswoman Summer Lee in the primary, which she won by one point. Israeli interest groups are now backing her opponent, Bhavini Patel, a borough councilwoman in the Pittsburgh area. Patel is making Israel a central issue, and taking aim at Lee’s response to the Hamas attacks.
“Our member of Congress waited to speak out, and then offered qualified remarks,” Patel said. “Her belated statement fell short on unequivocally condemning Hamas’s terrorist attack on innocent Israeli citizens, suggesting they not be allowed to defend themselves.”
Lee issued a statement on X the day of the attack that read “I strongly condemn the horrifying attack”. She also mentioned Palestinian civilian victims.
Earlier this month, she directly addressed efforts to unseat her.
“We condemn Hamas. We mourn the killing of innocent Israelis. We continue demanding safe return of hostages,” Lee wrote on X. “Certain Super PACs & their friends wanna threaten my community’s votes for supporting peace … but my community is with me against war, for lasting peace, and against killing innocent people.”
• This article was amended on 11 November 2023 to clarify Thomas Massie’s position on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
