The Duke of Cambridge turns 40 today. It’s an event which has been marked in his signature manner: with a mix of traditional and contemporary celebrations. On the traditional side, there’s a new £5 coin, which places his royal head alongside Her Majesty The Queen’s £1 in our wallets, and a carefree family photo taken on a holiday in Jordan, with the couple’s children in high street clothes rather than the riches and ruffles of earlier portraits. His key birthday interview has taken place with the Big Issue magazine — a coup to take on more direct sponsorship of social themes and a pledge to do more to highlight the “overlooked and misunderstood” problem of homelessness.
As well as being a tribute to the “inimitable style” of his late mother, Diana, it’s a pointer to William’s intention to embrace causes intended to kickstart politicians into focussing on neglected areas of national life and a subtle but deft nudge to the Government to focus more on the matter. It is also a reminder that royal birthdays are more than mere staging posts in a lifespan. They provide a checklist of succession and highlight where a key member of The Firm fits in the grand plan which, is ultimately, to keep Britain’s beloved — if accident-prone — monarchy in business for the next generations. That task has higher salience in William’s case as the Queen’s reign draws to a close.
Behind the scenes, a large team has been working on the Cambridges’ personal strategy and, crucially, where that fits in with the House of Windsor’s centuries-long series of ‘Succession’. One confidante of both William and his father notes that the main concern for both of them is ending up as the “meat in the sandwich”; a role squeezed between the head that wears the Crown and what follows for other prominent members and their standing. The challenge of being heir-in-waiting is a daunting one. Charles has often struggled with the “waiting game” in a system which does not (so far) allow for royal retirement, so that the age at which heirs succeed to the top job rises with greater longevity, risking frustration among those in “limbo”.
As such, the Cambridges’ are focussed on how to use the next few decades to reinvigorate an institution which is loved by the public but feels less relevant to millennials than to their parents. Closer to Kensington Palace, there is much internal pondering over how to deal with the headaches of Prince Andrew’s fate in the wake of his sundry misjudgements in the Epstein relationship and the unresolved feud with William’s younger brother Harry. William has stood firm against giving ground to either of them and is vocally opposed to allowing Andrew any remaining role. The saga of an unhappy family looks set to continue for some time.
Still, William does not look like a man weighed down by midlife anxiety. He has settled into a stable domestic order and both he and his wife, who is now keen to be formally referred to as queenly Catherine than middle-class Kate, can celebrate with a number of low-key dinners and gatherings at Anmer Hall, the couple’s countryside bolthole in Norfolk.
Location matters and William has proved to be no slouch at implementing the couple’s wishes to decide where they live and what message that sends. The move to move into Adelaide cottage on the Windsor Estate is conditioned in part by the wish to send a clear message that after the Queen’s reign, William will be at the heart of the ancestral seat — albeit in a modest four-bedroom dwelling with limited staff. It also shows the steelier side of a family man who has decided that the goldfish bowl of posh London nursery and prep schools makes life too difficult for a brood the couple want to protect from public glare during their childhood. The cloistered world of “Berk-prep” schools in the county, close to Kate ‘s close-knit family, is more protected from nosey classmates’ families than Thomas’ in Battersea where Prince George is currently at school. Proximity to Kate’s parents is also a factor. They have always acted as a refuge and a relaxed contrast to the structures of palace life.
In some ways, the breach with Harry has also foregrounded William’s strengths — a more even temperament, the ability to deal with the weight of public expectation and the strictures of royal life which alienated his younger brother — especially after his marriage to the more free-wheeling demands of Meghan Markle.
Contact between the brothers at the Queen’s platinum jubilee celebrations was sparse and, according to sources close to the planning, deliberately so. The Cambridges focussed largely on a trip to Wales ( a nod to the other succession which looms when Charles becomes king and William steps into his shoes). That will also bring challenges for William, who has largely favoured “big bets” on significant foreign visits closely coordinated with the Foreign Office — most recently to the Caribbean, where he broached the touchy subject of colonialism and its legacy for the Commonwealth. An upcoming visit to Australia is rumoured to be in the planning stages and is intended to shore up shaky support for retaining a British monarch as head of state as republican sentiment rises. The Cambridges have adroitly positioned themselves abroad as the “first couple” — visits to France and Germany have been more frequent and have resulted in a greater profile in the European press. Charles and Camilla, by contrast, have spent more time supporting the Queen by taking on more of her domestic engagements. That stance is intended to enhance Charles’s less secure popularity when the time comes for his transition to the throne.
