PLAID Cymru are just one point behind Labour in Wales, a new poll of Senedd voting intention has found.
The results raise questions about whether the party will be able to hold onto power in Cardiff, where it has ruled since devolution in 1999, at the next devolved elections in 2026.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said that the results showed Labour and the pro-independence Plaid Cymru were “neck and neck” – but that no party would come close to a majority.
Members of the Senedd will be elected through a proportional closed list system in 2026, with a newly expanded parliament to fill. An Act passed in May means that 96 MSs will be elected to represent Wales, an expansion on the 60 seats that were created in the 1990s.
Larner’s estimates, reported by nation.cymru, put Labour on 25%, Plaid Cymru on 24%, the Tories on 16%, Reform on 16%, the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party on 7%, the Green Party on 6%, and the LibDems on 6%.
A projection said that this would result in, on an average of possibilities, Labour on 28.7 seats, Plaid Cymru on 28.0 seats, Reform on 16.2 seats, the Tories on 15.1 seats, the Greens on 3.1 seats, the LibDems on 3.0 seats and the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party on 1.8.
Larner used data from the 2024 Welsh Election Study – which interviewed a representative sample of 2500 people both before and after the General Election – to draw up the polling figures.
Larner said: “Multiple points are worth addressing here. The first is the incredibly close race for the largest party, with Labour and Plaid Cymru neck and neck. One byproduct of this tight race is that no single party is close to winning a majority of seats in the new expanded Senedd, requiring some sort of agreement between several parties.
“Just as there is a tight race at the top, the competition for the third largest party is also incredibly close. As things stand however, there is little prospect of a combined right-of-centre government (even when including Abolish in this calculation).
“The Greens, Liberal Democrats, and Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party are projected to win far fewer seats, but given the lack of clear government formation combinations could end up wielding substantial amounts of power, acting as potential kingmakers.”
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth welcomed the poll, saying it showed the “people of Wales are clearly sensing change, losing faith in Labour’s ability to lead and looking to Plaid Cymru for a new, positive kind of leadership”.
There’s a long way to go before 2026 but the potential to end a century of @WelshLabour domination in Wales is very real. Get involved in making that change happen: join @Plaid_Cymru https://t.co/Sile4kQ2uS
— Plaid Cymru Wrecsam (@PlaidWrecsam) July 29, 2024
He went on: “The chaos under Vaughan Gething won’t be fixed by the coronation of Eluned Morgan; Welsh Labour’s challenges are much more fundamental.
“After 25 years in power, Welsh Labour are tired and directionless. They have utterly lost the sense of responsibility and discipline that are central to being an effective party of government.
"Instead, they are scrambling to fix their own chaos at a time when people need a government committed to public service.”
Eluned Morgan, a Labour MS and life peer, was brought in to replace him without a contest.
