Robert Jenrick is leading the race to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative party leader after a first round of MP voting that placed the former migration minister top and eliminated Priti Patel, the former home secretary.
Jenrick came top of a closely contested ballot on Wednesday, winning the support of 28 of his parliamentary colleagues, ahead of Kemi Badenoch, who won 22 votes, and James Cleverly, who got 21.
Of the six candidates, Patel came last with 14 votes despite being the best-known candidate outside Westminster. She is now out of the race having polled just behind Mel Stride (16 votes) and Tom Tugendhat (17 votes).
The results, which were closer than many had expected, leave Jenrick narrowly favourite with the bookmakers, with much riding on the performance of the final four candidates at the Tory conference later this month.
Luke Tryl, the former Conservative adviser who now runs the polling company More in Common, said: “This is way more wide open than people were expecting. Party conference is going to be absolutely crucial.”
Jenrick’s supporters were delighted with their candidate’s performance, saying they had expected him to win between 22 and 26 votes.
While Jenrick is not one of the more high-profile candidates among the wider public, he has won support in Westminster by pitching to the right, especially on migration, despite his previous reputation as a centrist.
John Lamont, one of the MPs backing him, said the result was “very positive”, adding: “He is the one candidate who can unite all parts of the party.”
Another MP described Jenrick’s campaigning over the summer as “energetic”, adding that he had worked on his speaking skills during that time. “He and James Cleverly were head and shoulders above Kemi at the hustings [on Tuesday].”
Badenoch, the combative former business secretary, has topped recent polls of Conservative members, but is now facing a battle to become one of the final two candidates to proceed to a vote of the membership.
One official working on her campaign said: “Jenrick has the support of the right of the party, but we are winning votes on the right, left and centre of the party.”
Badenoch, who has espoused outspoken rightwing views on issues of identity and culture but has rejected Jenrick’s “easy answers” on immigration, is now pitching herself to colleagues as the more centrist of the two frontrunners. “She has the broader policy platform and appeals to a broader spectrum of the party,” her official said.
Tim Montgomerie, the founder of the Conservative grassroots website ConservativeHome, said: “Some members doubt how sincere Jenrick is in his pitch. He has quite a lot of work left to do, while Badenoch’s launch really resonated with a lot of people.”
On the left of the party, Cleverly, the former home secretary, picked up significantly more support than Tugendhat, who used to be security minister. While both men have run campaigns heavily focused on national security, Cleverly now looks the more likely to reach the final two.
One supporter of Tugendhat called his performance “pretty disappointing … at the bottom end of expectations”. A supporter of Cleverly described the contest as now being between Jenrick and Badenoch on the right and Cleverly in the centre.
Supporters of Patel, 52, were disappointed by the result, especially given her relatively high profile as a former home secretary and once darling of the Tory right. Patel was a close ally of the former prime minister Boris Johnson but did not return to the frontbench after Johnson stood down.
One MP said many of Patel’s expected supporters had gone to Jenrick instead, saying: “Jenrick had a better operation, and there was a feeling that she is from a previous generation and it is time to move on to someone new.”
After her defeat, Patel herself posted on X: “To win back the trust of the British people we must unite around our Conservative values and show how they can offer solutions to the problems our country faces.”