According to senior staffers, the circumstances of the jubilee celebrations drew Charles and his eldest son closer together than ever. The friction with Harry and necessity for Andrew to have a low-key role means that the active royal family shrunk. “There was a sense when the Prince of Wales, the Duchess of Cornwall and Duke and Duchess of Cambridge along with their children were on the balcony together of “This is us” now. They know very well that they are in this together for the foreseeable future.” Also, the source adds, “there’s a reason you didn’t see a huge gathering of the rest of the family”. It reflected a long-standing desire on Charles’s part for a “slimmed down” monarchy, but also reflects the difficulty of any decisions about the appearance of Harry and Andrew.
Charles and William have a close “operational relationship”, according to staffers, ensuring, for example, that their planned tours don’t clash. This week Prince Charles jets off to the heads of Commonwealth meeting, coincidentally in Rwanda, the subject of behind-the-scenes friction between the Prince and the government over its controversial policy to resettle failed asylum seekers there. But royal strategists believe that high-profile royal tours are the “oil in the engine” of the monarchy - and the secret sauce for the aspiration to enhance “global Britain” in alliances and trade. That means that Charles and William will continue the roadshow - and expand the choice of destinations.
When it comes to William’s political views, he’s not inclined to make interventions in controversial debates as his father has in the past — and more recently by wading into the Rwanda row. But William does embrace environmentalism and founded the Earthshot Prize last year, which gives funding to projects coining ingenious solutions to global warming. “William is solutions-focussed,” says an ally involved in the endeavour. “From his earlier experience as an air-ambulance pilot and Sandhurst training, he has always been more inclined to the practical than the theoretical.”
It is no secret among those close to the younger royals that Kate and William struggled in the early years of their marriage to find a balance of roles, which led to criticism of the duchess’ reticent role. That has been addressed by allowing each to play to their strengths. She is better at one-off droll comments and emotional connection - hence her appearances in videos boosting drooping spirits during the pandemic. William has little interest in the arts, whereas Kate has taken a higher-profile role supporting photography and using her patronage to support the National Portrait Gallery and V&A museum, where she often makes surprise visits, latterly to a Rafael exhibition.
Socially, the couple are unadventurous, relying on a discreet circle of friends (often intermarried and definitely from a private school and country network). If they have a deficit, it is a tendency to move in confined circles, without much curiosity for social groups outside the familiar. This reflects their wariness of newcomers or leaks. Anyone caught gossiping to the makers of The Crown Netflix series is quickly frozen out. The major touchpoint with popular culture is their shared loved of football, which, as a friend points out, “presents a challenge when they can’t appear to be seen to cheer more for one side than other.”
The second heir to the throne will be judged on his ability to connect in his fifth decade. Few doubt that there is a tough task ahead to stabilise relations with his younger brother and end the bitterness of the “Prince over the water”. That looks like a work in slow progress and the suggestion by proxies of the Sussexes that an invite to their daughter Lilibet’s birthday party was rebuffed landed badly. More likely, the rapprochement will be partial and aimed more at avoiding awkwardness at major occasions. The brothers were once incredibly close. I watched the relationship between them at William’s wedding to Kate, where Harry acted as a mirthful and irreverent attendant to the groom. The laidback affinity between the two looked truly unforced and cheerful. The current bitterness over the handling of Meghan’s arrival ended that and looks unlikely to be restored soon.
There is also a tougher side to William than his genial presence in public suggests. He was said, for example, to have given BBC executives a “blistering” dressing down for the Martin Bashir Panorama interview with his late mother which had been secured thanks to “deceitful behaviour”. And — though he faces the uphill tasks of navigating a fractious royal clan and carving out his role in a monarchy going through a period of deep transition — he is, at 40, sure about how he intends to run his life and pursue the vague but vital role his birth has allotted him.
As a child, he gave his father a jokey badge saying “ life begins at 40” for Charles’s birthday. At the same milestone, William cannot know how exactly his next decade will pan out, but he intends to shape it on his own terms. Given the pitfalls of the unpredictable royal story, being a happy prince at 40 is as good a shock absorber as any to the bumps along the way to succession.
