I took a bit of a step back in Week 11, going 3-3 on my picks. But never will I apologize for not seeing big games coming from Mac Jones or Kenny Pickett — big by passing yards at least, as each hit their over.
Anyway, we’re still 14-10 in our last three weeks of picks, so the vibes remain high. Though I’m giving Pickett another opportunity to ruin those vibes in Week 12, this time picking the under on receiving yards for one of his top wideouts (I can’t imagine Dionate Johnson’s vibes are too high right now).
Let’s get into these picks.
Week 11: 3-3
2022 record: 24-35
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Under 48.5 rushing yards (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Hurts hadn’t rushed for more than 28 yards in four straight weeks prior to last Sunday’s 16-carry, 86-yard performance. It was only the fourth time all season he eclipsed this 48.5 line. I’m expecting something closer to his season average of 44 against Green Bay.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders: Over 21.5 receiving yards (at Seattle Seahawks)
Jacobs is averaging 33 receiving yards in the past three games, including a season-high 51 against the Broncos last week. Averaging four targets a game, he should see plenty opportunities to get over 21 yards.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 45.5 receiving yards (at Indianapolis Colts)
The switch from Mitchell Trubisky to Kenny Pickett has done little to help Diontae Johnson’s production. In fact, his target share continues to drop. He’s gotten five targets in each of the last two games and has caught for more than 45 yards just once in the last five games.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: Under 49.5 rushing yards (at San Francisco 49ers)
Kamara could end up having a big game as a receiver if San Francisco can get ahead and force New Orleans into a pass-heavy game script. But that will make it tough for him to crack 50 yards on the ground against a really stout run defense. He hasn’t rushed for that many yards in four weeks.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: Over 61.5 receiving yards (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta’s secondary has allowed the third-most yards to wide receivers this year, and McLaurin is one of the best in the business. He hasn’t gone consecutive games with fewer than 70 yards all season. So after catching for 55 yards last Sunday, he’s due for a bigger game.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Under 223.5 passing yards (at Philadelphia Eagles)
Green Bay’s young receiving core could struggle in a big way against a strong Eagles secondary, giving Rodgers a hard time trying to crack this number. Besides, the Packers’ best chance to win this game is by running the ball. That has to be the gameplan.
